Showing posts with label implications of climate change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label implications of climate change. Show all posts

Monday, April 13, 2009

Implications of Climate Change on Water: Investment in water has been patchy and neglected


Climate Change changes the way plants grow. It increases problems of water management. Larger floods overwhelm existing controls. Reservoirs do not store enough to get people or plants through longer droughts. In addition, global warming melts glaciers and causes snow to fall as rain. Since snow and ice are natural regulators, storing water in winter and releasing it in summer, countries are swinging more violently between flood and drought. That is one big reason why dams, once a dirty word in development, have been making a comeback, especially in African countries with plenty of water but no storage capacity. The number of large dams (more than 15 metres high) has been increasing and the order books of dam builders are bulging.
And Climate change has persuaded western governments to subsidise biofuels, which could prove as big a disaster for water as they already have been for food. - Economist.com

SHOOT: If you want to be part of the solution, eat less meat. Having a more produce-oriented diet is healtheir for you, more energy and water efficient and combats Climate Change.
clipped from www.economist.com

So the shift from vegetarian diets to meaty ones—which contributed to the food-price rise of 2007-08—has big implications for water, too. In 1985 Chinese people ate, on average, 20kg of meat; this year, they will eat around 50kg. This difference translates into 390km3 (1km3 is 1 trillion litres) of water—almost as much as total water use in Europe.

The shift of diet will be impossible to reverse since it is a product of rising wealth and urbanisation. In general, “water intensity” in food increases fastest as people begin to climb out of poverty, because that is when they start eating more meat. So if living standards in the poorest countries start to rise again, water use is likely to soar.
There is growing evidence that global warming is speeding up the hydrologic cycle—that is, the rate at which water evaporates and falls again as rain or snow. This higher rate seems to make wet regions more sodden, and arid ones drier. It brings longer droughts between more intense periods of rain.

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Monday, May 19, 2008

World's poor pay price


LOS BAÑOS, Philippines: The brown plant hopper, an insect no bigger than a gnat, is multiplying by the billions and chewing through rice paddies in East Asia, threatening the diets of many poor people.

The damage to rice crops, occurring at a time of scarcity and high prices, could have been prevented. Researchers at the International Rice Research Institute here say that they know how to create rice varieties resistant to the insects but that budget cuts have prevented them from doing so.

NVDL: In exactly the same way are ability to combat H5N1's tricks and manifestations is decreasing by the day. The human race has never been more vulnerable to so many converging catastrophes as it is now, and the majority of people still take great exception to that statement, feeling it to be 'negative' or 'doomsday' or an 'exaggeration'. This willful ignorance drives us even deeper and further into the trouble we're due to face, and are presently facing.

This is a stark example of the many problems that are coming to light in the world's agricultural system. Experts say that during the food surpluses of recent decades, governments and development agencies lost focus on the importance of helping poor countries improve their agriculture.

The budgets of institutions that delivered the world from famine in the 1970s, including the rice institute, have stagnated or fallen, even as the problems they were trying to solve became harder.

"People felt that the world food crisis was solved, that food security was no longer an issue, and it really fell off the agenda," said Robert Zeigler, the director general of the rice institute.

Vital research programs have been slashed. At the rice institute, scientists have identified 14 genetic traits that could help rice plants survive the plant hopper, which sucks the juices out of young plants while infecting them with viruses. But the scientists have had no money to breed these traits into the world's most widely used rice varieties.

The institute is the world's main repository of rice seeds as well as genetic and other information about rice, the crop that feeds nearly half the world's people.

But at the International Rice Research Institute, greenhouses have peeling paint and holes in their screens and walls. Hallways are dotted with empty offices. In the 1980s, the institute employed five entomologists, or insect experts, overseeing a staff of 200. Now it has one entomologist with a staff of eight.

"We've had an exodus here," said Yvette Naredo, an assistant geneticist.

Similar troubles plague other centers in Asia, Africa and Latin America that work on crop productivity in poor countries. Agricultural experts have complained about the flagging efforts for years and warned of the risks.

"Nobody was listening," said Thomas Lumpkin, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico.

