Trevor - Invest in Railways

The roads are deteriorating but you know what? If I was Trevor I would invest the bare minimum in road and highway upkeep. They don't have a future anyway. I would instead make massive investments into railways. Imagine making the trip from JHB to Cape Town on a TGV type train travelling 300km/h. Theoretically one could make the trip in 4 hours.

Right now driving to Bloem and back (from Johannesburg) already costs around R1000. R300 petrol one way, R100 toll gates, plus chowing on the the way. X2. One person driving in a car - anywhere - is a phenomenal waste of energy. We just can't afford to be burning up non-renewables as though they were renewable. It's crazy. Next month petrol will go up about 40 cents (maybe more...overnight oil touched on $100 again -get used to it!).

I'd also invest in streetcars; that is above ground, electric trains (think San Francisco (and Cape Town once upon a time). Munich also has them, as do a number of other European metropoles. London should try to resuscitate what remains of their tram systems.

Train travel is actually a beautiful and relaxing experience. It's sophisticated travel; just ask the French and the Japanese. The good news is, Transnet is doing a lot to restructure itself. I know this because I see a lot of recruitment ads, and Ramos had stated this is the intention. [Standing ovation].

Crash? JSE down to 25714.630

It's not yet noon and the JSE is down 3.52% on low levels. R/$ rate is 7.16 which impacts on how affordable oil is for us. There is a confluence of events at work domestically, including the perception overseas of South Africa's energy problems (Manuel has been one voice of sanity though, saying: let's call it what it is - it's not load shedding but rolling blackouts).

The subprime woes overseas and the perception that the US is now on track for a recession - something that I have suggested on the cards for a few years now - is finally happening.

Oil prices are receding as demand recedes, but obviously demand remains fairly inelastic. Expect more bad news, and then for it to go from bad to worse. This is simply Peak Oil theory at work, not pessimism. It's reality, and unfortunately we will begin to realise that we cannot grow forever, we never could.

JSE sharply lower on global fears

ALERT: Manuel forecasts lower growth

From Sowetan Online:
Finance Minister Trevor Manuel today forecast lower growth on the back of global uncertainty, announcing he will hoard some surplus revenues to absorb future shocks.

Presenting his medium-term budget to parliament, Manuel said instability on the major markets, dollar depreciation, volatile commodity prices and rising oil and food inflation are hurting South Africa’s growth projections.

“One of the first issues that arises is .. a very moderate revision downwards by 0.1% of growth this year, a more significant downward revision by 0.7% for next year and then it starts picking up again but is still down on our February forecast for the third year,” said Manuel.

In his main budget in February, Manuel had predicted economic growth of just over 5% per year up to 2009, which he now put at 4.9%, 4.5% and 4.8% for each of the three years.
For the rest of this Sowetan Online article, go here.

NVDL: Lower growth = fewer jobs = more poor/disgruntled/disenfranchised/disempowered people = more crime.