The Future's Bright, The Future's Orange

NVDL: Apparently from Alan Knott-Craig (CEO of Vodacom) to his staff...

2008 has certainly started with a bang! The future was rosy on 31 December 2007, but suddenly everyone is buying candles and researching property in Perth!

A combination of recession in the USA, global equity market negativity, high interest rates, the National Credit Act and power outages have combined to create the perfect storm.

But don't panic!

This is not the first time there's been doom and gloom. Every few years the same thing happens. We experience massive economic growth, everyone is optimistic and buying Nescafe Gold, and holiday homes, and Merc's. The positivity gets ahead of itself and the economy overheats, and then panic sets in because the economy seems to be collapsing when in actual fact it's simply making an adjustment back to a reasonable level.

It happened in 1989, when SA defaulted on its international loans and the stock market and Rand crashed, it happened in 1994 when the ANC took power and everyone thought war would break out, it happened in 1998 when interest rates hit 25% and you couldn't give away your house, and it happened in 2001 when a fairly unstable guy by the name of Osama arranged for 2 Boeings to fly into the tallest buildings in New York!

On each of those occasions everyone thought it was the end of the world and that there was no light in sight. And on each occasion, believe it or not, the world did not actually end, it recovered and in fact things continued to get better.

I think 2008 will be a tough year, but I also see it as a great opportunity to seize the day whilst everyone else is whinging and get a front-seat on the inevitable boom that we'll experience in 2009, 2010 and beyond.

Make sure you make a mental note of everything that is happening now, because it will happen again and again, and if you don't recognize the symptoms you'll be suckered into the same negativity, and forget to look for the opportunities.

It's easy to be negative. Subconsciously, you WANT to be negative! Whenever you open the papers they tell you about the goriest hi-jacking and the most corrupt politicians. Why don't they dedicate more pages to the fact that Joburg is the world's biggest man-made forest, or to the corruption-free achievements of the vast majority of public officials? Because bad news sells. Good news is boring.

SA still has the best weather in world! We're lucky enough to possess a huge chunk of the world's resources, i.e.: gold, platinum, coal, iron. The growth in India and China will continue to accelerate (India and China sign 10mil new mobile customers every month), and so will their demand for our resources. The government has already embarked on massive infrastructure projects (some of them a tad late, i.e.: electricity), and this will pump money into the economy.

We are all lucky enough to be a part of the birth of a massive and all-encompassing industry. The Internet has and will continue to change the world. The enormity of its impact is up there with the wheel, electricity, TV, telephones, and possibly man's greatest ever invention, coffee. Not only does it open up an entirely untapped world of commerce, but it is also the ultimate disseminator of information and news. Apartheid would not have lasted 40 years if the Internet had existed! And you're part of it!

I'm looking forward to another year of ASA complaints, IR issues, Plug & Wireless parties, BTS roll-outs, billing runs, irate customers, happy customers, orange bubbles, faulty elevators, etc, etc. The nice stuff makes me feel good, and the challenges remind me why we can beat the competition. Most importantly I'm looking forward to having fun and making memories.

So ignore the doomsayers, install a timer on your geyser, and buy Ricoffee for a couple of months.

NVDL: Yes, it's all very positive and constructive, and at any other time I'd agree and go along with these sentiments. Except we're dealing with an overarching paradigm that is simply this: we have reached the limit to (what we thought was limitless)growth. It's absolute for as long as we are unable to solve cold fusion as a way to get lots of energy out of virtually nothing, and know how to manage/use/control it. Massive populations of human beings tied to resource limits is our current reality. We were able to reach 7 billion thanks to the magical benefits of cheap oil. With oil no longer cheaps, fewer and fewer human beings can enjoy those benefits. That's a long term, I daresay, permanent shift.

Interesting: Carl Rogers

(1902-1987)
Core of Personality

I. Core Tendency: The tendency to actualize one's inherent potentialities. This potential exists in all living organisms, even plants. Humans possess an additional form - the attempt to actualize the self - called self-actualization.
II. Core Characteristics:

A. Self: The person's conscious sense of who and what you are. Is available to awareness, although not always in awareness.
1. Gradually emerges through experiences with verbal labels such as "I" or "Me".
2. Phenomenological Reality: A person's private perception of reality (whether or not it agrees with objective reality). Experience is the highest authority. If you think you are not good-looking or smart, this is part of your self concept regardless of reality.

