Friday, June 19, 2009

Iran likely to choose the 'Zimbabwe Option'

SHOOT: What will happen in Iran now that the people don't accept the election result? The people's candidate will probably be given a 'token' position that lacks real political clout.

TIME.com: ...at his first press conference following the announcement of his victory, Ahmadinejad reportedly asked his opponents to submit lists of candidates for membership in his Cabinet.

SHOOT: Yup, sounds like the 'Zimbabwe Option'.
clipped from news.yahoo.com
Khamenei's "Divine" Retreat?
Khamenei blundered when he yoked his own position as Supreme Leader - which is typically above the factional fray of the regime's politics - so closely to Ahmadinejad. He issued a barely disguised public endorsement of the candidate, and then rushed to proclaim Ahmadinejad's "divine victory" and order all Iranians to accept it. But the mounting instability on the streets appears to have sent Khamenei into retreat, ordering the Guardian Council to investigate claims of electoral fraud.
A "Zimbabwe" Option?
The option that would likely hold the most appeal to Khamenei now would be to broker an agreement similar to the one that has kept Zimbabwe's President, Robert Mugabe, in power despite essentially losing an election - by bludgeoning the opposition into settling for an important yet subordinate role in his government.
Khamenei has appealed to a sense of national unity and preserving the regime, hoping to cajole the opposition into accepting the results.
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