Tuesday, May 27, 2008
IEA inquiry into whether oil supplies will run dry by 2012
| SIMON BAIN | May 26 2008 |
The International Energy Agency has ordered an inquiry into whether the world could run out of oil in four years' time, it was reported yesterday.
The IEA has concerns about what might happen in 2012, when demand for oil, boosted by the rapid growth of the Chinese and Indian economies, is expected to have reached 95 million barrels a day. Global supply at that point is projected at only 96 million barrels a day. Such a thin margin would be vulnerable to any sudden supply crisis in volatile countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela or Iraq, now estimated to have overtaken Saudi Arabia as the biggest oil nation.
The IEA said its inquiries would form part of short and long-term forecasts to be published in July and again in November. Its energy research chief, Lawrence Eagles, said: "Up to now we have believed that supply can cope with demand. One caveat is that we don't know for certain whether estimates of reserves in countries such as Saudi Arabia are entirely accurate.NVDL: Weren't they saying like a minute ago that we were fine until 2040 or 2070? Now suddenly it's 2012. Errr...I'm looking at my watch. That's 4 years from now...not 40...4.
By the way, we will never make 90mbpd, we peaked at about 87.5 mbpd, [In 2006, the world oil production took a downturn from 84.631 to 84.597 million barrels per day] and we've fallen off since. 87 is the most we'd ever produce, and anything above that is an interesting if pointless fantasy. People are also saying that a US and UK recession will bring oil prices down. I'm no so sure its true. When you starve a drug addict of a fix, do they want it more or less? So now, oil will start galloping soon. It's stuff too precious to be driving out to the movies, or the mall. This stuff is used to grow food, to fight the insects that eat crops, and we drive it out on happy holidays and to get take-out. Very silly humans!
Kunstler: Anxious Hiatus
In the U.S., data released on Friday showed that highway miles driven in March fell 4.3 percent from a year earlier, the first time this has happened in March since the last major oil shock in 1979.
Loveliness was everywhere this holiday weekend in upstate New York, and it was probably hard for many to believe that the wayward nation would return to the dread uncertainty of life in the crash lane when the barbeques were over. There was even a wan overtone to the late-night sports news about the Indy 500 race -- as though the spectacle of cars droning round and round a speed oval symbolized the futility of American life in this moment of our history.
I had a discussion with one guy at Sunday night party about the prospects for hydrogen-powered cars. We rehearsed the usual reasons why such a system was unlikely to get up-and-running -- and then he said, "...but what if we took all the money from the war and put it into something like the space program and... they came up with some way to make it happen...!"
This is certainly the golden heart of the great wish out there, as the empire of Happy Motoring begins to run down on $4 gasoline. It seems inconceivable that a society so bold as to put men on the moon (fer crissake) can't overcome such a prosaic problem as finding something other than oil byproducts to run our cars on.
From this holy font all cognitive dissonance flows.
It seems inconceivable, but it begins to look like that's the way it really is, and we just can't accept it.
Of course, one of the reasons that Americans are so anxious to get away on a holiday weekend from the places where they live is because we did such a perfect job the past fifty years turning our home-places into utterly unrewarding, graceless nowheres, where the private realm of the beige houses is saturated in monotony, and the public realm has been reduced to the berm between the WalMart and the strip mall. Now, we barely have the gasoline to run all this stuff, let alone escape from it for a weekend.
We're at a dead end with all this and a lot of Americans are paralyzed with fear about what's next. This may actually be a deeper fear than the anxiety about money and banking in 1933, when Franklin Roosevelt was sworn in and tried to reassure the nation. Back then, despite the grave problems of capital, we still had plenty of everything: plenty of good productive land, plenty of manpower earnestly eager for hard work, plenty of ore in the ground, shining cities equipped with excellent streetcar systems, a railroad network that was the envy of the world, sturdy small towns and small cities fully equipped with locally-owned business, and a vast number of small family farms that could re-absorb family members unable to get wages in the cities. Most of all, we had plenty of oil in the ground, and the world's biggest industry for getting it out and selling it. What we didn't have in 1933 was cash money.
