El Nino is back - which means fewer hurricanes, more fires

At present, forecasters do not expect this El Niño to equal that of 1998, but it may be the second-strongest, and concerned groups, from international insurance companies to commodity traders, to aid agencies such as Oxfam, have begun to follow its progress anxiously. Its potential for economic and social impact is considerable.

The last El Niño was in 2006-07 and, at its peak, sea surface temperatures averaged about 0.9 degrees above normal. But this is a stage which has already been reached by this one.

SHOOT: More droughts in South Africa. This winter has definitely been colder than the last, in Johannesburg at any rate.

clipped from www.independent.co.uk A new El Niño has begun. The sporadic Pacific Ocean warming, which can disrupt weather patterns across the world, is intensifying, say meteorologists. So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record. The cyclical phenomenon, which happens every two to seven years, is a major determinant of global weather systems. The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year, and caused major droughts and catastrophic forest fires in South-east Asia which sent a pall of smoke right across the region. Professor Chris Folland, of the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, said: "We are likely to see more global warming than we have seen in the past few years, which have been rather cool. In fact, we are already seeing it."

Global Warming Predicates a Permanent El Nino

Hasta La Vista Amazon Rainforest

Sophisticated climate models demonstrated a disturbing trend: that global warming will induce a permanent state of El Nino. El Nino involves the significant increase of surface sea temperatures around the Pacific coastline of Peru. This induces warming in the atmosphere immediately above, and then feeds into worldwide weather systems. Until the present era, El Nino was an undesirable, but temporary phenomenon.

The current trend is for far more frequent El Nino’s, and a worsening of the concomitant infection into world weather systems.

How El Nino Affects You

Firstly, El Nino affects global weather patterns dramatically. For Africa this means flooding in the northern and central regions (currently 14 African countries are experiencing chronic flooding), while in the southern region, chronic and sustained drought is the order of the day (presently happening).

For America, warmer winters are the order of the day in the upper Midwest, while the southwestern area is cooler and wetter. Decreased hurricane activity is possibly (unless global warming is sufficiently high).

Southeast Asia and the Northern Parts of Australia will experience droughts, with the increased threats of fire and unhealthy smog levels.

Amazon Rainforest

But the most dangerous effect of El Nino is the persistent drying of Bolivia and the Amazon River Basin. Tropical rainforests require fairly specialized conditions, too little rain, or too warm conditions for a few extra weeks can mean the difference between a rainforest and brush land.
Right now the Amazon is estimated to be absorbing 20% or more of the world’s carbon dioxide (acting as a carbon sink). If the climate models for El Nino are correct, within 50 years the Amazon could have disappeared altogether, and not only will there be no absorbtion of CO2 in this territory, but the sink will begin to act as a giant carbon emitter. Fires especially can play a role in the reversal of the system that converts carbon into organic plant structures.

Global Warming

What underlies the Permament El Nino state is a certain threshold of global warming. Recent El Nino’s have occurred in the following chronology: 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, and 2006-2007.

The numbers suggest that we are almost at a permanent El Nino state.