The World Health Organisation puts the risk level at "phase 3" out of six on its pandemic alert scale, which means that a new flu strain has appeared in humans but is not yet spreading from person to person. It is impossible to predict when the next flu pandemic will happen, but experts say we are living on borrowed time.
The big worry is the particularly deadly strain of H5N1 bird flu circulating mainly in south-east Asia - so far it has infected 335 people and killed 206 (mainly poor farmers who live in close proximity with their poultry). If it were to mutate or swap genes with a human flu virus so that it was more easily transmitted between humans, we could face a pandemic.
by James Randerson for The Guardian
It is this scenario that prompted the government to bolster its plans for dealing with flu last week. Health ministers have ordered that the current stockpile of 14.6m doses of the antiviral drug tamiflu be increased by another 15m at a cost of around £150m. That will allow doctors to give the drugs preventatively to the families of people who become infected and not just people who contract the virus. Estimates of the number of people in the UK who would be killed in a future pandemic range from 55,000 to 750,000.
Last century there were three pandemics. The 1968-69 Hong Kong flu killed up to a million people globally, the 1957-58 Asian flu killed up to 1.5 million and the mother of them all, the 1918-20 Spanish flu, killed around 40 million - more than the first world war. There is no regular cycle governing pandemics, but the long gap since the last one is making experts jumpy. And since the last epidemic in 1968 air travel has become more common, meaning that if a pandemic virus emerged, it could spread around the globe more quickly.
NVDL: I once interviewed an expert at the University of the Free State, Professor Bragg. He said, 'There's basically diddly squat we can do about it'. I called that interview 'A Matter Of When'. I also attended a Tamiflu conference and the expert there, John Oxford, said the same thing.
Showing posts with label Guardian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guardian. Show all posts
Monday, November 26, 2007
Friday, October 26, 2007
Humanity at risk (NVDL
The future of humanity has been put at risk by a failure to address environmental problems including climate change, species extinction and a growing human population, according to a new UN report.
In a sweeping audit of the world's environmental wellbeing, the study by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that governments are still failing to recognise the seriousness of major environmental issues.
The study, involving more than 1,400 scientists, found that human consumption had far outstripped available resources. Each person on Earth now requires a third more land to supply his or her needs than the planet can supply, it finds.
Meanwhile, biodiversity is seriously threatened by the impact of human activities: 30% of amphibians, 23% of mammals and 12% of birds are under threat of extinction, while one in 10 of the world's large rivers runs dry every year before it reaches the sea.
The report - entitled Global Environment Outlook: Environment for Development - reviews progress made since a similar study in 1987 which laid the groundwork for studying environmental issues affecting the planet.
Since the 1987 study, Our Common Future, the global response "has in some cases been courageous and inspiring," said the environment programme's executive director Achim Steiner. The international community has cut ozone-damaging chemicals, negotiated the Kyoto protocol and other international environmental treaties and supported a rise in protected areas which cover 12% of the world.
"But all too often [the response] has been slow and at a pace and scale that fails to respond to or recognise the magnitude of the challenges facing the people and the environment of the planet," Mr Steiner said. "The systematic destruction of the Earth's natural and nature-based resources has reached a point where the economic viability of economies is being challenged - and where the bill we hand to our children may prove impossible to pay," he said.
Climate change is a global priority that demands political leadership, but there has been "a remarkable lack of urgency" in the response, which the report characterised as "woefully inadequate".
For the rest of this Guardian.co.uk article, go here. (Thanks J).
NVDL: What we need is Nature Virtue Decency and Logic. But it starts with Nature, and not Human Nature, getting back to Nature, and remember the concept of Nature as our Mother. Mother Nature. Without her we inhabit a world without beauty, without sense, without love. And such a place and its habitants is doomed. We know this, but we still think delay is okay. In fact, delay matters a great deal. The cover of TIME magazine in SA is also splattered green, and features the world's greenest people.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Crude awakening
Sarah Phillips asks why aren't more people talking about the imminent oil supply crisis?
"2007 is likely to go down as the year peak oil went mainstream", predicts David Strahan on the environment pages in today's Guardian
Strahan's book The Last Oil Shock is likely to play a part in instigating such discussions about the impending oil supply crisis. As is A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash, a powerful Swiss documentary on peak oil, which finally gets a UK cinema release next month.
In a similar vein to An Inconvenient Truth, the film, which is a collaboration between broadcast journalist, Basil Gelpke, and TV producer, Ray McCormack, and is both shocking and compelling.
