Don't expect Economists to know what is going on...

That said, forewarned, is forearmed. So the question is, hubba hubba, who do you trust? Answer: trust your gut, and seek (truly seek), and you shall find the truth.

clipped from www.nytimes.com As Shiller told me, “Nouriel has a different way of seeing things than most economists: he gets into everything.” After analyzing the markets that collapsed in the ’90s, Roubini set out to determine which country’s economy would be the next to succumb to the same pressures. His surprising answer: the United States’. By late 2004 he had started to write about a “nightmare hard landing scenario for the United States.” Recessions are signal events in any modern economy. And yet remarkably, the profession of economics is quite bad at predicting them. in 97 percent of the cases, the study found, the economists failed to predict the coming contraction a year in advance. On those rare occasions when economists did successfully predict recessions, they significantly underestimated the severity of the downturns. Worse, many of the economists failed to anticipate recessions that occurred as soon as two months later.