B. Need for Positive Regard: the universal need for acceptance, love, and approval from others. Particularly important during infancy.

C. Need for Positive Self-Regard: When acceptance and approval come from within the individual and forms part of the self-concept.
Development

Rogers does not specify any developmental stages, but does make some comments. Of basic importance is the fact that one's inherent potentialities are genetically determined, while the self-concept is socially determined. Thus, there is the possibility of a difference between the two. The important influences are:
I. Conditional Positive Regard: The granting of love and approval only when behaving in accordance with parent's wishes, or when parents withdraw love if the child misbehaves. This leads to: II. Conditions of Worth (similar to superego): the individual's belief that he/she is worthy of affection only when expressing desirable behaviors.
III. Incongruence: When there is a split between organismic experience and self-concept.

A. Prevents self-actualization.
B. Leads to defensive behavior. Major defenses:
1. Denial (repression)
2. Distortion

IV. Unconditional Positive Regard: The granting of love and approval regardless of individual's behavior. Does not mean lack of restraint. If a child runs out in front of a truck, stop him and tell him it is dangerous, but don't spank him and tell him he is a bad, evil boy. (Rogers is against punishment as a means of controlling behavior).

V. Congruence: When the self concept is in agreement with inherent potentialities and there are minimal conditions of worth. Leads to openness to experience and a fulling functioning person.

Periphery of Personality

Rogers discussed only two broad types: one where the self-actualizing tendency is vigorously functioning and one where it is not.

I. Fully Functioning Person: The ideal - has received unconditional positive regard, has few conditions of worth, and has congruence between self & potentialities.

Characteristics:
A. Openness to Experience - opposite of defensiveness. Is reflective and much emotional depth (for both pleasure and pain).
B. Existential Living: Living fully in each and every moment. The absence of rigidity, is flexible, adaptable, and spontaneous.
C. Organismic Trusting:

1. Intuitive living: the ability to accept information from all bases.
2. Experience is the highest authority. If it feels right, it probably is (better than conscious thought - very different from Freud).

D. Experiential Freedom - the freedom to choose among alternatives.
E. Creativity: The ability to produce new and effective ideas and things.
II. Maladjusted Person: Has received conditional positive regard and developed conditions of worth. There is incongruence between self and potentialities.

Characteristics:
A. Defensive Living - Not open to experience
B. Live According to preconceived plan - generally laid down by parents.
C. Disregards organism - not intuitive
D. Feels manipulated - not free to choose
E. Common and conforming

III. Other comments:

A. Comparison of ideals. There is a certain amount of selfishness in Roger's theory. One critic has called Humanistic Psychology "the narcissism of our culture" - that we are so lost in self love that we fail to relate to outside reality. For example, compare the following ideal adjectives for Adler and Rogers:

1. Adler - responsible, capable, committed, effective, adaptable to social realities, social interest.
2. Rogers - experiential richness, flexibility, range of living, immediacy, change spontaneity.
B. Four characteristics of successful therapists. Rogers believed that these characteristics of the person doing therapy were more important than the therapist's philosophy or technique. Incidently, research supports this position.

1. Congruence: Good therapists can't be phoney; they must be able to relate to others honestly and sincerely. They don't have to be perfect, but can't be defensive when relating to others. Can't play games with clients.
2. Empathy: Must be able to put yourself in your client's shoes. Must be accurate empathy - not just "Yeah, I know what you are feeling, because I...".
3. Learn from Client: Good therapists can shut up and listen. Therapy is a two-way street, and the therapist should benefit from therapy also. Rogers always did 12 - 20 hrs. of therapy/ week.
4. Unconditional Positive Regard: You must genuinely like the client. You do not have to approve of his behavior, but must be able to separate the sins from the sinner. (Incidently, in seeking out a therapist, make sure you get this feeling).