China leads growth in sales, traffic and pollution, as hopes falter that it might pioneer a shift to hybrid and electric vehicles
Vehicles drive on Three Ring Road (left) and Jianwai Street (right) during the evening rush hour in central Beijing. Photograph: Jason Lee/Reuters
I am starting this post snared in traffic on Beijing's third ring road, breathing exhaust fumes and taking it on faith that the sun is up there somewhere behind the smog.
It is a fitting location to expunge a little car-related angst prompted by some stunning car industry statistics that have emerged in the past few days. If you are even slightly concerned about the environment, prepare to be depressed. If you are Jeremy Clarkson, start rubbing your hands with glee now.
First, the number of cars on the planet has just passed the billion mark. Second, almost half of the new growth is in China. Third, Toyota managed to sell only one Prius in China last year. That's right. The world's most commercially successful hybrid car has found only one buyer in the fastest growing market. SUV sales, by contrast, are surging.
No wonder we are choking. Despite all the promises of green growth and reduced emissions, traditional car sales are accelerating, while efforts to shift towards "greener" hybrid and electric vehicles are stuck in neutral, particularly in the place where it matters most.
According to the trade journal, Ward's, a record 35m new vehicles were sold worldwide last year. That is 95,500 extra cars being added to the global traffic jam every day.
Most of the new demand came from developing nations, particularly China. But the country's efforts to promote "green" cars has been lagging. This is not just affecting Toyota. It had been hoped that generous government subsidies and policy support would help domestic manufacturers like BYD to leapfrog better established overseas rivals by mass producing electric cars.
But BYD have scaled back their ambitions after failing to find a market due to cost and technical concerns. Reflecting the lack of progress, prime minster Wen Jiabao recently published an article in a Communist party journal calling for a rethink of China's "road map" towards alternative powertrain vehicles.
In a report earlier this week, IHS Automotive, a Shanghai-based consultancy, said the sales increase for such vehicles is far behind the government's timeframe. It noted too the poor performance of the Prius, which notched up a sole sale in a year when 13.8m new passenger cars were registered in China. Among them were 850,000 SUVs, a rise of 24%. Luxury car sales were also on the up and up, as I noted in an earlier article.
The big brands would like more of the same - and argue there is room for growth. Only one in 16 Chinese people own a car, which is less than half the global average. If the country were to match the three-in-four ownership levels of the US, that would mean an extra 900 million vehicles.
Given the frequent traffic and smog even at current levels, I cannot imagine that ever happening. Even if all the new cars were hybrid or electric, the congestion would be incredible. "Green growth" looks a distant prospect. China is more likely to simply slow down.
It is a fitting location to expunge a little car-related angst prompted by some stunning car industry statistics that have emerged in the past few days. If you are even slightly concerned about the environment, prepare to be depressed. If you are Jeremy Clarkson, start rubbing your hands with glee now.
First, the number of cars on the planet has just passed the billion mark. Second, almost half of the new growth is in China. Third, Toyota managed to sell only one Prius in China last year. That's right. The world's most commercially successful hybrid car has found only one buyer in the fastest growing market. SUV sales, by contrast, are surging.
No wonder we are choking. Despite all the promises of green growth and reduced emissions, traditional car sales are accelerating, while efforts to shift towards "greener" hybrid and electric vehicles are stuck in neutral, particularly in the place where it matters most.
According to the trade journal, Ward's, a record 35m new vehicles were sold worldwide last year. That is 95,500 extra cars being added to the global traffic jam every day.
Most of the new demand came from developing nations, particularly China. But the country's efforts to promote "green" cars has been lagging. This is not just affecting Toyota. It had been hoped that generous government subsidies and policy support would help domestic manufacturers like BYD to leapfrog better established overseas rivals by mass producing electric cars.
But BYD have scaled back their ambitions after failing to find a market due to cost and technical concerns. Reflecting the lack of progress, prime minster Wen Jiabao recently published an article in a Communist party journal calling for a rethink of China's "road map" towards alternative powertrain vehicles.
In a report earlier this week, IHS Automotive, a Shanghai-based consultancy, said the sales increase for such vehicles is far behind the government's timeframe. It noted too the poor performance of the Prius, which notched up a sole sale in a year when 13.8m new passenger cars were registered in China. Among them were 850,000 SUVs, a rise of 24%. Luxury car sales were also on the up and up, as I noted in an earlier article.
The big brands would like more of the same - and argue there is room for growth. Only one in 16 Chinese people own a car, which is less than half the global average. If the country were to match the three-in-four ownership levels of the US, that would mean an extra 900 million vehicles.
Given the frequent traffic and smog even at current levels, I cannot imagine that ever happening. Even if all the new cars were hybrid or electric, the congestion would be incredible. "Green growth" looks a distant prospect. China is more likely to simply slow down.
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