Now, a reckoning is at hand. Growth of the global food supply has slowed as the population has continued to increase, and as economic growth is giving millions of poor people the money to buy more food.

With demand beginning to outstrip supply, prices have soared, and food riots have erupted that have undermined the stability of foreign governments. World leaders are scrambling to respond. On May 1, President George W. Bush asked Congress for an extra $770 million to pay for food aid and to help farmers improve their productivity.

But cuts in agricultural research continue. The United States is in the midst of slashing, by as much as 75 percent, its $59.5 million annual support for a global research network that focuses on improving crops vital to agriculture in poor countries. That network includes the rice institute.

Robert Bertram, who oversees the funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development, said he was still trying to stop the cuts and argued that research to improve crop yields was "like putting money in the pockets of poor people, and I mean billions of poor people."

The Agency for International Development is the primary vehicle for the U.S. government to finance development projects abroad. James Kunder, its acting deputy administrator, said the agency hoped to reconsider the cutbacks if Congress allows extra money.

Crop by crop and country by country, agricultural research and development are lagging.

The biggest cutbacks have come in donations to agriculture in poor countries from the governments of wealthy countries and in loans from development institutions that the wealthy governments control, like the World Bank. Such projects include not only research on pests and crops but also programs to help farmers adopt improved methods in their fields.

Adjusting for inflation and exchange rates, the wealthy countries, as a group, cut such donations by more than half from 1980 to 2006, to $2.8 billion a year from $6 billion.

"Agriculture has been so productive and done so well, people have kind of lost sight of how fragile it really is," said Jan Leach, a plant pathologist at Colorado State University who works with rice.

"It's as if we have lost track of the fact that food is linked to agriculture, which is linked to human survival."


More.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Finance Ministers Emphasize Food Crisis Over Credit Crisis

WASHINGTON — The world’s economic ministers declared on Sunday that shortages and skyrocketing prices for food posed a potentially greater threat to economic and political stability than the turmoil in capital markets.

More.

NVDL: It might be possible for the stupid and deluded masses to begin to see the obvious signals now. High oil prices = high food prices + climate change = higher food prices + increased activity to attempt to continue our easy motoring culture (eg biofuel farming) = increased climate change + higher fuel/food prices = wiping out the poor, then the middle class. The poor and middle class won't take kindly to being wiped out, and the backlash will herald a particularly austere period for a world that is already de-stabilised for its own reasons. In a period where human communities need to be particularly effective, organised and able to mobilise, we will most likely resort to chaos and war, making the situation worse (for ourselves), but at least by and large the problem of over-consumption, excessive demand etc will be solved by a self-culling of our species. Equilibrium after aftershoot demands a crash, and it is likely to be spectacularly catastrophic.

Sorry if this sounds doomsdayish. If your house is burning and you wake the person up and say, "Your house is burning," he is perfectly entitled to say, "That's very negative; the end of the world is by no means nigh, and besides, looking around me I can't see or smell anything that would lead me to believe you," and go back to sleep. But the person who sees the curtains curling up in flames and the persian carpets starting to smoke is also perfectly justified to prod the sleeper awake and at least attempt to let him know - unpleasant as the news is - what is happening and what is imminently going to happen.

Calling it 'doomsday' is the sort of dismissive attitude to bad news that has gotten humanity slogging through shit filled marshlands.

Friday, April 04, 2008

Global food crisis looms as grain prices soar

RICE and maize hit record prices yesterday on speculation that global demand for cereals would not be met as governments in producer countries curb exports to prevent protests.

Rice, the staple food for about 3-billion people — nearly half the world’s population — rose 2,4% in Chicago yesterday after doubling in the past year. Soya beans advanced for the third day and wheat also rose.

Harvests have been reduced by drought in countries including Canada and Australia, and by a US freeze followed by excessive rain last year. China, India and Vietnam have cut rice exports and Indonesia has reduced import tariffs to protect food supplies and cool inflation.

Rest of this Business Day article here.

NVDL: And guys like Mobius are dreaming that emerging growth market is going to carry on singing over the long term. It's not going to happen. There has been a fundamental shift in the system, and we are now heading down the other side of the bell curve (towards contraction).