The crisis at hand now goes way beyond a crisis of capital -- though that is certainly part of it. Notice how many of the things we had in 1933 are gone now. Our cities, with a few exceptions, are imploded husks. Our small towns and small cities (Schenectady, home of G.E.!) are gutted, especially in terms of locally-owned business. Our passenger rail system is worse than anything a Soviet ministry might produce (while the airline industry that replaced it is dying of a kind of financial hemorrhagic fever). Our local transit hardly exists anymore. Family farms have all but disappeared. We have plenty of manpower earnestly eager to become American Idols (but certainly not for heavy labor). Our oil industry now supplies only a fraction of the world's daily supply (and not even enough for half of our own needs).
What happens now? We face not just change but convulsive change. The public senses the rapid unraveling of our car-centric arrangements. In the week before the holiday, gasoline prices went up several cents each day -- in upstate New York, it crossed the $4 mark and kept going up. The trucking system faces collapse as diesel fuel price-rises exceed even the rise in gasoline, and the vast number of independent truckers who make up the system confront the individual calamity of a personal business failure. American Airlines last week announced severe measures to keep operating through the fall of 2008. But none of the airlines can feasibly carry on as usual with oil prices above $120-a-barrel -- and the ominous message is of a business model that has no conceivable way to adapt to the new reality. Most likely, in a very few years air travel will no longer be a "consumer" enterprise.
In the background of these practical problems -- "off screen" during the holiday of car races and ball games -- is a crisis of capital orders of magnitude worse than the one faced by Franklin Roosevelt in 1933. For, behind the "liquidity" (i.e. insolvency) issues faced by the big institutions lurks the Godzilla of the derivatives trade, which has evolved into a black hole capable of sucking all notional "money" into oblivion. That "money," which represents the aggregate value of our society, also amounts to the emperor's new clothes of an empire in serious trouble. As the black hole of derivatives sucks away these "new clothes," America will stand naked against the elements of fate.
NVDL: Whether it's summer or winter, we're heading for winter, one of the grimmest in history.
Twisters plucking up Americans like hungry frogs
About 100 people have died in U.S. twisters so far this year, the worst toll in a decade, according to the weather service, and the danger has not passed yet. Tornado season typically peaks in the spring and early summer, then again in the late fall.
Iowa Homeland Security administrator Dave Miller said seven people were killed Sunday by a tornado in northeast Iowa — five from Parkersburg, a town of about 1,000 some 80 miles northeast of Des Moines — and two from nearby New Hartford. At least 50 injuries were reported.
"Occasionally we have a death but we have warning system. Seven deaths. It's been a long time since we've had those kinds of injuries and deaths reported," Miller said.
NVDL: All together now: "DO YOU THINK IT MIGHT HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH CLIMATE CHANGE?"
Iowa Homeland Security administrator Dave Miller said seven people were killed Sunday by a tornado in northeast Iowa — five from Parkersburg, a town of about 1,000 some 80 miles northeast of Des Moines — and two from nearby New Hartford. At least 50 injuries were reported.
"Occasionally we have a death but we have warning system. Seven deaths. It's been a long time since we've had those kinds of injuries and deaths reported," Miller said.
NVDL: All together now: "DO YOU THINK IT MIGHT HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH CLIMATE CHANGE?"
How not to NOT go to gym
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! That is the internal primal scream response that emanantes from a small reserve area of my brain that has sparked to life - a few billion nerve endings, that's all - in response to my freaking bleeping phone. It's 6:40am and there are my gym clothes, laying in wait. My eyelashes flutter weakly against the pillow, like a pair of sleepy moths.
Now I remember. I was up until 2am typing out that damned script - WHY THE WORLD NEEDS BATMAN. There is NOOOOOOO way in Gotham that I am going to get up and lift weights now. I get up and type an sms into my phone:
SOZ LATE NIGHT. WILL GYM LATER TODAY. NJOY. And off it goes. I'm supposed to be meeting A at 7am, and everybody knows (and he will soon) that there is no way that that is going to happen.
I get up to do some voiding, vaguely aware of a repetitive dream that has hooked in my consciousness. Something about a waterfall, with not much water in it, but it looks like there is...and some female leader going down it because it's a sort of a rite of passage. And then I went down. And it was supposed to flow into the sea not far away from there. Very bizarre.
