Good Morning World

Whatever time it is, and wherever you are, a very good morning.

I think it's time that we start to establish the rules of the game and the game plan for the next few months. What follows are a few graphic announcements that will affect you wherever you live in the world. Don't read further if you suffer from Depression, nausea or a weak bladder.

1) In 3 - 6 months we will begin to see fuel shortages around the world. This is Phase 1 of a serious succession of ongoing breakdowns, that start at oil supply breakdown, and lead to supply line breakdowns right down the line. That means if you've ordered a book on Amazon, of are expecting to get the season's latest fashions in a few weeks, you might want to start preparing for disappointment. It also means food - fruits, canned stuff that is imported - might not make it to the shelves for a while. Those products that are absent...get used to them not being there.

2) South Africans will never see the promised Pebble Bed nuclear reactors come online. The system is too stressed and it's happened too late. The lights will flicker this winter, and by the end of the year, systems will go down for longer periods. We will also not see the Soccer World Cup. That much ought to be obvious by now, but it will be a foregone conclusion by Christmas this year.
Part of the reason we won't be able to keep the lights on is that coal is going to be just as big a problem as oil, meaning fewer households will be up and running to afford to pay for expensive electricity. Unfortunately, those homes glowing in the dark will make brilliant targets for masses of bitter and bitterly cold or otherwise disenfranchised people who suddenly have had to go without. It is not a long road from blaming foreign nationals, to blaming (and butchering) the rich.
Also, by 2010 airlines will not be in business to even get the soccer crowds here. Blame our geography at the ass end of Africa, but it's not going to happen.
Instead, Xenophobia is going to spread as poverty spreads. We'll call it by different names, but the results will be the same. The poor venting their frustrations.

Quiet, empty places like Namibia or defensible farmsteads might be a good idea to ride out the storm. Australia and Canada are likely to be place millions will converge upon.
A quick word of advice. When you see waves of Xenophobia/violence mounting, pay attention. You might have to get out at very short notice, and if you leave too late, you will not find a highway without obstructions and survival will quickly become very difficult and problematic. Use Google Alerts early on to keep up to date on up to the minute news regarding 'violence mobs South Africa'. It may also be good to get yourself a weapon. I don't advocate using weapons, but we're heading for a place that is completely divorced from what we imagine to be 'Normal'.

2) Say goodbye - forever - to air travel. It's started already, and it may take another 6-12 months for the airlines to figure this out. Essentially, once oil topped $120, airlines lost their licenses to operate profitably. If you find you're very frustrated by that, get someone to kickstart the rusting train wrecks in a nearby yard. By the way, good luck with that.

3) Within the next year (maybe 24 months), the stock markets - and that essentially means the financial system - will crash. Banks are starting to go. If you have money in bank stocks, get it out. Also, if you've been saving up for some sort of big world trip, some sort of amazing holiday bor honeymoon, I suggest you take it now. (Yes, today, and don't spend more than a few weeks there or you won't be able to make it back). Right now oil is trading at $135, and R/$ exceeds R8.

4) The implications of 3) are essentially that subsequent to the crash, you will only be able to hold onto your job for a few days, maybe a few weeks. And that means within a year, 2 at the most, most of you reading this, will no longer be working and you will never again see the prospects for doing the sort of work you're doing now again in your lifetime. Some might be pretty happy about this.

5) The countdown to one of the worst and most destructive wars has begun. It will probably involve Iran as America begins to realise the end of their world as they know it. There will be a lot of anger and blame as suburbia implodes in America, and people will not worry so much about the ethics of war this time. For the first time though, war will also cross over the Atlantic and onto America soil, as both China and Russia - becoming aware of how serious the situation is - try to push America back into their backyard.

6) There will be other side-effects as the global economy convulses on the vomit of Capitalism. Crime. Disease. Municipal systems not working (dirty water). H5N1 (or H7N1) will use human beings to host their foray across the world. Unfortunately, the background to all this will be some pretty awful weather that will get progressively worse.

7) Expect those around you, and you, and a lot of these systems around us - malls, fast food joints, skyscrapers - expect all of this to be trimmed down to size as the world goes on a very strict diet.

Learn to adapt. And have faith. We can survive anthing if we care enough about ourselves and others. And once we accept what is happening, and learn how to live, life will become a little easier again. But it will take a while.