Initially the pair worked on a film about global warming simultaneously. When they learned of Al Gore's project, they decided to stick with oil. The filmmakers have joked that all that is missing from their film is Gore himself. As McCormack explained to me when I met him in London earlier on this year: "It's a lot easier to bring a documentary to the attention of the public if you have a well known figure in front of the camera and sadly we don't have that, so we're at a bit of a disadvantage."
Taking part in the film for McCormack, a self-confessed "greenie", was a no-brainer. Already living his principles - he has not owned a car for 13 years and is a member of a 40,000 strong car pool in Switzerland, where he lives - this was the perfect opportunity to spread the word.
Nevertheless A Crude Awakening is an impressive documentary in its own right and has achieved a great deal already without a big name on the poster. It has been screened at numerous festivals, was seen on general release in Canada and Switzerland and is scheduled to be shown on television in several countries, including America.
Reactions to the film have been overwhelmingly positive. David Herron at 7gen, describes it as: "a visually stunning, boldly prophetic testament which provokes not just thought but action." The Guardian's Mark Oliver says it is "one of the most frightening films you are ever likely to see." And Brian Carr, of Daily Fuel Economy Tip, attests: "The thing that impressed me the most about A Crude Awakening was the fact that the information was presented in a relatively non-slanted way; this wasn't a Michael Moore type of "documentary" rather it was, in essence, an hour and a half long public service announcement asking us to wake up to the reality that at some point the world is going to run out of oil and we need to take steps now to ensure that when that day comes we'll be prepared."
McCormack says: "For a lot of people, their initial reaction is complete shock at the content of the film, the idea that we're so dependent on oil, it's in every aspect of our lives, and that the production of it is going to fall off very soon. It's not disbelief, but shock and a realisation of just how unprepared we are for the future as oil production starts to fall off."
This surprise is something that McCormack himself can relate to, as despite taking a degree in environmental policy, he hadn't really encountered peak oil until Gelpke approached him with the film. "I'd never come across it and that's what startled me. As soon as it is explained it's totally rational and logical. Oil is a non-renewable resource, so it's going to run out sooner or later. And before it runs out, production will start to fall."
But despite there being an alarming lack of awareness about peak oil, there are an increasing number of people from varying sides of the political spectrum who are not only aware of the problem at hand, but prepared to speak openly about it. One surprise of A Crude Awakening is the amount of conservative voices gladly stepping forward to share their views on the debate. These range from a Republican congressman, an energy advisor to George Bush and a former Iraqi oil minister. The only eco-warrior is the hugely entertaining, Matthew Savinar, founder of lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
On the subject of Iraq, McCormack makes it clear that he feels peak oil is very much a political issue: "Most people now can see that one of the reasons for going into Iraq was to secure oil. When a country has only a few percent of the world's oil reserves and consumes 22% of the world's oil reserves, their decision to invade a country that is rich in oil has to be part of their geopolitical strategy and not purely to bring democracy to a country that will be impossible to democratise."
As the film proves, oil may be an intrinsic part of our present and future, but why aren't more people talking about it?
From Guardian.co.uk Blogs
"2007 is likely to go down as the year peak oil went mainstream", predicts David Strahan on the environment pages in today's Guardian
Strahan's book The Last Oil Shock is likely to play a part in instigating such discussions about the impending oil supply crisis. As is A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash, a powerful Swiss documentary on peak oil, which finally gets a UK cinema release next month.
In a similar vein to An Inconvenient Truth, the film, which is a collaboration between broadcast journalist, Basil Gelpke, and TV producer, Ray McCormack, and is both shocking and compelling.
Initially the pair worked on a film about global warming simultaneously. When they learned of Al Gore's project, they decided to stick with oil. The filmmakers have joked that all that is missing from their film is Gore himself. As McCormack explained to me when I met him in London earlier on this year: "It's a lot easier to bring a documentary to the attention of the public if you have a well known figure in front of the camera and sadly we don't have that, so we're at a bit of a disadvantage."
Taking part in the film for McCormack, a self-confessed "greenie", was a no-brainer. Already living his principles - he has not owned a car for 13 years and is a member of a 40,000 strong car pool in Switzerland, where he lives - this was the perfect opportunity to spread the word.
Nevertheless A Crude Awakening is an impressive documentary in its own right and has achieved a great deal already without a big name on the poster. It has been screened at numerous festivals, was seen on general release in Canada and Switzerland and is scheduled to be shown on television in several countries, including America.
Reactions to the film have been overwhelmingly positive. David Herron at 7gen, describes it as: "a visually stunning, boldly prophetic testament which provokes not just thought but action." The Guardian's Mark Oliver says it is "one of the most frightening films you are ever likely to see." And Brian Carr, of Daily Fuel Economy Tip, attests: "The thing that impressed me the most about A Crude Awakening was the fact that the information was presented in a relatively non-slanted way; this wasn't a Michael Moore type of "documentary" rather it was, in essence, an hour and a half long public service announcement asking us to wake up to the reality that at some point the world is going to run out of oil and we need to take steps now to ensure that when that day comes we'll be prepared."
