Gustav: 81 dead, latest trajectory (DETAILED IMAGE)

Looks like Gustav may hit New Orleans and then threaten Dallas.

Gustav may hit as Cat 4 (Katrina hit as Cat 3)

This storm is so powerful and growing more powerful every day that I'm not sure we've seen anything like it.-New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin

NVDL: It is the wee hours of the morning in the USA, and Gustav has justed cleared Cuba. It is now a Category 3 storm, but it has all day to power up again. The fact that it sustained Cat 4 throughout the night is in itself significant.

clipped from news.sky.com It is almost three years to the day since Hurricane Katrina swept through the birthplace of jazz, killing hundreds and exposing deep poverty and lack of preparation. Highways around New Orleans are jammed and hundreds of people having been lining up to board buses as authorities urge residents to get out before the storm gets any closer. Sky News weather presenter Lucy Verasamy said: "This hurricane won't just affect New Orleans - but that city still hasn't recovered from Katrina and the levees will never be able to take Gustav's storm surge of over 20ft. No way." After passing over Cuba, Gustav lost some power and dropped to Category 3 - but the fierce storm is now back over the warm Gulf waters where it will pick up strength again, possibly reaching a catastrophic Category 5. clipped from www.ibiseye.com clipped from news.sky.com Energy companies have shut down three-quarters of oil production in the Gulf and are prepared for the strongest storm in three years to hit an area that produces a quarter of US crude and 15% of its natural gas.

Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans - hundreds of thousands leave before official order

The evacuation of New Orleans becomes mandatory at 8 a.m. today along the west bank of the Mississippi River and at noon on the east bank. Nagin called Gustav the "mother of all storms" and told residents to "get out of town. This is not the one to play with."

"For everyone thinking they can ride this storm out, I have news for you: That will be one of the biggest mistakes you can make in your life."

Nagin said those choosing to remain in their homes should have an ax to chop through their roof when the floodwaters rise.- seattletimes.nwsource.com

NVDL: If one good thing has emerged from Katrina, it is that the communities affected have moved away from complacency and developed instead a rational and healthy respect for these systems. Unfortunately, it takes a firsthand experience to learn this lesson before it is applied. I hope people affected will also help the helpless and infirm, and the very young.

TheOilDrum: We hope those in the path of this behemoth will get out of the way, prepare, and do everything they can to preserve human life. Let's hope this is all a waste of time and that this is not the human tragedy that it looks to be.

clipped from seattletimes.nwsource.com NEW ORLEANS — Spooked by predictions that Hurricane Gustav could grow into a Category 5 monster, an estimated 1 million people fled the Gulf Coast Saturday, even before the official order came for New Orleans residents to get out of the way of a storm taking dead aim at Louisiana. Mayor Ray Nagin gave the mandatory order late Saturday, but all day residents took to buses, trains, planes and cars, clogging roads leading away from New Orleans, still reeling three years after Hurricane Katrina flooded 80 percent of the city and killed about 1,600 across the region.

Gustav: Latest satellite image

Gustav: storm surge graphics, latest stats, satellite images + advisory 26

The above image is Infra-red since visible light is minimal at night. As day breaks Gustav is likely to be energised even more, building to maximum possible strength towards noon Sunday.
Get advisories on your phone, go here.
Advisory:

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A NOAA C-MAN OBSERVATION SITE AT PULASKI SHOAL IN THE FLORIDA KEYS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...84.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

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Areas on Hurricane alert.

5 day forecast has Gustav at Cat 5 by Sunday, weakening slightly just before landfall on Monday and Tuesday.

Storm surge - areas affected.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA. THIS WATCH AND WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Below: Gustav ito water vapour

One million flee as Hurricane Gustav revs up

Gustav to create 5 metre storm surge

"You need to be getting your butts moving out of New Orleans now." - Nagin

clipped from www.ctv.ca Gustav is expected to become an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 storm, the most powerful hurricane possible, as it roars through Cuba and heads toward the U.S. Gulf coast. Category 5 storms have sustained winds of more than 249 kilometres per hour. Winds of that speed will create a storm surge of more than five metres, rip off most roofs and completely destroy mobile homes, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. At 11 p.m ET on Saturday, Gustav had maximum sustained winds of 220 kilometres per hour with higher gusts. The centre of the storm was located 145 km west of Havana, Cuba. The National Hurricane Centre says Gustav "could reach Category five intensity" in the next 24 hours and is "extremely dangerous." Cuba is rushing to evacuate 240,000 people from the storm's path.

