"Those brave enough to predict oil prices are usually wrong"

Usually. And in this case you Mr. Butler. Check out nthe folks over at TheOilDrum.com. They're usually right.

clipped from www.ft.com Prices could break through the symbolic $100 a barrel level – only this time they will be heading downwards. Those brave enough to predict oil prices are usually wrong, but the perception that the fundamentals have changed has begun to affect the trading market and behaviour of speculators. That is why the Russian invasion of Georgia had so little impact. Speculators in particular are pulling out of oil – with a few beginning to bet on a further substantial fall. In the words of one London trader: when prices have risen by more than 100 per cent in 12 months the chances are that the next move will be downwards.