Epiphanies: 122, 22 000 and 200

What do these numbers mean to you? 122/22 000/200. Right now the oil price is at an all time record of $122 and to say that it sneaked up to this level is a con. The oil price has been setting records and then smashing through its own ceiling not even $1 at a time, sometimes by $2 and even $3. This demonstrates how powerful the pricing pressure (and concerns over supply) actually are.

22 000 is the latest estimate for the number of people to have died in the latest super-storm - once again the most powerful storm in living memory. Once again the weather has eroded an entire regions capacity to produce something - in this case rice.

Myanmar overnight goes from being an anticipated Asian region rice exporter, to a nett importer.
Are farmers busy harvesting rice in Myanmar? The images we see instead are 100 year old trees with 6 feet wide stems completely uprooted that have demolished small buildings.

We also see large supplies of food being loaded into large aircraft and sent to remedy the local storm-afflicted areas.

All of this costs even more energy. Any idea why we are seeing massive storms like this? Well, the sheer amounts of energy we pump into the atmosphere each day has started to manifest. And the emphasis should be made that we are only starting to see the effect of heating - it has taken a long time for the oceans and ecosystems to absorb and attempt to shed and produce a sort of heat exchange. Those systems have begun to degrade and there is no end in sight to man's daily culpability to this.

Today and tomorrow you will continue to drive your car to work, and it is this simple activity that causes massive systems apparently a world away.

200 is the figure being flauted as a possible level for oil prices this year. While we have heard endless talk about oil prices being too high, now some sanity (reality) has come into the picture. Oil is an incredibly precious resource. If you look at food prices, a lot of why they are so high is because fertlizer costs have virtually doubled. We need oil to keep our crops growing, to kill the pests that feed on them, to make medicines, for the plastics that we use and dispose of each day. Oil is the blood that pumps through suburbia. It is far more precious than we think it is, and even $200 is cheap. I believe we will hit $300 before we see really significant demand destruction. While really high prices will lock out most of the world's population early on, it will only begin to affect the real consumers of oil - car drivers and people living in suburbia - much later in the game. Hence, oil still has a long way to go, and while those numbers tick upward, have a look at the sky above your head.
Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300

March 29, 2007

ALERT: Very Severe Cyclone Heading For Bengal and Bangladesh (CAT 4)

West Bengal went on alert as meteorological department officials said a severe cyclone is likely to hit the coastal areas of the state late Thursday or early Friday morning.

''A very severe cyclone is expected to hit the eastern coastal zones of West Bengal and Bangladesh, affecting Orissa as well. A cyclone alert has already been sounded in South and North 24-Parganas, East and West Midnapore, Howrah and Hooghly districts,'' said an official of the Alipur met office.

Also read: Powerful Cyclone Headed For Bangladesh

Fishermen have been asked not to go out to sea.

''Widespread rain and thundershowers are expected at places in the Gangetic basin in West Bengal. And if it intensifies and remains on course, the cyclone may hit Kolkata also,'' the met official said, adding that a 'high alert' has been issued for Kolkata's Hooghly port.

The Shipping Corporation of India has indefinitely postponed departures from Kolkata port, reports said.

The US Consulate has issued a warning for American citizens living or travelling in the coastal areas of West Bengal and Orissa.

''This message is to update US citizens residing or travelling in Orissa and West Bengal regions of India of developments regarding cyclone Sidr, which is in the Bay of Bengal and headed towards the northern Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh,'' a statement issued by the consulate said.

''The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre forecasts the cyclone could make landfall as early as Thursday evening. The Tropical Storm Risk Centre has now classified cyclone Sidr as a category four storm with forecasted wind gusts of up to 225-280 kmph,'' it said.

The consulate also urged US citizens to monitor the progress of the storm in the local media ''as it can be expected to cause heavy rain, flooding, strong wind, damage to buildings and other possibly life threatening conditions.

''Americans in the region should immediately prepare for the possibility that they could be without power or communications and unable to move by road for some time if the storm hits their area. Airports and seaports are also likely to be closed,'' the warning said.

According to official estimates, the super cyclone that had hit the coastal areas of Orissa on October 29, 1999 had killed about 10,000 people and left 15 million homeless. Large swathes of the state's farmland were also destroyed in the disaster.

From NDTV.com

NVDL: The Atlantic has had a quiet hurricane season. Interestingly, the hotspots have been on land this time round in the US, with lakes drying up almost completely. So take your pick if you're an American. droughts, or city destroying hurricanes (that could hit or miss)? This is the gamble that faces more and more people wherever they are in the world. Cyclones are beginning to hassle us even here in South Africa, with the biggest threat being the continual carving of the KwaZulu Natal shoreline and extensive flooding.