Iran

Is the cup half empty, or half full?
by Nick van der Leek

August 2006. On this month much of the future hinges. We’ve seen some vital history in this month, and many probably doubt what is happening now is any more significant than what happened in any other month. Wrong.

In this month we have seen some of the fiercest fighting in the Middle East in decades, not only in Iraq (where civil war is said to be imminent, if it is not already a civil war), and Israel has launched an aggressive bid for its own right to survive in the region. The fighting on both these fronts is fierce, and the theatre is expanding. We’re seeing ground battles wages with larger and larger armies. Day long battles have gone on for weeks, and now it’s sure to last even longer.

It may seem irrelevant, then, to mention Alaska, but it is not. Prudhoe Bay represents one of the largest non-Middle East oil fields in the world. This field, which pipes oil south to America, has been shut down due to severe corrosion, and will be shutdown for months. As usual, this important news is immediately quashed with reports of how minimal the impact will be. How many reserves are here, and how easy it is to find capacity there. No, wrong, the impact of a 400 000 bpd cut over a period of months is a very serious strain on an already strait-jacket-tight oil market – tight enough to have the oil price hovering at $77 even before this announcement.

I don’t expect the price to breach $80 tomorrow, but you can’t hold back reality for very long. When it does breach $80, it will flood through it beyond $85. Then the words Oil Crisis will reverberate around the world and the global economic python will start to squeeze countries and the minions within them.

Against this background, we have Iran, who have been ordered to stop developing their nuclear technologies by the last day of August (that’s in about 2 and half weeks). Ali Larijani (the chief nuclear negotiator) has instead confirmed that Iran will expand the number of centrifuges they are running. They have been spinning their centrifuges in order to separate the denser material, thereby enriching the uranium. What will happen after August 31st? Something significant, either way. Either Iran will react to sanctions, or there will be some other kind of forceful measure, possibly even military, to expand America’s interest in this resource rich (in terms of energy) region.

At a news conference Larijani stated: “We will expand nuclear technology…and all of Iran’s nuclear technology including the (centrifuge) cascades…”

The West is overtly worried that this flat rejection of a UN Security Council resolution is because Iran wants to use uranium to make bombs. I doubt that this is the case. I doubt that Iran would do so given American Imperialism next door. I also doubt that Iran are being intentionally defiant. I believe Iran is well aware of how depleted their oil fields have become, they have certainly peaked in terms of production, and at the current rate of decline, Iranians know they will soon need an alternative source of energy to keep the lights on. Iran does not refine most of its own oil, it exports it as a raw product (hence is not able to use it until it is imported again as refined product). Thus Iran is in a difficult position, where its survival (long term) depends on its ability to find alternative energy.

What the West seems to forget (and leaders seldom point out), is that all activities in Iran are not secret, but under the noses of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) officials. They are right there, on the ground in Iran, following exactly what is happening. Iran is completely transparent about what they are doing.

As in the case of the West, the media, as footstools of the powers of the West, have trumpeted the words “nuclear” and “bombs” in the same way that Saddam and Iraq was associated with “WMD’s, chemical weapons, murderer, dictator.” Those are great words to scare people, and whip up self-righteous activism. Simply put, the USA doesn’t really think Iran is building bombs, they (covertly) want to go on another foray to control access to the world’s second biggest oil fields (before other countries do).

They will be only too happy if their prodding and rhetoric causes Iran to expel the inspectors. If this happens, the West will feel they have a license, a mandate to call Iran guilty, and then all bets are off. That’s the game that’s in play.

Does the USA have a choice, being by far the world’s greatest consumers of energy? Will it matter much in the scheme of things if the USA goes home and downscales itself, or whether it exhausts its energies warring and sending armies everywhere, in search of less and less treasure? Energy will become more expensive whether they (or anyone else) control Iran or not. That’s the inescapable reality, that’s the absolute bottom line.

On the other hand, Iran may well be interested in building atom bombs. It would offer them a weapon to bring about their stated ambition to ‘wipe Israel’ off the map. It would also provide insurance against the world’s greatest nuclear power(the USA has more than 10 000 nuclear missiles) making similarly reckless incursions into their territories, as happened next door. Any country that wanted to protect its interests would do the same. North Korea has, and so has Pakistan. Why isn’t American smashing down their doors? America ignores North Korea, who is far more belligerent and apparently dangerous to Western interests than almost any other country. Earlier this year 6 missiles were fired and fell short of Japan. And yet Iran is the focus of Nuclear Obsession. Yeah right.

Yes, Iran may be interested (and with good reasons to do so) but I don’t think they are. They have more vital interests in mind. They are producing just enough material to produce a single nuclear warhead in about one year. If this isn’t bomb material, then what else could it possibly be used for? Are they on track to put a number of nuclear power stations online? Are these power plants in place? Of course they are. Imagine the USA forcing SA to abandon our plans for 24 pebble bed (nuclear) reactors because it ‘seemed’ like we ‘might’ be making nuclear weapons. Absurd! We’re not building bombs; we (and Iran) just don’t have enough electricity to power the future. The USA’s screams of ‘Nuclear Bomb’ has whipped the world again into a kind of I-feel-so-threatened hysteria.

Iran are sitting on what is believed to be the world’s second biggest reservoir of oil, but are only the 4th largest exporter of the stuff. Larijani has warned the UN Security Council not to impose sanctions on Iran, and if they do he said, “…we will react in a way that would be painful for them. They should not think they can hurt us and we would stand still.”

Iran has every right to develop their nuclear technologies. If the West is concerned, then they should have people looking at developments as they’re happening. And they are.
More important than any of these issues is this: How full are those oil reservoirs in the desert? My guess, looking at what is an increasingly desperate looking country, is that Iran is way past its sell by date when it comes to its oil. That’s bad news for everyone.