Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Kunstler: Feeling Good Are Ya?

...all the backward-looking crybaby complaints that "we were lied to" still does not answer the basic question: what should have been the appropriate response to the extreme injury of 9/11? A diplomatic protest? An investigation by the UN? The surreptitious assassination of Arab troublemakers all around the world? I don't think the "we were lied to" contingent has a credible answer to this question.

There's another hugely important realm of inquiry that the "we were lied to" folks have never addressed: who lied to us about the way we live in this country? About the amount of oil we consume in the service of all our comforts and conveniences? About our extreme car dependence and what is required in our relations with the rest of the world to sustain it. All these years, Frank Rich and all his whining colleagues at the New York Times barely acknowledged the domestic fiasco of the suburban sprawl economy that placed us in such jeopardy to begin with. Even now, with the airlines disintegrating and gasoline over $4 (diesel over $5) I haven't heard any of these crybabies even raise the issue of restoring the US railroad system. How many of these crybabies live suburban lives themselves, in places like Louden County, Virginia, or Westchester, or Long Island, or the San Fernando Valley? Who lied to us about that?

For my money, the "we were lied to" chorus only represents the obdurately self-righteous cluelessness in every band of the American political spectrum. We lied to ourselves. We continue to lie to ourselves every day. The US public barely understands the first thing about the energy predicament we're in, and what it means for how we live in this country -- or how we get along with the rest of the world -- and the news media tragically reflects that ignorance. We fantasize about being "energy independent" and still being able to drive to the mall three times a day to eat caesar salads grown on the other side of North America. Get this: we deserve what is exactly happening to us. We might as well keep on lying to ourselves to pretend that we are not descending into a dark time. After all, the true basis of American life these days is to feel good about yourself no matter what you do.

Monday, June 02, 2008

Why Blog?


Like David Bullard, I've come to the realisation that I can't afford to blog. My life is severely out of whack, not necessarily because of blogging, but blogging certainly hasn't helped. So I've done some thinking on the highway - not the information highway - the highway highway, and I'm pretty clear on a few changes I'd like to make.

This weekend quite a few people commented on the fact that I've lost weight and am looking good, and you know, that gives me a much greater kick than I get from blogging. I would much rather see my weight go down to 80kg than see my blogs hits break 100 000, or make the top 10 on some blog ranking. Honestly. I started blogging actually simply to record, share and inspire (myself and others) about my progress in triathlon, and specifically Ironman. Blogging has since served other functions, namely to promote my writing and photography, and to communicate some of my concerns regarding the conundrums our world faces. It is a place those who know me come to see what I've been doing, what's happening in South Africa and in my world, but to the extent that it's just been reflecting news, it's been squeezing out some of the original ethos.

Realistically, I'm not sure if I have managed to convert many people to care about what is happening and where we're headed - those who visit my blog regularly were converted long ago. And it's tiresome preaching to the converted. I would rather make this space about what we can do, who we can be, than endlessly addressing concerns to a world out there that's still not ready to listen (this may change when that changes.) An awesome blog that addresses Peak Oil issues, is here. I'm going to rededicate this blog to showcasing some of the writing and photography projects I'm busy with. Right now there are a few exciting ones, and some I can't talk about right now, but there are some big projects hanging in the balance, including TV, including some big names. So potentially very exciting.

N is for Nature. Not news. I've also grown tired critiquing the media, and want to now move away from that entirely. This blog was never started as a news and politics blog, and I've never wanted it to be that either. That doesn't mean I am gagging myself, it simply means I'm going to pay less attention to it. The news media as far as I'm concerned, is like the Joker, in Batman. It's witty, it's entertaining, sometimes fresh and interesting, sometimes it shows a bit of pazzazz, even muscle, but essentially we don't need to consume nearly as much as we are - it's a distraction from what we ought to be doing. It is also seldom what it was designed to be: a public service.

News now is entirely what the reader chooses to focus on. You can Google your way to the sort of news you want, irrespective of whether it reflects astute reporting or not. I discovered that even when I started reading the so-called best journalism, from the likes of the Guardian and Financial Times, the news didn't really give me anything to work with. Even the 'best' news, is still really a particular view from within a particular context. A lot of it is flawed, and patently unsophisticated. The majority of news doesn't offer any coherent insights, it simply tells us what is happening, and we hear the same thing repeated on TV, radio, online and in the newspaper. It's not very meaningful or useful. We never hear the answer to: why? We simply get fed what on and on and on.

This weekend for example, I didn't read either a Saturday paper or a Sunday paper, and I am beginning to feel that it's healthier to limit the amount of information - especially what is labelled 'news' - that we allow into our heads. How much is really relevant to our lives? And what do we learn from the stuff that is?

