It's Cool by the Pool - isn't it? [COLUMN]

As the event wore on, even Obama did not seem that into it, a surprising misfire for a politician who has long excelled at always striking the right tone at public appearances...

If you want to find something to be positive about, it's not that hard. There's this story which crows that housing prices are 'surging' again. A little common sense tells you that this is a con - just the iota of information that unemployment in the USA continues to rise, tells you this is a bogus story that may be true in a few, exceptional circumstances. It's hardly a trend.

Here's the real guts of what's happening (from the same article):

Gasoline prices jumped 8.7 percent in February after a 15 percent surge in January.

Food costs fell for a third straight month, dropping 1.6 percent in February, the biggest one-month decline in three years. The costs of eggs, fruits, vegetables and dairy products were all down.

Outside of food and energy, prices for cigarettes rose 2.7 percent, the biggest increase in two years, while the price of light trucks rose 1.3 percent, a gain that is not expected to last given the weakness in auto sales.

Prices for computers dropped 4.5 percent, the biggest one-month fall since January 2005.

If you can read the above and not see that gasoline prices really tell the whole story. If gas prices are going up it means food costs will too, so will computers and everything else. By the way, those gas price increases weren't small. 9% + 15% = 24% in 2 months. Compare those to the price changes in the other sectors.

Meanwhile, you may be wishing that the recession, by some trick of the light, or some sleight of hand, magically disappeared. If so, read this.

Meanwhile I was running in the gym earlier this week and felt tired, my heart rate much higher than usual. The reason was because I had had an unpleasant encounter with a very nice person that I have the pleasure of dealing with each day. This stress translated into my exercise...and was effectively running me down. I had to consciously try to block thoughts of this person out of my mind in order for my heart rate to settle. I am not sure if I succeeded. The point is to what extent our experiences affect us - bad headlines, bad news, people around us passing on their stress and bad vibes to us like a virus.

Good news - Peak Oil

Recently I had a few curious thoughts. One was that one can spend years of your life, perhaps decades, worrying, warning, predicting the worst. What if it never happens? While there is some wisdom in that (enjoy life regardless, enjoy the moment) unfortunately in this instance it's not true. If you're alive right now you're going to experience some fundamental changes in the human condition. We have lived in some dizzy times - of materialism and indulgence (including sexual indulgence). The overload of this period is incredible - not only in terms of noise and pollution and lack of time and attention, but also the strain we've put on our fellow creatures. And of course our children. We've mortgaged their future. By using up massive endowments of fossil fuel, we've really left them with very little to work with. This appears to be one of the big differences between the Boomers and Generation X. For all GENX's pessimism, we did care about our own children, and what we'd be leaving them with. All the Boomers cared about was HAVING children.

GENX's concerns appear to be more than warranted. The good news is that if every human being does his best to ignore all the warnings (which actually appears to be the case) we will still fail to consume in the future as we have in the past, and we will, sooner or even sooner than that, run into shortages of fuel. There is no better antidote to what we are doing to our Climate than to run out of the means to do so. This is good news!

Bad News - Climate

The bad news is plenty of damage has been done - already - to the atmosphere, the environment, our ability to access fresh water, and to grow food. The bad news is our population is about to reach 7 billion, and as we reach this milestone (around our necks) those 7 billion are likely to suffer from massive crop failures brought about by droughts, floods, fires, probably war and unrest too. We've already seen massive failures in Myanmar and the MidWest.

Hope

In Barrack Obama the world thought they had reason to hope. It's a tough call. Obama's job approval rating is already slipping a bit, down to 59 percent from 64 percent a month ago. The dominant issue on the public's mind remains the economy. But whoever comes into power or leadership now will bear the brunt of blame.

In South Africa we see the major political party with a thug at its helm, and at number 5, a woman convicted of over 43 counts of fraud (also suspected of murder). It is obvious that this party hopes to become ZANU-PF. A corrupt parasite that enriches itself at the expense of the rest, blaming Apartheid, whites, Britain and America until the cows come home. Africa is slow to learn its lessons, and despite the ominous threat posed by a now corrupt ANC (what many whites feared in 1990), poor Africans will vote the ANC into power again.

As I've said, any party in power during this period is likely to be blamed and hated by generations to come. Obama, unless he stands up for the Middle Class (based on his own wit, not following the wits of a comic on The Daily Show), stands to be kicked out of the White House or impeached once it turns out that economic failures and miseries are growing unabated. It may not be Obama's fault, but populist policies will fail today. True wisdom, true insight, true leadership stands to be rewarded, and leaders and madmen are likely to emerge from unexpected quarters.

The fury in suburbia (and the slums) is growing.

It's Cool by the Pool - isn't it? [COLUMN]

The stakes are higher than we can imagine

On the face of this, Israel's foray in Gaza may seem like another vigorous and bloody tussle in the dust in a long history of conflict. But there are deeper and darker reasons behind not only Israel's eager assault into Gaza, but also the timing of the Hamas attack.

As it happens, the West's appetite for war must be at an all-time low one reason being the financial crisis crippling resources on home soil. So Hamas must have known a military adventure - which is little more than lobbing a few home-made bombs over a wall and holding thumbs - during the festive season would pay off.

Doing so during the festive season was also likely to catch the West napping. Incidentally the same period when Saddam Hussein was executed - when no one was watching) could pay off.

The strategy from Hamas is simple. They want a response from Israel, they want civilian casualties both to rally support from Arab moderates in the region and to turn world sentiment against Israel. The recent shelling of a school (where more than 30 civilians were killed) fits Hamas' plans perfectly.

War has deteriorated in our present circumstances to a blur of terrorism and criminality - particularly when the foe faces a more powerful counterpart who is better equipped and more sophisticated. Not so long ago adversaries held some respect for each other, even guerrilla forces. But terrorism essentially is an asymmetrical conflict. It's an invisible war.

Some presumably Jewish people have commented that Israel has been provoked for a long time, and they have every right to respond after the recent 'final straw'. The casualties though are already disproportionate. At the time of writing more than 635 Palestinians have died, most of them civilians,and more than 130 of these children - while 7 Israeli soldiers have lost their lives.

Each day the ground offensive continues, the stakes go up a great deal. Why? Because Iran's Hezbollah are itching to demonstrate their own power. And the Israeli army are in a sense vulnerable - deployed all over Gaza City.

Iran is a poorer country than it was a few months ago. And with the Iraq war on the back burner, there may be thoughts of entrenching power in the region by all the players.

The USA has stated that it wants to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capability and Israel has said the same. This foray could escalate into a theatre which finally addresses this issue.
It may be that the USA and Israel have been complicit in enthusiastically deploying into Gaza.

Whether or not this is true, if Iran steps in the Middle East tinderbox could ignite, drawing in many other players, including Pakistan, China and possibly Russia on the one hand, and a weak western force.

Whatever happens, there can be no doubt that given the strain - financial and otherwise - that the world finds itself in at present, each day this conflict continues invites an escalation which could become unprecedented.