IEA inquiry into whether oil supplies will run dry by 2012

SIMON BAIN

May 26 2008

The International Energy Agency has ordered an inquiry into whether the world could run out of oil in four years' time, it was reported yesterday.

The IEA has concerns about what might happen in 2012, when demand for oil, boosted by the rapid growth of the Chinese and Indian economies, is expected to have reached 95 million barrels a day. Global supply at that point is projected at only 96 million barrels a day. Such a thin margin would be vulnerable to any sudden supply crisis in volatile countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela or Iraq, now estimated to have overtaken Saudi Arabia as the biggest oil nation.

The IEA said its inquiries would form part of short and long-term forecasts to be published in July and again in November. Its energy research chief, Lawrence Eagles, said: "Up to now we have believed that supply can cope with demand. One caveat is that we don't know for certain whether estimates of reserves in countries such as Saudi Arabia are entirely accurate.

NVDL: Weren't they saying like a minute ago that we were fine until 2040 or 2070? Now suddenly it's 2012. Errr...I'm looking at my watch. That's 4 years from now...not 40...4.

By the way, we will never make 90mbpd, we peaked at about 87.5 mbpd, [In 2006, the world oil production took a downturn from 84.631 to 84.597 million barrels per day] and we've fallen off since. 87 is the most we'd ever produce, and anything above that is an interesting if pointless fantasy. People are also saying that a US and UK recession will bring oil prices down. I'm no so sure its true. When you starve a drug addict of a fix, do they want it more or less? So now, oil will start galloping soon. It's stuff too precious to be driving out to the movies, or the mall. This stuff is used to grow food, to fight the insects that eat crops, and we drive it out on happy holidays and to get take-out. Very silly humans!

Okay, you have my permission to start panicking: Oil prices pass $132 after government reports supply drop

Oil breaks $132 as U.S. supply unexpectedly drops
OPEC daily oil prices surpass $121 per barrel
Oil prices pass $132 after government reports supply drop
NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices bolted to a new record above $132 a barrel Wednesday after the government reported that supplies of crude oil and gasoline fell unexpectedly last week. And crude's rise in the futures market again pressured consumers by pulling prices at the pump higher — a gallon of regular gas rose overnight to a new record above $3.80 a gallon.

With gas and oil prices setting new records on a daily basis, many analysts are beginning to wonder whether anything can stop runaway prices. There are technical signals in the futures market, including price differences between near-term and longer-term contracts, that crude may have already risen too high. But with demand for oil growing in the developing world, and little end in sight to supply problems in oil rich nations such as Nigeria, few analysts are willing to call an end to crude's rally.

In London, July Brent crude rose $3.37 to $131.21 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

NVDL: Is there anything left to say except CRASH, BOOM, BANG? Honestly, if the world's newspaper's tomorrow don't essentially have oil as a cover story, and headlines that amount to: WE'RE ALL FUCKED, then God help us. Because we need to stop right now and treat this like it is an emergency. That's exactly what it is. If you're an individual, get your money out of the stock markets, put it into resources like coal and oil (SASOL is a great buy). If you have debts, sort them out now. Start calling up your friends, because in a few weeks you might be out of a job, and the tank of petrol that's in your car now might be one of the last. Hoarding is probably going to start; not only with individuals, but whole countries. And the worst news is those poor mobs are going to grow in number here and everywhere, so work out ways to defend and fend for yourselves, and as I say, call up friends and family and let them know you might be in the neighborhood sometime soon.