Also, I used to think that blogs can provide an important function to build networks and communities. Sure, they can. They seldom do, and when they do, it's seldom meaningful. That I predict will change, and quite soon. I hope so. I think I have met one person through my blog. We are far better served to get up from our computers and go to the gym, and work on our bodies, our health, our relationships with others, than to surf around 'cyberspace' any more than we really have to. Clicking a mouse pad does little to change the world, or our own circumstances.

What does this mean? Less blogging. I might skip two or three days in a week (hopefully more). I'm going to be focusing more of my time on being in the gym, and out on the bike. I weigh 83kg now and I want to get that number under 80kg. Blogging tends to eat into time I might otherwise be dedicating to sweating, to moving, to FUN! I will be doing a weekly column in the style of James Kunstler's Clusterfuck Chronicles every Monday, called The View From My Bicycle. It's not necessarily about cycling either. I also intend to dedicate at least one day a week to discussing either Nature, Virtue, Discipline or Logic. There will also be more personal material, but obviously not to the extent that it violates anyone's privacy (including my own).

My original idea was to ease down on blogging once I reached 100 000, but I'd like to moderate my effort from now on instead. For those who visit my blog regularly, I'd also like to encourage you to get out into the sunshine, move your body, and enjoy the gift of living. I saw an animal today with the lower half of his body paralysed, and really, facing the creep of death. We have much to be grateful for, and I don't believe the internet is the place to celebrate that.

The View From My Bicycle (Column from my Daily Planet, introduced 2008, updated Mondays)

The Bicycling Profession (this is something I originally wrote for Bicycling Magazine, and the editor said he fond it sort've a fable, sort've hard reporting and so needed to sniff at it some more).

Our lives have become fiercely competitive and fiercely co-operative, but bicycling helps us find balance and connection

Energy efficiency is fast-becoming a cliché not only in South Africa, but also in many other countries. High fuel, food and electricity prices impact on everyone. The bicycle presents a unique solution, but perhaps even more, teaches with maximum fluency the mindset of efficiency. Save your energy, weigh less, share in your efforts, work together, and by working together, everyone benefits.

Perhaps the most vital attribute a cyclist needs to have is – wait-for-it – slimness. At a time when energy costs especially are forcing companies and individuals to be as efficient as they can be, carrying unnecessary fat and burning unnecessary fuel is a big no-no. Slimness allows for efficiency and important, quick adaptation, flexibility and rapid response to a changing scenario. In car terms it’s a Yaris and a Hummer racing one another for the nearest petrol station in peak hour traffic. Being lightweight allows for easier movement, better overall health and a reduced risk of injury notwithstanding the effects of gravity and entropy.


Coherent, Cohesive Intelligence


But one of the biggest sins in cycling (beyond obesity) is being a hothead that sprints foolishly ahead of the bunch; wasting precious endowments of glucose and getting nowhere. In this sense, tact and intelligence are vital. Pure strength, technology on its own, lightness, all the ingredients on their own are not enough to guarantee a good ride. They must be integrated into a coherent system, a program (both in terms of training and how these sessions are employed towards effective racing performances).


All By Myself


Naturally of course there are riders who rebel against the herd instinct. They don’t want to conform, they want to rebel. Every rider feels this at some stage. There is a compulsion be an individual, to indulge in what one wants when one wants it. It’s the consumer-mindset. The heaviest rider in a bunch will shoot ahead of the pack on a downhill…why not allow himself to get ahead, and build momentum for the next uphill? A light rider might find the pace up the steepest section far too slow. Sooner or later those initial gains are countered by working alone against the wind. An alliance with other individuals sometimes (rarely) pays off. The place for individual effort is just before the finish line. So cycling involves the strategic use of a collective co-operative effort. In the working world and even at home, teamwork and co-operation will benefit both the individual and community.

Specialized

Our highly specialized vocations allow us to do one thing, while someone else does something else important, and so almost no time is needed to put food on the table – this is a modern co-operative innovation that took agrarian societies millennia to realize. Living in villages connected to other villages by roads is another trick unique to modern society that we take for granted, yet without the company of others the sukkel for food and basic necessities would dominate our days. In cycling, staying in the group has profound benefits. Ask anyone who has labored alone on the long road against the wind, having to deal with cramps, punctures and other mishaps all by himself.

Natural Instinct


To see the co-operation of cyclists in action is to see something beautiful. On the first loop of the OFM (on the Thaba Nchu road) colorful flotillas of synchronicity SSSSHHHHHHIISSHHH by one another on opposite sides of the highway. Each large group is essentially its own organism, a cyclopede of wheels and legs. The message is obvious: if consumers and surburbanites realize they are part of a larger organism, like cyclists in a peloton, the entire system becomes more functionally efficient.