So I'm back in bed, my body is basically weeping quietly (from being woken up) and I'm expecting the sandman to dump a truckload of sand on my face any minute. I glance at my watch. 7am. Then there's that irritating buzz, like a fly against a freaking window, from my phone, with a message that has come through. I resist the urge to look. Unfortunately my irritation now infects other nerve centres - previously dormant - and a few cursory thoughts flicker through my brain. WORK! BOSS! STATS! SEX AND THE CITY! I rub my nose in my pillow. Noooo. Just...nooo. I turn and check the sms:
NO WORRIES. I'M NOT GOING TO WORRY ABOUT YOUR FITNESS ANYMORE ;)
I lay back down. It's 7:12 anyway. GRRRRRR. Too late to go to gym. 7:15. 7:16. Jeepers I can't go back to sleep. At 7:21 I am out the door, in my car, and by 7:27 I am in the gym, doing pull ups. It turned out to be a lekker session - the core stuff was especially hard.
Moral of the story? Just get out the door, no matter how cold, no matter how little sleep you've had. You'll be glad you did, and it beats beating yourself up, or rehearsing excuses for why you didn't go.
Now I remember. I was up until 2am typing out that damned script - WHY THE WORLD NEEDS BATMAN. There is NOOOOOOO way in Gotham that I am going to get up and lift weights now. I get up and type an sms into my phone:
SOZ LATE NIGHT. WILL GYM LATER TODAY. NJOY. And off it goes. I'm supposed to be meeting A at 7am, and everybody knows (and he will soon) that there is no way that that is going to happen.
I get up to do some voiding, vaguely aware of a repetitive dream that has hooked in my consciousness. Something about a waterfall, with not much water in it, but it looks like there is...and some female leader going down it because it's a sort of a rite of passage. And then I went down. And it was supposed to flow into the sea not far away from there. Very bizarre.
So I'm back in bed, my body is basically weeping quietly (from being woken up) and I'm expecting the sandman to dump a truckload of sand on my face any minute. I glance at my watch. 7am. Then there's that irritating buzz, like a fly against a freaking window, from my phone, with a message that has come through. I resist the urge to look. Unfortunately my irritation now infects other nerve centres - previously dormant - and a few cursory thoughts flicker through my brain. WORK! BOSS! STATS! SEX AND THE CITY! I rub my nose in my pillow. Noooo. Just...nooo. I turn and check the sms:
NO WORRIES. I'M NOT GOING TO WORRY ABOUT YOUR FITNESS ANYMORE ;)
I lay back down. It's 7:12 anyway. GRRRRRR. Too late to go to gym. 7:15. 7:16. Jeepers I can't go back to sleep. At 7:21 I am out the door, in my car, and by 7:27 I am in the gym, doing pull ups. It turned out to be a lekker session - the core stuff was especially hard.
Moral of the story? Just get out the door, no matter how cold, no matter how little sleep you've had. You'll be glad you did, and it beats beating yourself up, or rehearsing excuses for why you didn't go.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Sunday, May 25, 2008
The Grim Reaper stretches his legs
The news is pretty grim - have you had a look?
China: 69 dams in danger after earthquake
South Africa immigrant violence leaves 25,000 displaced
Tornadoes rake Oklahoma as Midwest tallies damage
Fed warns on inflation as oil prices continue to rise
Bangladesh reports first human case of bird flu
Myanmar still in emergency after cyclone: UN aid
Buffett sees "long, deep" U.S. recession
In an Olympic year, China is scrambling to deal with imminent dam bursts, 80 000 estimated dead in earthquakes with continuing aftershocks, meanwhile the Olympic torch has been shelved. No one is thinking about that now.
South Africa, another country hoping to host 'world games' (the Soccer World Cup in 2010) is facing a lot more crisis than China. The xenophobia/mob violence is perhaps the most troubling. It ought to be obvious by now that if such large scale rioting can erupt with no warning, it can happen in 2010 without warning (that's if it dissipates in the interim), which is an unconscionable threat to the safety of tens of thousands of foreign visitors. Given the inflationary pressures at work, I predict that this violence and criminality will pick up speed towards 2010. South Africa also has many other troubles, including a dodgy electricity network, virtually no public transport and a deep seated corruption in government. The last may not seem to be a problem, except that government will say everything and do nothing, meaning we can't reasonably expect the country's problems to be solved any time soon.
