Alert

Preamble
One of the themes of this blog is the theme of 'Awakening'. Serious things are happening in the world, and do you know about them; do you even care? What is important to you?

Some events, like riots in Paris and riots in Argentina may seem to be irrelevant to you. It's actually all relevant, because the world is a complex system, and we're part of that system. We're effected by the economics of it, the climate, the prevailing philosophies about lifestyle, government, how we engage other countries etc.

One of the philosophies of our time, is that the average person is seen as a 'consumer'. Someone who consumes (rather than produces something meaningful). You and I are locusts. That's our job.
We're actually enlightened beings, or ought to be. If we were awake we would not be sleepwalking into a series of real horrors, a nightmare we will unfortunately find whether we're asleep or finally awakened to the reality of our lives. I'm sorry that it doesn't sound better. But you can't spin it any other way.

Example
I have been following H5N1 for months, and I can tell you (based on news reports)it's not only spreading, but accelerating. I would not be suprised if this winter, the virus finds a way through to an efficient re-combination (with a human flu), which would launch the pandemic at the end of 2005, or early next year, and this process would last for several months.

I personally was worried about this much earlier on, predicting that the human flu season (when it gets cold in the Northern Hemisphere) would make animals and people both more vulnerable to disease. That, in addition to the movements of birds (also based on seasonal weather changes) seems to be the engine behind the spread of these infections, and will continue to be for some time.

What we know so far is H5N1 was in Korea in 2003. It's now the end of 2005, and it has been picked up from Japan to Britain, and almost everywhere in between. Over the next few weeks that spread will be north to south, instead of east to west.
It's hard to say where the worst outbreaks are likely. I would guess that China faces a serious risk to its population, as does India and Russia.
Once it reaches Africa it will be able through large areas without detection, simply because Africa has less infrastrucutre than any other continent, and its people are the most vulnerable disease because they are already malnourished, suffering from AIDS and impoverished.

Richard Branson has ordered 10 000 vaccines, and Bush is spending $7 billion to protect Americans. These are not the kind of actions from individuals who expect Avian Flu to be a long or even medium term event. I believe that sensible people are seeing the signs, and the signs indicate the Pandemic is already here. It's starting. I am not trying to frighten you, by telling you this. The last thing we need is a worldwide panic. But people out to begin to mkae preparations now, and get where they ought to go as soon as they can make those arrangements. Airlines will be the first system to shutdown, so we need to be aware of that.

Actually ponder this for a moment. Think about it as a very real likelihood in the coming days and weeks. Then make a decision. Remember, not making a decision, is also a decision. It's a decision, your personal decision, to wait and see.
If that's what you decide to do, I hope you're right. And good luck. My decision is not to wait and see.


Indonesia: Two new human bird flu cases
Number of human deaths in country climbs to five

Saturday, November 5, 2005; Posted: 1:26 a.m. EST (06:26 GMT)

JAKARTA, Indonesia (CNN) -- A woman who died last month in Indonesia was suffering from the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza, health officials said Saturday, and an 8-year-old relative has tested positive for the disease.

Indonesian officials received confirmation of the positive test results from the World Health Organization lab in Hong Kong, said Health ministry official Hariadi Wibisono.

The woman died October 28, and samples were sent for testing afterward, Wibisono said.

Children who had come in contact with the woman were taken to a hospital with flu-like symptoms, and the child has tested positive for the strain, but is in stable condition, Wibisono said.

The latest reports bring the number of human bird flu cases in Indonesia to nine since July. Five of those have been fatal.

The disease has spread rapidly among birds, first in Southeast Asia and more recently in Europe.

Japanese health officials said Friday signs of bird flu were found among a flock of 300,000 chickens, but tests had not yet determined whether the strain is the deadly H5N1.

A day earlier, China reported 8,940 chickens in the country's northeast died of the fatal strain, prompting authorities to destroy another 369,900 birds. It marked the country's fourth H5N1 outbreak in just three weeks. (Full story)

The H5N1 strain has infected more than 120 people and has proven fatal in half those cases.

Earlier this week, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan called on the international community to make immediate preparations for a possible pandemic of bird flu.

While it is not yet clear if the H5N1 strain will ever gain the ability to infect large numbers of people, Annan said world leaders cannot ignore the threat it poses. (Full story)

On Friday, Vietnam also confirmed more bird flu outbreaks among poultry in three villages, according to The Associated Press.

Earlier, the World Bank highlighted the potentially huge human and economic costs from any bird flu pandemic, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said such an outbreak could push the world economy into recession, Reuters reported.

The ADB said a year-long shock from bird flu in humans would cost Asian economies as much as $283 billion and would reduce the region's gross domestic product by 6.5 percentage points, hitting Hong Kong and Singapore the most.

CNN's Kathy Quiano contributed to this report.