Economist.com: ...the world food crisis of 2007-08 showed that food prices are not influenced solely, or even mainly, by cyclical factors. They soared in large part because of slow, irreversible trends: population growth; urbanisation; shifting appetites from grain to meat in developing countries. There is no sign that these trends are abating.
SHOOT: The last place anyone wants to look for the source of our problems is ourselves. But having to voluntaarily control world population is going to be very difficult. In the USA, 1 out of every 3 pregnancies, is to women under 20 years of age. And with 750 million born each year, it will take a lot to turn this tide of human locusts devouring resources. Swine flu may have an impact though.
All that seems fairly rational and hopeful. But this year’s changes have been more puzzling. Between December and mid-June, the food index rebounded by a third, even though this year’s total cereals crop is expected to be another bumper (2.2 billion tonnes, says the Food and Agriculture Organisation, second only to 2008/09, see chart left). Meanwhile, soyabean and sugar prices have risen by nearly half from trough to peak—see chart below—and the index of “non-food agriculturals” (plants such as cotton or rubber) also rose by a quarter between December and mid-June. Prices have been increasing at a time of plenty.
If this was happening during a boom, it might be understandable. But recession would normally dampen down price rises. So what explains the return of food-price inflation? And does it mean that the so-called world food crisis is returning?
Snakes in the grass
At the moment, the world’s population is 6.7 billion and 750m people are born each year. |
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