Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Julia may drive Cat 4 Igor against the US East Coast

From Wunderblog: The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.

SHOOT: Julia has formed very quickly and is currently catching Igor, and heading off WNW at 14mph.  Igor is tracking due W right now at 10mph.
You can see from the above graph that Julia may well bump or box in Igor, squeezing this super storm further west than otherwise.  Keep an eye out on the circulating air abgout to enter the Gulf too.

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