Friday, December 05, 2008

How Long Will the Recession Last? Will the Recession deteriorate into a Great Depression? Will it be Greater than the one in 1929?

To be sure, this is a major recession and its downside risks in the midst of a highly volatile financial market environment shouldn't be underestimated. There are reasons, though, to believe that its severity and length will ultimately be contained by an unprecedented array of economic policy measures, some already in place, others in the pipeline. - Yahoo

NVDL: I tend to believe it will be more severe than the 'experts' lead us to believe. This is because we are not dealing with a financial crisis in isolation, and also because the financial crisis isn't just about bad credit. What exacerbated this was cheap and abundant energy became expensive and less abundant. There are also other strains on the world's food and water systems, like climate change, pollution and over population.
clipped from finance.yahoo.com

The predictions about this recession lasting through mid 2009 are mostly based on the following simple calculation: Until the NBER's announcement on Monday, the prevailing view was that the recession probably started at some point last summer and it was likely to be about average in length, by historical standards. Given that the average length of the ten recessions since World War II has been 10.4 months, with a range of 6 months in the 1980 recession to 16 months in the 1981-82 one, the natural "placeholder" time frame for the end of this recession would appear to be the middle of 2009.

However, the fact that the recession is now already 12 months old, and clearly not approaching its trough yet, raises the distinct prospect that it will exceed the length of the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions (both at 16 months), making it the longest since the Great Depression (43 months, from August 1929 to March 1933).
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