Friday, November 23, 2007

Yesterday's All Time Climate Records (South Africa)

Highest Daily Rain
Previously: 78.0mm 1983-11-28
Now: 80.0mm 2007-11-21
Location: Senekal

Highest Daily Rain
Previously: 39.5mm 1964-11-06
Now: 40.8mm 2007-11-21
Location: Cape Agulhas

Highest Daily Rain
Previously: 26.2mm 1997-11-16
Now: 46.2 2007-11-21
Struisbaai

Highest Daily Rain
24.8mm 1996-11-19
33.0mm 2007-11-21
Hermanus

Highest Daily Rain
44.2mm 2001-11-19
101.0mm 2007-11-21
Tygerhoek

Highest Daily Rain
86.0mm 1976-11-23
152.4mm 2007-11-21
Villiersdorp

Highest Daily Rain
16.6mm 2001-11-19
79.2mm 2007-11-21
Worcester

Highest Daily Rain
21.5mm 1976-11-23
65.0mm 2007-11-21
Mcgregor

Highest Daily Rain
41.0mm 1980-11-30
60.0mm 2007-11-21
Robertson

Highest Daily Rain
54.6mm 1995-11-21
71.8mm 2007-11-21
Greytown

Highest Daily Rain
53.0mm 1960-11-12
98.0mm 2007-11-21
Heidelberg

Highest Daily Rain
111.0mm 1996-11-21
206.0mm 2007-11-21
George Weather Office

Highest Daily Rain
82.6mm 1996-11-21
112.4mm 2007-11-21
Knysna

Highest Daily Rain
37.0mm 2000-11-12
41.2mm 2007-11-21
Joubertina

Highest Daily Rain
51.0mm 1982-11-15
55.0mm 2007-11-21
Ladismith AWS

Highest Daily Rain
37.0mm 2000-11-17
41.6mm 2007-11-21
Ladismith

Lowest Maximum
16.5 2002-11-03
15.8 2007-11-21
Molteno Reservior

NVDL: I see George receive 206mm in a single day. I was in George a few weeks ago, and the farms were suffering from one of the driest periods in human memory. It had been so dry that there had been terrible veld fires, and the mountains and landscapes had turned a brittle yellow/khaki green. It doesn't help to lose out on winter rainfall altogether, then have it all made up in a single day. But climate change basically heralds unstable, chaotic, extreme weather. Droughts, floods, unusual weather. Under these conditions, life takes strain, because there is no longer an established pattern to the weather, meaning life sukkels.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Reflections: N is not for Negativity

People will say: Why are you so negative. Climate, oil prices, banks, recession. Can't you be more positive? I'm afraid if you can't see the reality, I can't provide you with a convincing reason. Take my word for it, if you are lying in a car wreck, you tend not to be thinking about TV, or shopping. Or put in another way: if you are in some serious traffic (with an anomaly of drunk drivers perhaps) and you're seeing car wrecks happening with increasingly frequency around you, BRGGGGGGGHHHH - ooooh that was close...it would be sensible to:
- turn off the radio
- turn on your lights
- make sure your seatbelt is in place
- CONCENTRATE

The idea in such a scenario cannot be to 'think happy thoughts' but to monitor what is going on around you; to be ALERT. Survival is serious, and the word isn't used casually here. It really is about survival, especially when species around us are dropping like flies. Especially when diseases like AIDS and H5N1 (designed specifically against human immunity) are fluctuating, and adapting. The fact is, some pretty terrifying cumulative shit is going on. So far we haven't even mentioned the shit people are doing to each other, or the shit being reflected in the sem-delusional financial markets. The 9/11 thing going nuclear is a very real daily threat. But we lose a sense of urgency because the information coming through is mixed up with Britney Spears and Reality TV.

MORE

There is just so much info that we file it all under INFOTAINMENT. But some of this shit is real. And some of that reality is starting to bite. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, this isn't a temporarily slip either. It's a permanent decline.