The USA is experiencing crappy weather, and we will have to see whether we have another season of big hitting Hurricanes. While Americans are seeing the worst property market figures in 20 years, they are also facing stagflation - rising prices of goods, but zero growth. And as the world's largest consumer of energy (and largest polluter), at 25% (China consumes 9%), America is being winded by some very hard economic right hooks. The presidency is looking increasingly like a booby prize for whomever is unlucky enough to win it.
H5N1 has been placed on the back burner, but it hasn't disappeared. It's kicking around in Seoul, one of the most densely populated cities in the world. It's also dancing around Bangladesh, Japan and Indonesia.
Finally,if your country hasn't been mentioned above, the bad news still extends to you, because we are now moving fairly rapidly towards a global recession, and then a depression. We can expect oil prices to cruise to about $150 and obviously those commentators yelling 'bubble' will hopefully have their own thought bubbles popped. I had hoped for more sanity in our response to $135 oil. But we remain caught up in a collective sense - a delusion - that everything is just going to carry on humming. Normal is gone.
I don't know about you, but I think there has been a gut feel - among many ordinary people - that we have been heading for trouble for some time. That we just couldn't continue carrying on the way we have been. Reality may take a while still to dawn, and unfortunately when it does, people will have nervous breakdowns, systems will also break down - because even the real world can't stand too much reality. Our world has picked up a terminal disease, and has started dying.
Why is there Xenophobia in South Africa? Why now? Who is behind it? Here's a clue
When you Google Xenophobia or Johannesburg Violence you come across plenty of assessments for why this is happening. 9/10 miss the point. The clue behind this mob behaviour is that in every instance it is associated with looting, with ordinary people running around with someone elses stuff. That speaks volumes. It's a zero sum game mentality - us or you, you go (or die) and we get what you leave behind.
This is difficult for people to understand who have cars and televisions. When you see people squabbling over a stolen bag of flour, messing the snowy powder over themselves in the tug of war, it begins more obvious just how desperate the poverty must be in some of these areas. And many of the poor are suffering the highest levels of AIDS attrition. Commonly, AIDS lays waste to those old enough to work - parents. And there have been alarming reports of large numbers of youths making up these mobs.
So there you have it: poverty - which induces resentment - Aids - which induces desperation - an influx of foreigners - which provides a convenient target (for now) - ongoing price increases and Zimbabwe's continuous decline - providing a combined sense of hopelessness and fear.
My concern is that as inflationary pressures increase, this mob violence will spill over into ordinary suburbia. Its the have nots (and there are millions) against the haves.
This is difficult for people to understand who have cars and televisions. When you see people squabbling over a stolen bag of flour, messing the snowy powder over themselves in the tug of war, it begins more obvious just how desperate the poverty must be in some of these areas. And many of the poor are suffering the highest levels of AIDS attrition. Commonly, AIDS lays waste to those old enough to work - parents. And there have been alarming reports of large numbers of youths making up these mobs.
So there you have it: poverty - which induces resentment - Aids - which induces desperation - an influx of foreigners - which provides a convenient target (for now) - ongoing price increases and Zimbabwe's continuous decline - providing a combined sense of hopelessness and fear.
My concern is that as inflationary pressures increase, this mob violence will spill over into ordinary suburbia. Its the have nots (and there are millions) against the haves.
Harry Potter actor stabbed to death iover mobile phone
Police said the killing was not gang-related and yesterday, as friends laid flowers at the murder scene, close to Sidcup railway station, Lee Bentley, manager of the Metro bar, said the attack appeared to have been triggered by a row over the alleged theft of a mobile phone.
“Nine days ago, a guy came to the bar and caused trouble,” said Bentley. “He accused [Knox’s friend] Dean Saunders of stealing his phone and hit him in the face. We cleaned up Dean and barred the man.”
But the man, who is black and in his twenties, returned on Friday night armed with two knives and tried entering the bar, where Knox was a regular drinker.
What happened next is unclear, but Jade Nicholson, an assistant bar manager, said: “I saw Rob go outside and shout, ‘You pulled a knife on my brother, someone call the police’.”
Tom Hopkins, 18, who was drinking at the bar, said: “Rob had been trying to stop the trouble, it wasn’t his fault.