Gustav now virtually a Category 5 storm + ADVISORY + track

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS WESTERN CUBA ONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON tHE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

clipped from news.yahoo.com The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Gustav had sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph) — with higher gusts — as the heart of the storm began hitting Cuba's outlying island province of Isla de Juventud, where officials cut power to many areas. A Category 5 hurricane has winds above 155 mph (249 kph). "The rain is not so intense, but there is a lot, a lot of wind," said Isabel Alarcon from Nueva Gerona, the largest city on the island of 87,000 people. "The officials, they have told us the wind will be bad first but then the rain could cause flooding into the night." As it spun over open waters, Hanna had sustained winds near 50 mph (85 kph) late Saturday afternoon and the hurricane center warned that it could kick up dangerous rip currents along parts of the southeastern U.S. coast.

Where am I going... (PHOTOGRAPHY)

Hurricane Gustav Now A Major Storm

Gustav is expected to be at least a Category 3 and possibly a Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Gulf Coast.

clipped from news.nationalgeographic.com Declared a Category 4 storm Saturday afternoon, Hurricane Gustav continues to strengthen and will soon reach Category 5 status—the highest—according to U.S. officials. Gustav is poised to deliver a punishing blow to western Cuba late Saturday before entering the Gulf of Mexico and passing over a deep, warm current infamous for supercharging storms before targeting the U.S. Gulf Coast (Gulf Coast map). The hurricane's Category 4 designation came after a reconnaissance flight into the storm reported to the National Hurricane Center in Miami that winds around Gustav's eye had reached about 145 miles (233 kilometers) an hour. At a teleconference Saturday, National Hurricane Center director Bill Read said he is going to raise Gustav to Category 5, though he has not yet done so, according to the Associated Press. Category 4 storms have winds of 131 to 155 miles (211 to 249 kilometers) an hour (hurricane facts, photos, videos, more).

Series of Fronts Pummel South Africa (satellite images)

TriNations: Boks restore some pride with eight-try Wallaby victory

Foxsports: AUSTRALIA crashed to a record defeat against South Africa as Springbok winger Jongi Nokwei scored four tries in the 53-8 Tri-Nations success.

Australia looked a shadow of the side that defeated the Springboks so convincingly in Durban last weekend and were never in the match once South Africa had scored three tries in the opening 25 minutes.

Amazingly, though, they could still win the Tri-Nations if they beat New Zealand in Brisbane in two weeks, although, on this performance, it looks highly unlikely.

South Africa ran in eight tries, four in each half, as the world champions came to life at the end of an arduous Tri-Nations campaign.

NVDL: Was a great game to watch. Pity Nokwe got injured, and pity the Boks could only come up with this level of carnage at the end of their campaign. But a superb performance, and an indication that this team are the world champs after all.

clipped from www.trinationsweb.com South Africa scored eight tries in their 53-8 win over Australia in a Tri-Nations match on Saturday. The world champions turned around three successive defeats in the competition to end on a high at the ground where they won the World Cup for the first time in 1995. Australia, who are still in with a chance of winning this year's Tri-Nations title as they have a game to play against New Zealand on September 13 in Brisbane, have not won at the old Ellis Park since 1963. Left winger Jongi Nokwe was just one of a number of stars in the Bok side. He scored four tries in just his third match for the Boks. The hosts ran in four splendid tries, three by winger Nokwe and one by towering lock Andries Bekker.

Where to track Gustav and Hannah?

Track both storms here.

USA taking Gustav seriously

"We're hopeful that the storm will miss us, but we've got to prepare as if it's coming our way." - Mayor Ray Nagin

NVDL: That's a sensible approach.

clipped from www.iht.com The most dire warnings from forecasters Friday were reserved for Cuba, which could face a "major hurricane" on Saturday. But New Orleans found itself in an astonishing position: On the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the city was preparing for Gustav, which could grow into the first major hurricane to hit the city since the national disaster. If Gustav continues to gain strength and continue on as forecasts suggest, it would strike New Orleans at the same strength as Katrina, category 3. "This is not a time to panic," Governor Barbour said, according to The Associated Press, "but it is a time to get prepared."

Gustav - latest updates, projections, satellite images

Latest computer model above.

From tomorrow until landfall, Gustav is projected to be a lethal Category 5 monster, meaning the deadliest storm on the scale, with winds around 250km/h.

Note how well the 'eye' has formed. This is always a sign that a Hurricane packs very deadly winds.

Gutav - from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 Hurricane in 24 hours; millions flee

MSNBC:Even forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami were surprised at how quickly Gustav gained strength as it charged over Cuba.

Gustav had already killed more than 80 people in the Caribbean, and if current forecasts hold up, it would make landfall early Tuesday morning along Louisiana's central coast, sparing New Orleans a direct hit.