McCormack says: "For a lot of people, their initial reaction is complete shock at the content of the film, the idea that we're so dependent on oil, it's in every aspect of our lives, and that the production of it is going to fall off very soon. It's not disbelief, but shock and a realisation of just how unprepared we are for the future as oil production starts to fall off."
This surprise is something that McCormack himself can relate to, as despite taking a degree in environmental policy, he hadn't really encountered peak oil until Gelpke approached him with the film. "I'd never come across it and that's what startled me. As soon as it is explained it's totally rational and logical. Oil is a non-renewable resource, so it's going to run out sooner or later. And before it runs out, production will start to fall."
But despite there being an alarming lack of awareness about peak oil, there are an increasing number of people from varying sides of the political spectrum who are not only aware of the problem at hand, but prepared to speak openly about it. One surprise of A Crude Awakening is the amount of conservative voices gladly stepping forward to share their views on the debate. These range from a Republican congressman, an energy advisor to George Bush and a former Iraqi oil minister. The only eco-warrior is the hugely entertaining, Matthew Savinar, founder of lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
On the subject of Iraq, McCormack makes it clear that he feels peak oil is very much a political issue: "Most people now can see that one of the reasons for going into Iraq was to secure oil. When a country has only a few percent of the world's oil reserves and consumes 22% of the world's oil reserves, their decision to invade a country that is rich in oil has to be part of their geopolitical strategy and not purely to bring democracy to a country that will be impossible to democratise."
As the film proves, oil may be an intrinsic part of our present and future, but why aren't more people talking about it?
From Guardian.co.uk Blogs
Friday, September 21, 2007
Who is Worse - Mbeki or Bush?
NVDL: It's a tough call. Bush pushed his country into a dumb war. Okay, probably his reasons were dumb, setting up a police station in Iraq to secure access to Iraqi oil was arguably not so dumb. Mbeki on the other hand is very soft on a national holocaust called AIDS. With over 5 million dead, I think it's no contest here, but I could be wrong. W. still has time to send a few more nuclear capable aircraft into US (and other) airpspace. Perhaps we shopuld hold off on answering this until we have the next South African President, who may well be the worst yet.
From The Guardian:
[Mbeki] behaves as if South Africa's Aids disaster is no such thing. It is as if another of his rivals for worst President, George Bush, were to pretend the Iraq war was a little local difficulty.
During Mbeki's first five-year term, he used to say, with the enthusiastic backing of his Health Minister, a doctor, that Aids was not a sexually transmitted disease and that the anti-retroviral drugs that have saved hundreds of thousands of lives around the world were poisonous. He also famously declared that he knew no one who has Aids.
Since then, Mbeki has been bludgeoned into grudgingly starting to have anti-retroviral drugs handed out. The government's official policy on Aids today is medically sound at last. But Mbeki continues to show an abject lack of leadership, indicating - as his firing of the Deputy Health Minister shows - that he is less than half-hearted in his commitment to the cause; that the great $64,000 question of South African politics - what the hell is going inside Mbeki's head on Aids? - remains unanswered. Because he is an otherwise eminently rational, intelligent man.
While Mbeki has battled with repression, the crisis has cried out for Diana-like theatrics. Mbeki should have gone out into the worst-affected areas and held the hands of Aids patients; he should have publicly celebrated the Lazarus-like return to life of people on the anti-retroviral programmes; above all, he should have gone out of his way to set people straight on Aids, to counter the ignorance and confusion he himself has sown, contributing immeasurably to the scale of the catastrophe.
Mandela, deep into his eighties, has done all of that and more. But out of Mbeki, not a peep. His tragically ludicrous Minister of Health continues to go about creating the impression that beetroot and garlic are as effective in countering the effects of the HIV virus as the anti-retroviral medication.
The one person in government who has had the courage implicitly to defy Mbeki both by pushing hard for the new government strategy on Aids - approved last March, when Tshabalala-Msimang was on sick leave, recovering from a liver transplant -and by showing active leadership on the matter was Madlala-Routledge. So much so that she has become a much respected figure in the global Aids community. As such, she was invited to attend an international conference in Madrid last June on the latest work in the search for an Aids vaccine.
