The Rain Came Too Late

Devastating drought not restricted to the Free State

Last month Bloemfontein recorded around 7mm of rain. The average figure over 30 years is 111mm. In January, the figures were in similar proportions. But when the country saw a cold front move across the subcontinent over the weekend, not only bringing rain but the relief of the first cool temperatures in weeks, it was already too late. Bloemfontein only had 7mm (March’s average is 72mm). John Purchase, General Manager of Grain South Africa, says 30% of the maize crop – at least – is already written-off.

Unfortunately, this is not where the problem ends. In the past provinces that experienced a tough season could borrow from neighboring regions, and redistribute winter feed and otherwise help each other. This year the drought and heat has affected all provinces in the country. Farmers both in the Free State and other regions do not expect to have any winter feed to tide their animals over through another dry season.

As a result of this, and the oil price, we’ll see maize prices soar. The price of Maize powder has already increased 28.34% for the year ending in December. Eggs prices have also increased almost 20%, and frozen chickens (whole), have increased more than 27%.*
When one looks at a graph of the maize price, the recent rise is shockingly sudden and sharp, creating an ever rising Everest at the end of a series of small frolicking foothills.

We can also expect the largest petrol price hike we have ever seen next month. It is rumored to be something like 80c, although by the end of March, this figure could be even more. This is due to both higher oil prices, and a weakening currency. Higher oil prices are said to be the result of ‘unexpectedly low inventories’. It is incredible that these, being as vital as they are, can be underestimated. Recent information has demonstrated that the world’s largest (and one of the oldest) giant oil fields, Ghawar, is depleting at around 8% per year. This suggests that in 10 years or less this super giant field will be dry and useless.

If you, like me, have sometimes wondered why or how on Earth it is that we’re seeing such extraordinary summer temperatures (and the average is set to continue to rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius), the answer is no mystery at all. Each time you drive your car, you’re a contributor. And there are hundreds of millions like you. The world’s weather, the oil price, food prices, and what we’ll pay to drive around in our cars, all these are connected. In fact, what we’re dealing with is a very simple symptom. Both food and oil is the same stuff: fuel. Converted solar energy. The difference is that today we have breached the carrying capacity of this planet. That simply means, there is not enough energy for everyone. Not enough energy for everyone to move around the way they’d like to (flying and driving all over the world). And not enough food, although this is really dependent on weather and transport costs. As we’re seeing, both of these are no longer favorable, and it’s getting worse.

It’s interesting that as climate change is beginning to manifest, the reason behind it (our massive use of oil, and the conversion of it into air pollution), and its costs, are becoming poignantly clear too. It is likely to remain the enduring irony of our time. But it is likely that in the future, we will not have the luxury of ironic movies, or books. We’ll have to make do without our staple of daily entertainment. In the New World, soaps and silly sitcoms will no longer be watchable simply because of the austerity going on in the world around us. We’ll have to get used to living with far less than we’re used to now.

- Meanwhile the UK has just emerged from its second warmest winter on record.

*Prices quoted from an article by Cecile Nel, in Sake24, ‘Kos-prysbult le voor’