But forecasters warned it was still too soon to say exactly where the storm will hit, and residents weren't taking any chances judging by the bumper-to-bumper traffic pouring from the city. Gas stations along interstate highways were running out of fuel, and phone circuits were jammed.

NVDL: Jeepers, another nightmare begins.

clipped from www.msnbc.msn.com NEW ORLEANS - Around a million people took to Gulf Coast highways Saturday, boarding up homes and businesses and fleeing dangerous Hurricane Gustav by bus and automobile as the season's most powerful Atlantic storm took aim at Louisiana. At 5 p.m. ET, a hurricane watch was issued along the coast between High Island, Texas, and the Alabama-Florida border — an area that includes New Orleans. A watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Even forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami were surprised at how quickly Gustav gained strength as it charged over Cuba. It went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 in about 24 hours, and was likely to become a Category 5 — with sustained winds of 160 mph or more — by Sunday.

Hurricane Gustav likely to be deadly as it heads down throat of 'Loop Current'

It happened in 2005. "Katrina went over the Loop Current and intensified rapidly," said Mark DeMaria, a Colorado-based expert on hurricane strength with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Then less than a month later a weak tropical storm named Rita followed Katrina into the Loop Current. Thirty hours later it was a Category 5 monster.

Both Katrina and Rita later weakened — which often happens — to Category 3 storms by landfall.

In the last several years, meteorologists have focused more attention on the Loop Current, which is only a couple of hundred miles long and not even 100 miles wide. The evidence linking it to the worst storms is beyond circumstantial, Shay said.

clipped from www.msnbc.msn.com WASHINGTON - The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that's easy to miss. It's called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it, reminiscent of Katrina. Gustav is likely to reach this current late Saturday, experts say. What happens next will be crucial, maybe deadly. The meandering Loop Current, located in the southeastern gulf, provides loads of hurricane fuel. It was a key stopover for nearly all the Gulf Coast killers of the past, including Katrina and Camille, said Florida International University professor Hugh Willoughby, former director of the government's hurricane research division.

Gustav moving at 15mph; straight path will be deadly - landfall likely west of New Orleans

SeaBlogger: General rule for Gustav in the Gulf: the quicker it moves, the more severe it will be at landfall. If it slows, shear will weaken it more, and dry air will entrain off the land. Watch the speed and course: slowing and wavering will be good signs. But if it settles on a straight path after Cuba and moves steadily, someone will get pretty hard hit at the end of it.

The majority of computer models predict a landfall in Louisiana, west of New Orleans.

Gustav Category 4, soon to be 5

The size of this storm is scary. It fills almost the entire Gulf area with swirling swathes of cloud. Unbelievable.

clipped from www.iht.com WASHINGTON: The government's disaster relief chief says Hurricane Gustav is growing into a monster Category 5 storm. The storm that hit Cuba Saturday could reach landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Monday afternoon. Federal Emergency Management Agency chief David Paulison told reporters several times at a briefing Saturday that the storm was strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane. Gustav was a highly dangerous Category 4 storm Saturday afternoon. A Category 5 storm has winds greater than 155 mph (250 kph). After Paulison's briefing, hurricane forecasters said the storm still was classified as Category 4 although it was intensifying rapidly. They are predicting it will grow into a Category 5 hurricane by early Sunday.

Gustav Now Category 4, soon to be Category 5 (satellite image)

In this picture are the sum of our worst fears being realised. A Category 5 monster in the making, tearing through 20% of the USA's oil production capacity. This is bad news for everyone.

ALERT:Cut off low means South Africa's sea conditions very dangerous this weekend

NVDL: If you had plans to go fishing, surfing or diving this weekend, better cancel them.

Dispatch: Pretoria-based meteorologist Ezekiel Sebego predicted that there would be very rough seas with swells of eight metres and more.

He said an intense cold front accompanied by a well-developed upper trough is also expected. “This is normal at this time of the year as August is usually the windy month and we expect very rough seas with swells,” said Sebego.

However, he said it was not usual for destructive waves to coincide with spring high tides.

clipped from www.dispatch.co.za The Weather Service warned that storm-strength winds exceeding 80km/h are expected along the Western Cape Coast, south of Cape Point, spreading to East London on Sunday. This would cause massive swells along the Western Cape coast, spreading to Durban by Sunday evening. National Sea Rescue Institute (NSRI) spokesperson Craig Lambinon advised boaters not to launch to sea unless it was absolutely necessary. He also warned that there were more than 600 logs that were lost off a ship in Cape Town in August. Some were recovered, but those that weren’t may pose an increased risk. He said the weather conditions that the country would experience were known as a “cut-off low system”. According to senior researcher Marius Rossouw at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), ever since they started doing wave recordings in 1992, the highest wave height they recorded in East London was 9.3m in June 1997.