I spoke to her last week in Cape Town, and she told me she accepted the invitation because of the opportunity it provided 'to make a strong case on behalf of the victims' to scientists and European parliamentarians who would be in attendance. She flew to Spain, but barely had she landed in Madrid than she received an order from Mbeki himself to fly straight back. Which she did, but this did not prevent Mbeki from firing her. The reason? That she had flown to Madrid without his permission.
Since then, the South African press has published an avalanche of reports on the alleged alcoholism and kleptomania of her former boss, Tshabalala-Msimang.
Under the front-page headline, 'Manto: a drunk and a thief', the top-selling Johannesburg Sunday Times claimed the Health Minister continued to booze after her transplant, and revealed that in the Seventies she was expelled from Botswana for stealing from patients at a hospital where she was a medical supervisor.
Beyond the office-holding ranks of the former heroes of the ANC's liberation struggle, the clamour has been insistent for the reinstatement of Madlala-Routledge and the firing of Tshabalala-Msimang. Mbeki's response, typical of the small-mindedness that defines him, has been to order the former Deputy Health Minister to repay the government for her trip to Madrid.
He seems oblivious to the callousness of the message he is sending in persisting with the buffoonish Tshabalala-Msimang, a drinking buddy of long-standing, in a ministerial post that Mandela would have considered the most critical in his government by far.
· John Carlin is writing a book on Mandela to be published by Penguin Press (US).
From The Guardian:
[Mbeki] behaves as if South Africa's Aids disaster is no such thing. It is as if another of his rivals for worst President, George Bush, were to pretend the Iraq war was a little local difficulty.
During Mbeki's first five-year term, he used to say, with the enthusiastic backing of his Health Minister, a doctor, that Aids was not a sexually transmitted disease and that the anti-retroviral drugs that have saved hundreds of thousands of lives around the world were poisonous. He also famously declared that he knew no one who has Aids.
Since then, Mbeki has been bludgeoned into grudgingly starting to have anti-retroviral drugs handed out. The government's official policy on Aids today is medically sound at last. But Mbeki continues to show an abject lack of leadership, indicating - as his firing of the Deputy Health Minister shows - that he is less than half-hearted in his commitment to the cause; that the great $64,000 question of South African politics - what the hell is going inside Mbeki's head on Aids? - remains unanswered. Because he is an otherwise eminently rational, intelligent man.
While Mbeki has battled with repression, the crisis has cried out for Diana-like theatrics. Mbeki should have gone out into the worst-affected areas and held the hands of Aids patients; he should have publicly celebrated the Lazarus-like return to life of people on the anti-retroviral programmes; above all, he should have gone out of his way to set people straight on Aids, to counter the ignorance and confusion he himself has sown, contributing immeasurably to the scale of the catastrophe.
Mandela, deep into his eighties, has done all of that and more. But out of Mbeki, not a peep. His tragically ludicrous Minister of Health continues to go about creating the impression that beetroot and garlic are as effective in countering the effects of the HIV virus as the anti-retroviral medication.
The one person in government who has had the courage implicitly to defy Mbeki both by pushing hard for the new government strategy on Aids - approved last March, when Tshabalala-Msimang was on sick leave, recovering from a liver transplant -and by showing active leadership on the matter was Madlala-Routledge. So much so that she has become a much respected figure in the global Aids community. As such, she was invited to attend an international conference in Madrid last June on the latest work in the search for an Aids vaccine.
I spoke to her last week in Cape Town, and she told me she accepted the invitation because of the opportunity it provided 'to make a strong case on behalf of the victims' to scientists and European parliamentarians who would be in attendance. She flew to Spain, but barely had she landed in Madrid than she received an order from Mbeki himself to fly straight back. Which she did, but this did not prevent Mbeki from firing her. The reason? That she had flown to Madrid without his permission.
Since then, the South African press has published an avalanche of reports on the alleged alcoholism and kleptomania of her former boss, Tshabalala-Msimang.
Under the front-page headline, 'Manto: a drunk and a thief', the top-selling Johannesburg Sunday Times claimed the Health Minister continued to booze after her transplant, and revealed that in the Seventies she was expelled from Botswana for stealing from patients at a hospital where she was a medical supervisor.
Beyond the office-holding ranks of the former heroes of the ANC's liberation struggle, the clamour has been insistent for the reinstatement of Madlala-Routledge and the firing of Tshabalala-Msimang. Mbeki's response, typical of the small-mindedness that defines him, has been to order the former Deputy Health Minister to repay the government for her trip to Madrid.
He seems oblivious to the callousness of the message he is sending in persisting with the buffoonish Tshabalala-Msimang, a drinking buddy of long-standing, in a ministerial post that Mandela would have considered the most critical in his government by far.
· John Carlin is writing a book on Mandela to be published by Penguin Press (US).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)