Take A Good Long Look

Can you feel it? Do you get a sense that while everything has the semblance of 'normal' things are in actuality far from?

Nevertheless people around us will go to work today just like they did on every other day, pretending that all is well in the world. We ought to remember days like these, when we had inklings, but went along our way anyway. We ought to remember too that the Mainstream Media, who should be one step ahead (the first to know)...they could have provided fair warning.

We can already see signs of the fabric of society tearing. In South America (Argentina, Venezuela) and in Europe (France, Germany and Belgium), in the form of anti-political riots, and in China and Indonesia we may be about to see pestilence on a large scale. In the Middle East, the War is about to spill over into Syria and Iran. And in Australia, 17 terrorists were foiled in their attempts to launch a chemical attack on Sydney. There's the new of the world today, in one paragraph. Now combine these forces with an oil shock and then use your imagination.

Warm weather in the biggest heating oil market is still keeping the market asleep. You may remember predictions months ago of oil prices soaring to levels of $70, $90 by Thanksgiving (about 3 weeks away), $100 by Christmas (about 7 weeks away). That expectation remains.

Take a good long look at the figures in the report below, because we're going to miss them. We're unlikely to see 50-something oil again. 50-something though, isn't really accurate anyway. Oil is really at $60.

Now is a good time to invest in oil stocks (in South Africa invest in SASOL). Once the winter has set in it will be too late. I plan to do that when I get home.
Getting around and staying warm is about to get a whole lot more expensive.

NYMEX oil ends down more than $1 on warm weather
Monday 7 November 2005, 2:48pm EST

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended down more than a dollar Monday in the face of unseasonably warm weather in the U.S. Northeast, the world's biggest heating oil market.

December crude oil last traded at $59.50 a barrel, down $1.08 but well above its session low of $58.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That nadir was the cheapest since $58.50 on July 27.

NYMEX December heating oil last traded 0.87 cent lower at $1.7875 a gallon, recouping much of its earlier losses after bottoming at $1.7465 which marked the lowest since Aug. 8's $1.733.

NYMEX December gasoline ended down 4.80 cents at $1.56 per gallon after sliding to a session low of $1.535 which held above last week's spot-chart low of $1.505.

In London, December Brent crude last traded down $1.19 at $58.06 a barrel after dropping to the day's low of $57.18.

"The story today is all about warm weather, which is giving refineries time to play catch-up with (heating oil) production while it's not cold yet," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

Temperatures in the Northeast are expected to remain above normal through Friday, according to private forecaster Meteorlogix.

U.S. demand for heating oil is expected to be about 42 percent below normal this week as temperatures in the U.S. Northeast remain mild, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.

Total U.S. natural gas heating demand will be about 48.4 percent below normal during the week ending Nov. 12, while electric-heat demand will be about 55.2 percent below normal, according to the weekly forecast.

The balmy start to the heating season fueled perceptions of sagging demand, which has been running 1.8 percent below a year ago, according to government data.

Venezuela tanker collision causes oil spill

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Two tankers collided near Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo shipping lane, and one of the vessels was leaking oil, officials said Monday.

Danish shipping company A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S said in a statement that its ship, Maersk Holyhead, was leaking from a bunker tank containing about 550 cubic meters (19,420 cubic feet) of fuel oil after colliding with Liberian vessel Pequot about 55 miles off the channel late Sunday.

Around a third of Venezuela's oil production comes from Lake Maracaibo.

Maracaibo Port Capt. Oscar Ramirez said the incident has not caused shipping delays, though the lane was shut for a few hours Sunday evening to remove the tankers. The closure did not coincide with schedule tanker arrivals or departures and the crew was reported to be safe.

Officials were investigating the cause of the accident.

The collision caused a hole in the Danish ship's starboard side above and below the waterline. It was carrying about 12,345 tons of propane, the statement said.

The other tanker was transporting coal, Ramirez said