Short Term Contracts (like Renting or Car Hire)

While even the everyday rider will experience fierce competitiveness of other riders, for the bulk of a race the imperative to co-operate is even fiercer. Riders will often book a place in a line and curse and spit, prod and push when their ‘spot’ is taken by someone else. Riders who have never seen each other before suddenly work together, talking to each other, shouting and swearing if co-operation isn’t adequately rendered. It’s essentially a short-term scenario of close co-operation for an anonymous crowd of individuals. All they have in common is a common destination and whirring wheels between their hamstrings. But once again the benefits in terms of energy saving are real.

We All Sing Together


Perhaps cycling’s greatest lesson is that it instills a very real sense of community amongst its members. The rider needs to depend and be very aware of those around him or her, and must also realize others are depending on there being a co-operative effort too. If a surbanite builds high walls and instills the best alarm system, but a neighbor does not, the surbanite is just as vulnerable as the neighbor. To apply a cyclist’s co-operative strategy to this case: a neighborhood watch paid for by the community it protects benefits everyone. The wealthy helping out the poor benefit the entire community. Cycling uniquely places the teenager, the strong 20-something, and the old Oom in the same group, and allows them the opportunity to challenge, co-operate and compete.

Gearing and Leverage

Gearing and leveraging on a bicycle is something like compound interest. Over a period of time, the effects (and possible benefits) are significant. Cycling is one of the most technically complex sports. There are many factors to consider besides how to function in a rapidly changing peloton. There is aerodynamics, engineering (position and angle of saddle relative to the pedals), work rate (cadence) and also gearing. Gearing also has to do with efficiency, but when gearing is used more specifically to enhance leverage, well, then efficiency is no longer the priority, power is. Someone said: “Give me a long enough stick and I can move the world.” Leveraging gears and muscles – which implies an intimate understanding of oneself and one’s machine – will mean the difference between winning the sprint, or staying in touch with a group of stronger riders, as opposed to the worst case: being dropped. The same concept can be applied to leveraging one’s savings into investments, including into property. It may seem like a gray area, an insignificant cloud of subtlety, but small refinements here have powerful long term effects.

All or Nothing Competition

Cycling is not just about “Good morning Sport, after you.” It happens to be also fiercely competitive. The competitive nature of cycling is often under-estimated. The ongoing doping scandals at the Tour de France demonstrate to what extent the Professionals are reluctant to give up even an illegal advantage. But even amateurs risk life and limb simply to hang on to a bunch, even if it means finishing a race nowhere near the podium. In a Carnival City race an older rider was so close to my wheel that he fell when I moved to a better slipstreaming position. Just before this I’d observed: “Why is everyone so quiet; why is everyone so serious.” Everyone was concentrating hard at 65km in the B bunch. Older riders were doing their best to hang with the stronger guys, but a constant erosion was taking place. The will to remain in contention, even if that simply meant staying with the bunch, is powerful. The Argus is filled with thousands of average riders compelled to be as competitive as they can be on one day in March.

Information Overload

More than any other sport, the information from a heart rate monitor, cadence meter and speedometer on a bicycle can be overwhelming. There are Watts to consider, average speed, average heart rate, cadence, and the powerful impacts of wind and altitude. All athletes have to be savvy in terms of technological innovations. Which light, aerodynamic materials? Which nutrients and when? Devices that accurately record progress. Efficiencies can be fine-tuned by measuring and responding to changes in performance. A good rider knows which levels of exertion to apply in training and racing.

Pyschology

Bicycling inculcates a valuable sense of balance in the individual, which brings us back to the bicycling mindset.

The basics of cycling involve ups and downs, inevitably punctures and breakdowns – and how to get over these with minimum strain and maximum enjoyment. How to fly without falling? Isn’t this what life is all about? Cycling well means balancing a host of important psychological skills: anticipation, using and conserving momentum, executing strategy and most important – developing a thriving economy, whatever the energy constraints may be.

While Lance may have inspired millions to ride their bikes, it’s also true that cycling’s time has come. In the same way that the world has become smaller and flatter thanks to the internet and cheap air tickets, the world has never been more intricate or fast paced. The only way to stay in touch with these changes is on your bicycle.

The Road to Verkeerdevlei (PHOTOGRAPHY)


I've done the JHB to BFN commute in 3h15, and that included limping through the last 60km at around 100km behind a traffic jam of trucks. Since few people are more aware than I am about the Peak Oil problem, I determined to drive slower on Saturday - with a few to saving fuel. Think about it. If you drive from A-B, the faster you go, the more fuel you consume extra over what it would have taken to get there anyway. Some experts have advised an international speed limit of 90km/h.

When I got to the last tollgate at Verkeerdevlei I thought I'd skip it and head off to Brandfort. Immediately the road turned to gravel, and the 20km stretch through muddy ditches and dirt dongas sucked up a lot of time. But it was also a piece of road I had never been on before, and I found the ordinary and otherwise unseen Free State scenery quite bewitching. I stopped for a few photos of sunflowers that were desiccated and seemingly fossilised against the Free State's ageless blue sky. In the end I did the trip in about 4h45.