“All I remember was seeing Rob get stabbed in the chest. I ran over and me and my mate Tarik both tackled the black man. I jumped on top of him and he said, ‘I’ve got a knife, I’ve got a knife’. As I tried to grab the knife I didn’t realise he had another one in his other hand and he cut me in the back of the head.
“I was wrestling with him in the bushes and there were a lot of other people who were helping me out. It felt like it went on for six or seven minutes until the police arrived and then I walked around the corner from the bar. That’s when I saw Rob — it’s too horrible to describe what I saw. It was just red blood.”
Police said they were called to “a large disturbance” at the bar on Station Road at 12.07am, but Knox’s life was already seeping away. A friend, who asked not be named, said: “I had him in my arms. He said, ‘I just want some help’ and I laid him on the floor. When the paramedics came, they put pads on his chest to try to revive him, but it was obvious it was too late.”
Knox was taken to Queen Elizabeth hospital in Woolwich, southeast London, where he was pronounced dead just before 1am. A post-mortem is due to be carried out today.
Three other people were seriously injured in the attack, including Saunders, 21, who was stabbed in the neck and remains in hospital. Police said his injuries were serious but not life-threatening. Two other friends, aged 16 and 19, also received treatment.
A 21-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of murder.
More.
Cracks Appear in World's Engine
NVDL: Did you know that Saudi Arabia's output is the highest it's been in two years, and even so we're still seeing oil prices go up? The Financial Times reports the following:
Normally it takes a war to lift oil prices $10 a barrel in a week. Not this week.
A market that started on Monday wondering if a fresh record of $125 a barrel was sustainable ended by witnessing spot prices above $135 and, crucially, long-term prices moving as high as $145 a barrel.
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities at Merrill Lynch in London, added: "The oil market is avidly looking for a demand-destruction level." He said that several airlines had started cutting back flights and that high prices were hurting other transportation companies. This week's surge in prices - with spot prices up about 7 per cent and long-term prices up 15 per cent - has triggered concerns that the commodities market has become a bubble, after the booms in dotcom shares and housing.
Bombing Iran: The Clamor Persists
Normally it takes a war to lift oil prices $10 a barrel in a week. Not this week.
A market that started on Monday wondering if a fresh record of $125 a barrel was sustainable ended by witnessing spot prices above $135 and, crucially, long-term prices moving as high as $145 a barrel.
... veteran oil traders and analysts still say $150 a barrel is possible as it becomes clear that a supply crunch will hit the market in the next five years if demand growth does not slow.
NVDL: Is demand growth slowing? Did you drive less than usual this weekend? Have China and India said to their 1 billion plus populations, "Sorry guys, guess we're not invited to the party. Let's go back to the farms. Ja, just leave your cars and go back to where you came from. " No, governments and individuals will find any excuse, elect any leader, that allows them to continue consuming as we are now. Even so, it's not going to continue for a lot longer, even if we insist that that's what we want. Demand Destruction is a factor, and we're seeing demand eroding in the collapse of airlines now, but it will take longer to filter through to less vulnerable businesses, but, it will. Recession and the complete collapse of housing/property markets is the long term consequence of these high prices. The markets will choke on them, and globalisation will kick back into reverse.
Kevin Norrish, of Barclays Capital, says: "Strong oil demand, in particular from emerging giants such as India and China, along with disappointing non-Opec supply, continues to underpin oil prices."
Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia, [have] started cutting their expensive fuel subsidies, a change that signals that the first cracks in the world's engine of oil consumption are appearing.Francisco Blanch, head of commodities at Merrill Lynch in London, added: "The oil market is avidly looking for a demand-destruction level." He said that several airlines had started cutting back flights and that high prices were hurting other transportation companies. This week's surge in prices - with spot prices up about 7 per cent and long-term prices up 15 per cent - has triggered concerns that the commodities market has become a bubble, after the booms in dotcom shares and housing.
But Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, said high oil prices reflected tight supplies and growing global demand and were not driven by market speculators. "I don't think this is about financial investors," Mr Paulson told CNBC. "This is about long-term supply and demand."
By Javier Blas, more.Bombing Iran: The Clamor Persists
The Dark Knight on Xenophobia + Trailer (VIDEO)
Bruce Wayne: I knew the mob wouldn't go down without a fight. But this is different. They crossed the line.
