Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions

With everyone (well, almost everyone - I am one of the lonely skeptics) convinced that we have stepped back from the "edge of the abyss", the title of this article may be viewed as laughable. When you connect the dots, as I will in this article, you will at least stop laughing, and, maybe, realize that we still have a big problem.

We have a confluence of five factors that have the potential to create damage to banking not seen in 80 years, and that includes the Great Depression. We'll hit these factors one at a time.

SHOOT: I think the reason nothing sinks in is because we're all too distracted by the latest gadget, the newest movie, and that includes not only consumers, but everyone all the way to the top - policymakers, governments, bankers.
clipped from seekingalpha.com

First Factor: Banks Are Not Doing Enough Business

Commercial bank credit growth has dropped to 2%, according to Jesse's Cafe Americain (here). The recent history of credit growth is shown in the following graph.

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