It's not yet noon and the JSE is down 3.52% on low levels. R/$ rate is 7.16 which impacts on how affordable oil is for us. There is a confluence of events at work domestically, including the perception overseas of South Africa's energy problems (Manuel has been one voice of sanity though, saying: let's call it what it is - it's not load shedding but rolling blackouts).
The subprime woes overseas and the perception that the US is now on track for a recession - something that I have suggested on the cards for a few years now - is finally happening.
Oil prices are receding as demand recedes, but obviously demand remains fairly inelastic. Expect more bad news, and then for it to go from bad to worse. This is simply Peak Oil theory at work, not pessimism. It's reality, and unfortunately we will begin to realise that we cannot grow forever, we never could.
JSE sharply lower on global fears
Showing posts with label crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crash. Show all posts
Monday, January 21, 2008
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
The Walls Move In
Gold is at a 28 year high. Oil prices are in constant flux; nudging all time records. The JSE has blasted through the 30 000 level, food prices are on the march - some of them doubling since last year. Car sales in South Africa have shrunk year on year for the sixth consecutive month. Banks are issuing alerts. Did you ever stop to think: could something be awry*?
Remember the clamour of voices a long time ago about oil prices? Now we're seeing oil remain comfortably in the $70 range. It's a matter of time before that mad dog goes yelping beyond $100. Some of us thought it would be last year or this year. Every month this doesn't happen, means an even sharper crash. People who say this sort of thing are typically called 'doomsayers'.
Unfortunately, the message has been lost in noise and hysteria. The message (once again) is this: We are at a Peak, a global peak, the likes of which we will never see again. Never before and never again will so many people - so many individuals - enjoy so much lavish and luxurious wealth and power as they are now. This exceptional period of surplus and abundance has been unleashed courtesy of the legacy of fossil fuels. These fuels take millions of years of sunlight bathed forests to shore up. We've pissed half of it into the atmosphere in less than 100 years.
Until now, this fantastic We should say cheap and abundant, because from here on out, with the human population of this planet having absorbed all the capacity that such artificial energy abundance created - we are now moving towards scarcity.
The implications of this are scary. Try not to panic. I spoke recently to a wealthy private game farm owner, an intelligent doctor. He was saying that ecosystems that are out of balance don't correct themselves neatly and seamlessly. They do so in chronic and destabilising crashes. So if a certain species breaches capacity, it doesn't just slowly reduce itself until it fits into a newer and better and more balanced efficiency. Instead, it crashes.
Logic indicates that the same fate awaits us. By us I mean you and all the human beings around you, and every human being you have ever met. I know it sounds dramatic. In fact, it's impossible to overdrammatize. In our lifetimes we are going to see Big Shit. We'll see the human population crash from over 6 billion, and if we're lucky, we'll have 1 billion left over. The doctor I spoke to reckoned on less - a few hundred million perhaps.
I'm sorry if that sounds pessimistic. It's really just a logical and realistic assessment. Meanwhile, the newspapers are starting to notice that something - they're not sure what - is awry. Meanwhile, while the stock exchanges celebrate and crash through new records, so too does worldwide weather, reducing crops to debris and dust. The walls move in on a world that thinks it can continue moving on towards happily ever after. I wish it was a happy ending folks, but unfortunately, it isn't.
The major challenge in the future will be agriculture. Translation: the jobs of the future will be farming, as we attempt to feed ourselves. It's a grim and austere future that right now seems impossible. That is the extent of our common delusion.
Awry: Adj. 1. awry - turned or twisted toward one side; "a...youth with a gorgeous red necktie all awry"- G.K.Chesterton; "his wig was, as the British say, skew-whiff"
askew, cockeyed, skew-whiff, wonky, lopsided
crooked - having or marked by bends or angles; not straight or aligned; "crooked country roads"; "crooked teeth"
2. awry - not functioning properly; "something is amiss"; "has gone completely haywire"; "something is wrong with the engine"
amiss, haywire, wrong
malfunctioning, nonfunctional - not performing or able to perform its regular function; "a malfunctioning valve"
Adv. 1. awry - away from the correct or expected course; "something has gone awry in our plans"; "something went badly amiss in the preparations"
amiss
2. awry - turned or twisted to one side; "rugs lying askew"; "with his necktie twisted awry"
askew, skew-whiff
Remember the clamour of voices a long time ago about oil prices? Now we're seeing oil remain comfortably in the $70 range. It's a matter of time before that mad dog goes yelping beyond $100. Some of us thought it would be last year or this year. Every month this doesn't happen, means an even sharper crash. People who say this sort of thing are typically called 'doomsayers'.
Unfortunately, the message has been lost in noise and hysteria. The message (once again) is this: We are at a Peak, a global peak, the likes of which we will never see again. Never before and never again will so many people - so many individuals - enjoy so much lavish and luxurious wealth and power as they are now. This exceptional period of surplus and abundance has been unleashed courtesy of the legacy of fossil fuels. These fuels take millions of years of sunlight bathed forests to shore up. We've pissed half of it into the atmosphere in less than 100 years.
Until now, this fantastic We should say cheap and abundant, because from here on out, with the human population of this planet having absorbed all the capacity that such artificial energy abundance created - we are now moving towards scarcity.
The implications of this are scary. Try not to panic. I spoke recently to a wealthy private game farm owner, an intelligent doctor. He was saying that ecosystems that are out of balance don't correct themselves neatly and seamlessly. They do so in chronic and destabilising crashes. So if a certain species breaches capacity, it doesn't just slowly reduce itself until it fits into a newer and better and more balanced efficiency. Instead, it crashes.
Logic indicates that the same fate awaits us. By us I mean you and all the human beings around you, and every human being you have ever met. I know it sounds dramatic. In fact, it's impossible to overdrammatize. In our lifetimes we are going to see Big Shit. We'll see the human population crash from over 6 billion, and if we're lucky, we'll have 1 billion left over. The doctor I spoke to reckoned on less - a few hundred million perhaps.
I'm sorry if that sounds pessimistic. It's really just a logical and realistic assessment. Meanwhile, the newspapers are starting to notice that something - they're not sure what - is awry. Meanwhile, while the stock exchanges celebrate and crash through new records, so too does worldwide weather, reducing crops to debris and dust. The walls move in on a world that thinks it can continue moving on towards happily ever after. I wish it was a happy ending folks, but unfortunately, it isn't.
The major challenge in the future will be agriculture. Translation: the jobs of the future will be farming, as we attempt to feed ourselves. It's a grim and austere future that right now seems impossible. That is the extent of our common delusion.
Awry: Adj. 1. awry - turned or twisted toward one side; "a...youth with a gorgeous red necktie all awry"- G.K.Chesterton; "his wig was, as the British say, skew-whiff"
askew, cockeyed, skew-whiff, wonky, lopsided
crooked - having or marked by bends or angles; not straight or aligned; "crooked country roads"; "crooked teeth"
2. awry - not functioning properly; "something is amiss"; "has gone completely haywire"; "something is wrong with the engine"
amiss, haywire, wrong
malfunctioning, nonfunctional - not performing or able to perform its regular function; "a malfunctioning valve"
Adv. 1. awry - away from the correct or expected course; "something has gone awry in our plans"; "something went badly amiss in the preparations"
amiss
2. awry - turned or twisted to one side; "rugs lying askew"; "with his necktie twisted awry"
askew, skew-whiff
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