Alfred Pennyworth: You crossed the line first, sir. You hammered them. And in their desperation they turned to a man they didn't fully understand. Some men aren't looking for anything logical. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.
Scary Quote of the Day
Every one-cent increase in gasoline prices means Americans pay $1.42 billion more a year for gas, according to Stephen P. Brown, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of
From New York Times.
Xeno or Homo? What does the 'phobia' part imply?
John Moore / Getty Image
I've just seen a man, Mustav Khan, on the verge of tears, who lost everything he has invested in his store. While there is undoubtedly an existing attitude targeting foreigners (pamphlets were handed out telling foreigners to leave or be driven out), personally I believe the focus on just 'xenophobia' is too narrow, and to do so is a great risk. Jordaan (tasked with delivering a 2010 World Cup) has announced that he doesn't expect the xenophobia to continue. What crystal ball are you looking into dude? Perhaps a look at the economic markets would be more rational.
But back to the title of this post. If you're homophobic, does that mean when you encounter a homosexual you can reasonably be expected to drive them out of your community, or at worst, beat them with concrete slabs and set them alight (as xenophobes have done recently)? Of course not. I feel the same license is being used with this word 'xenophobia', it's a name for something that is actually reinforcing the idea of it now that it has a name (and as such, a license). And when you use it with such liberty, more and more people begin to see themselves either as belonging to some group, or not belonging to one. Because conceivably, blacks can accuse every white person of being a 'foreigner', and all this because someone allowed the hysteria around xenophobia to be hijacked and essentially legitimised (even if based on an illegitimate psychology). That said, I am not sure if it isn't inevitable - people associating with people like themselves - when things fall apart.
While I am on the subject, I have a question for everyone out there (even me). If you go into a gym (or prison), and you you find yourself surrounded by an aroused population the same sex as you are (in plain language, you're going for a shower in a gym, and all the men around you are aroused..er, and you're also a man), wouldn't that make the average person uncomfortable? Now, since my boss or employers might be reading this, and this would be a gem post to haul me over the coals over, I'm not going to go into too much detail on this topic, except to say, I think mild homophobia (discomfort, not hatred) is not uncommon, say in a gym situation where nudity comes with the territory, and let's face it, gays love gym locker rooms.
I sometimes feel fearful and uncomfortable in gym, for example when getting into the jacuzzi with another naked dude you've never met. When you're not doing that every day, when you do it it's kind've weird, but you know, it shouldn't be. But then, as I say, there is a preponderance of gay lads in the gym (certainly the gyms I go to), and so my perception is that it's not as though your average oke is unlikely to be gay. The other end of that spectrum of 'uncomfortable' feeling is discrimination and hatred, but the entire spectrum belongs to the term 'phobia'. Doesn't it?
Understanding 'PHOBIA'
Why are there phobias against homosexuals, and are they rational? Are they inherited through traditional (religious) beliefs, or is being a homosexual in point of fact, unhealthy,and sensible to...want to exercise moral control over (as Christians do)? Apologies for being so graphic: any person who masturbates has essentially had a same-sex (homosexual) experience. If you're a woman, and you've masturbated, then you've experienced stimulation by a woman (even if its you, in the absence of male gadgety - well, one assumes), and if you're a man, then the same applies (the hand replaces the vagina, not a great substitute, but sometimes you have to make do). Based on the above analogy, homophobia is somewhat misplaced. I think. I'm not sure. I'm just offering ideas into the ether.
Could you be gay if you had to?
To take the argument further, how come prison populations give themselves over so easily to homosexual living? This demonstrates - doesn't it - how easily our constructs can be altered in the name of necessity and in order to cope with extreme frustration. And the question is, whatever we think of homophobia (maybe we are or we aren't), what would we do in a same-sex prison, serving a life sentence?
In my own experience, at least where it extends to homosexuals, I believe there are 5 types:
1) Au Natural - the born and bred homosexual (these homosexuals are aware of their sexual orientation from the start, and I can hear the Christians howling in protest already)
2) The Rebel - the parents can have a strong affect in modelling the child's sexuality. For example an overbearing and aggressive mother can model a wimpish, cowardly son, but so can a father. The rebel might be a genuine homosexual, but might also be confusing the sexual desire with a simpler and more basic desire for 'acceptance' from a sector in a sexual category (perhaps seeking a particular parents permutated approval)
3) The Mixer Upper - this is where someone has so much sex (or so little) the boundary between the natural response becomes muddied, and somewhat 'unnatural'. As I say, these apparently 'bisexual types' may have either experienced an enormous amount of partners and so lost their appetite in a certain direction, or remained virgins so late in life that they become vulnerable to preying homosexuals.