Disconnected

We are so disconnected from reality that we aren't able to see the the wood, the trees or that the forest is on fire. Right there, that thought, that goes: Oooh you are exagerating, the metaphor isn't accurate. That is faulty. Actually, although we might be able to drive home today and watch TV, and eat cornflakes tomorrow morning, that same future we've enjoyed and felt entitled to is actually rapidly dissipating.

See, human beings like you don't easily respond to threats or advice. When your parents warned you against premarital sex, did you listen? Human beings aren't easily dissauded from their appetites unless they are forced to change. Unfortunately, some scenarios are subtle. What happens is by the time the scenario has manifested in a way that behavioural change seems sensible, or can be forced, the manifestation is basically underway as a system. It's like a surfer watching a wave. Maybe you notice the wave is getting too big to ride. Problem is, you find that out only once it IS too big. So how do you avoid that? You study the surf, the wind, the patterns...you get local knowledge. Everyone knows that no one is going to do that. Hence, we will all get to see a tremendous amount of SHIT happening in our lifetimes.

When it happens, please do not get angry. Please don't blame anyone. Remember how you searched sites like this one, gleefully turning concerns into 'perspective'; YOU made them popular, wishing your wishy washy route that reality would somehow circumvent you. That sort of thinking isn't positive, it's insane.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

USA Faces Exceptional Drought Crisis

And it is worsening. In 5 years 36 States are projected to experience catastrophic water shortages. Not 50 years, not 15 years, 5 years.

To appreciate how serious the conditions have become, notice how large the BLACK area is in the graphic above. These are large areas that are exceptionally and unusually dry.

To watch a video on the drought crisis in the US, go here.
Meanwhile consider this 2 year old CNN article below: UK scientists slam U.S. climate loonies. Loonies because they were arguing that the 'exceptional' hurricane season was not related to human activity, and that warming wasn't a certainty. It amounted to entrophy, all that dilly dallying and flip flopping. Right now, right now in the world, in everything we do, delay matters.

Farmer's around the world are going to have to learn how to conjure crops as weather becomes erratic, transitioning from droughts to floods to storms and all the way back and forth, again and again.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Nature: The Future is Drying Up (NYT)


“There’s a two-thirds chance there will be a disaster,” Chu said, “and that’s in the best scenario.”
By JON GERTNER

Scientists sometimes refer to the effect a hotter world will have on this country’s fresh water as the other water problem, because global warming more commonly evokes the specter of rising oceans submerging our great coastal cities. By comparison, the steady decrease in mountain snowpack — the loss of the deep accumulation of high-altitude winter snow that melts each spring to provide the American West with most of its water — seems to be a more modest worry. But not all researchers agree with this ranking of dangers.

Last May, for instance, Steven Chu, a Nobel laureate and the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, one of the United States government’s pre-eminent research facilities, remarked that diminished supplies of fresh water might prove a far more serious problem than slowly rising seas. When I met with Chu last summer in Berkeley, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, which provides most of the water for Northern California, was at its lowest level in 20 years.

Chu noted that even the most optimistic climate models for the second half of this century suggest that 30 to 70 percent of the snowpack will disappear. “There’s a two-thirds chance there will be a disaster,” Chu said, “and that’s in the best scenario.”

In the Southwest this past summer, the outlook was equally sobering. A catastrophic reduction in the flow of the Colorado River — which mostly consists of snowmelt from the Rocky Mountains — has always served as a kind of thought experiment for water engineers, a risk situation from the outer edge of their practical imaginations. Some 30 million people depend on that water. A greatly reduced river would wreak chaos in seven states: Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California.

An almost unfathomable legal morass might well result, with farmers suing the federal government; cities suing cities; states suing states; Indian nations suing state officials; and foreign nations (by treaty, Mexico has a small claim on the river) bringing international law to bear on the United States government.

For the rest of this New York Times article go here.
Image courtesy Simon Norfolk/NB Pictures, for The New York Times.

NVDL: So you begin to notice the convergence of these unexpected strains on human populations (which Kunstler describes as 'converging catastropjes'.) Not having fresh water is obviously ANOTHER fundamental flaw to a society that plans to continue to flourish, or simply remain self-indulgent. When you follow the information streaming in, it turns out we are not as smart - as a species - not nearly, as we thought. For that we will pay our price.