4) The Liberated - these are intellectuals often, or hippies, who see sex as an expression of connectedness
5) It's Just A Job - where necessity is the mother of perversion
In all cases though, I'm pretty sure that one sex is always preferred over the other, for whatever reason. We may feel the same way about races, even if we'd like to believe otherwise. To the extent that we have a 'phobia' I believe we really need to get closer to understanding those we are obviously afraid to understand any better than we do. We may be influenced by these 'other' people, sure, but by cathecting with others fear may well be replaced by friendship, and discomfort fizzle into a warmer sense that begins to reflect a truer diversity running through more genuinely integrated communities.
It starts, see, with a mindset that is willing to try to learn more about others, and by implication, ourselves.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
H5N1 outbreaks in Korea, Japan, Bangladesh
These stories were posted today: Bangladesh reports first human case of H5N1 bird flu, and Korea and Japanese outbreaks believed to be linked.
This story was posted May 5: Five suspected H5N1 human cases reported in Seoul and in April:
Seoul hospitals on alert for bird flu
S. Korea confirms 25th outbreak of H5N1 strain of bird flu
This story was posted May 5: Five suspected H5N1 human cases reported in Seoul and in April:
Seoul hospitals on alert for bird flu
S. Korea confirms 25th outbreak of H5N1 strain of bird flu
SA Bloggers Make BBC News on Xenophobia, but it's really looting, perhaps the start of a revolution, and a growing trend worldwide
What do South Africans think about what is happening in their country? One of the best ways to assess public sentiment on a large unfolding event is simply to look at what ordinary folk are saying on their blogs. This happened during the UFS racist videos, and now with the world's eyes on SA's Xenophobia, people want to know what is going on in ordinary South African's hearts and minds.
While a reporter can go to the trouble to visit the country with a camera and document what is happening, blogs are already there, embedded, reporting for free - free to air. It's already written, with opinions, concerns and insights freely offered, sometimes even accompanied by photos (and if you're lucky, video), and best of all, it's searchable. What more could you want?
BBC article: SA bloggers want end to violence
Well, having looked at the article it comes across touchy feely. Because the correct assessment (and even the news media fail to see this) is that the cause of the xenophobia/violence is the sudden onset of worsening prospects for the poor. Xenophobia itself is just a symptom of the underlying cause - the increasing fury and frustrations of the poor, which is clearly linked to South Africa's worsening economic prospects. And the implications are obvious and dire: with fuel prices increasing the xenophobia/violence will increase in lock-step with these pressures, meaning, it is going to spread. And it is spreading. Blaming is going to become the new hobby for hordes of people, but really, the high energy prices are a fact of life, and casting blame is really beside the point. It's reality.
This article, by Chris Moerdyk, is excellent: South Africa: Communications Chaos Over Xenophobia Crisis although Moerdyk also seems convinced that the cause is racist xenophobia, with no underlying driving force: The worst was a provincial MEC for safety and security, whose name I cannot remember but who wore a garish, shiny suit and pork-pie hat and calmly stood in the chaos and bodies with a smile on his face, claiming that there was nothing xenophobic about all the bloodshed. Obviously there is xenophobia involved, but as I say, it's merely an instrument to activate the poor and get them out there looting. We've already seen South Africans become targets, and unfortunately, that may well continue. What is the word for have-nots attacking haves? Looting? Revolution? Think that's far fetched?
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres said the violence reflected growing global tensions.
While a reporter can go to the trouble to visit the country with a camera and document what is happening, blogs are already there, embedded, reporting for free - free to air. It's already written, with opinions, concerns and insights freely offered, sometimes even accompanied by photos (and if you're lucky, video), and best of all, it's searchable. What more could you want?
BBC article: SA bloggers want end to violence
Well, having looked at the article it comes across touchy feely. Because the correct assessment (and even the news media fail to see this) is that the cause of the xenophobia/violence is the sudden onset of worsening prospects for the poor. Xenophobia itself is just a symptom of the underlying cause - the increasing fury and frustrations of the poor, which is clearly linked to South Africa's worsening economic prospects. And the implications are obvious and dire: with fuel prices increasing the xenophobia/violence will increase in lock-step with these pressures, meaning, it is going to spread. And it is spreading. Blaming is going to become the new hobby for hordes of people, but really, the high energy prices are a fact of life, and casting blame is really beside the point. It's reality.
This article, by Chris Moerdyk, is excellent: South Africa: Communications Chaos Over Xenophobia Crisis although Moerdyk also seems convinced that the cause is racist xenophobia, with no underlying driving force: The worst was a provincial MEC for safety and security, whose name I cannot remember but who wore a garish, shiny suit and pork-pie hat and calmly stood in the chaos and bodies with a smile on his face, claiming that there was nothing xenophobic about all the bloodshed. Obviously there is xenophobia involved, but as I say, it's merely an instrument to activate the poor and get them out there looting. We've already seen South Africans become targets, and unfortunately, that may well continue. What is the word for have-nots attacking haves? Looting? Revolution? Think that's far fetched?
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres said the violence reflected growing global tensions.
"The underlying factor is basically poverty," he said. "We are witnessing an increase in the number and intensity of crisis that generate displacement around the world. We are very worried."
More News Analysis: What is behind xenophobia in S. Africa
Work for a Big Company? Odds Are Good Your Boss is Reading Your E-Mail: Study
Worried your boss is reading your email at work? Your worst fears may be real. Of 301 large U.S. companies surveyed 41 percent say they hire staff to read and analyze outgoing mail. The numbers come from Proofpoint's annual Outbound Email and Data Loss Prevention survey which conducted the study this past March of U.S. companies with 20,000 plus employees.
Among the businesses surveyed 44 percent said they investigated a suspected e-mail leak of company secrets, 26 percent said they fired people for violating e-mail policies. So much for privacy.
Web 2.0 Privacy Worries
Email is not the only concern among businesses either, according to Proofpoint. Web 2.0 modes of communication such as blogs, message boards, media sharing sites and mobile devices have the boardroom suits quaking in their designer boots too.
According to Proofpoint, 27 percent of businesses have expressed great concern over data loss via mobile device. One in five have expressed concern over data loss by way of employee use of blogs or message boards. And another 12 percent of firms have looked into the confidential information leaks on media sharing sites. Lastly 14 percent of businesses surveyed said they have suffered from electronic data theft or been adversely impacted by other exposure of company information in some way.
E-Snooping = On the Job Stress
It is not surprising in this cyber-connected world we live in that companies are worried about leaks, and the impact on businesses is real enough. However, the idea that your job could be on the line every time you send an e-mail or make a blog post is a little unsettling to say the least.
If you want to see the complete report visit Powerpoint's Web site (registration required), and for the lighter side of e-mail gaffes check out the comments section on this Freakonomics blog post.
CREDIT - PC World contributor Ian Paul
NVDL: The good news is that as blogs become more powerful, and bloggers become more savvy, they can also - using clever software - track, and keep tabs on who is snooping for what, and where it's coming from. Furthermore, while companies have some control over employees with blogs, once they fire these employees (for whatever reason) they run the risk of drawing a shitstorm towards the very sensitive information they've endeavoured to protect, and this can sometimes turn the blogger into a celebrity, and certainly provide a publicity boost for the blog.
An example of counterintuitive corporate muscling/bullying, is when McDonald's sued Helen Steel and David Morris, who were part of a group who were distributing pamphlets in London indicating that McDonald's wasn't healthy. McD took them to court, and lost the PR battle (big company bullying two helpless, good hearted, not well off people). It became the longest running court case in British history, and all McD succeeded in doing was creating a massive PR campaign against themselves, and also providing a larger platform for the activists (TV coverage, acres of newspapers) than their pamphlets were ever going to get.
While Morris and Steel didn't work for McD, it ought nevertheless to serve as a cautionary tale for those companies who might be tempted to press their heels on someone they consider a sitting duck, or an irritating insect, only to find their foot caught in the vice of a crocodile's jaw.
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