On the way back - leaving at around 6pm - I was less altruistic. I ended up cruising at 140km/h most of the way, and in the last 20km a speed camera lense singed my number plate into memory as my car's silver body sizzle by at 150km/h. I'm guessing that's a R500 fine.
It occurred to me that a 90km/h speed limit is a daydream. Even with higher fuel prices, people aren't really feeling it enough to change their driving habits. But we're getting there. In large landmass countries (the US, Oz and here), fuel is still pretty cheap. But a few years from now a drive to Bloem will be a major undertaking. It will be what flying used to be like, once upon a time. And flying, by the by, will be out, unless you're one of the president's men, or Nicky Oppenheimer.

Wouldn't it be nice if, in order to save fuel, they began NO DRIVE ZONES. So perhaps you may only drive from JHB to Kroonstad, and then from there you have to bicycle the rest of the way. What fun - entire highway sections devoted to cycling. Or NO DRIVE WEEKENDS - but cyclists are free to use the carriageways. Then, if you wanted to visit someone in Bloem and they wanted to visit you, you could meet halfway in Kroonstad. Now I know it sounds insane, but 200km on a bike is manageable if you have the whole day. You do 100km in the morning, 70 in the afternoon, and then 30km warm down. And let's face it, the road from JHB to BFN is flat as a pancake.

If prices break through the roof it might actually be quite fun...of course not including the poor out there whose survival is at stake. On the drive back I noticed with alarm the number of shacks that are literally an arm and leg away from the edge of the N1, and there is no fence. We have a long way to go before we become this daydream society singing 'The Hills Are Alive With The Sound Of Music', as we happily peddle our bicycles over free and thriving farmland. But it's fairytale worth keeping in the back of our minds I think.

Saturday, May 31, 2008

The Road Ahead (COMIC ART)


This is the road to Arkham Asylum.

Random Art (PHOTOGRAPHY)



Why Interest Rates Must Go Up

It adds fodder to the argument that higher interest rates are having no effect on the initial drivers of inflation: rising international food and fuel prices.

NVDL: Actually, high interest rates will start to have an effect, even indirectly, on food and fuel prices. The cost of credit or of borrowing, when it goes up enough, begins to impact negatively on consumption, which impacts negatively on the equilibrium price level. People operating out of their personal circumstances will have a lot to protest about, but the reality is that interest rates must go up. Consumption/demand, needs to be reined in. I don't like it, you don't like it, but it's the only way to get people to change their habits as it pertains to consumption.

Why oil costs over $120 per barrel

Oil is still cheap



At $2 per liter bottled spring water costs $318 per barrel.

Oil is still very cheap. Bottled spring water at $2 per litre works out at $318 per barrel. Oil is fundamental to our lives for transportation and a myriad products ranging from plastic to pesticides. Unlike spring water, oil is finite and costs significantly more to find and produce. The price of oil will continue to rise until the world as a whole decides it can do with less or until meaningful volumes of energy substitution take root.

Secondary factors and excuses

There are a range of secondary factors impacting the day to day fluctuations in oil price such as:

  • Speculation
  • Political unrest in producing countries
  • The depreciation of the $US
  • Prime exploration acreage that is off limits to OECD corporations

Speculation

Financial speculation in oil futures is being offered increasingly as the reason for high oil prices. True, speculation is rife. However, the futures market is a zero sum game. For every long position there is a short position and the price is ultimately struck by the individual who takes delivery of the oil - which is then refined and purchased by a consumer. For so long as consumers keep demanding oil at ever higher prices, the price will continue to rise.

The only way speculation could impact the oil price is under accumulation. Inventories of crude oil and refined products have been falling for a year (see figures 14 to 17).

Political unrest

True, political unrest in exporting countries such as Iraq and Nigeria means that less oil is being produced. But this situation has prevailed for many years now and is likely to get worse as energy poverty begins to bite.

The depreciation of the $US

True, the depreciation of the US$ has contributed to the rise in oil prices. But the oil price has risen in € too.



From Countdown to €100 oil by Jerome a Paris.

Off limits exploration

True, there are vast tracts of the USA that are under-explored in the ANWR and off the east and west coasts where the US has placed a high price on protecting their own environment. But it is not true that the Middle East and Russia are under-explored and that greater access to these areas by OECD companies would transform the current situation.

In summary these secondary factors touted by the MSM, politicians and oil companies are nothing more than an excuse and a distraction from the core problem which is demand growth running ahead of supply growth for over three years now. If the USA, Russia or Saudi Arabia could turn on the taps and produce an additional 3 mmbpd, the oil price would fall tomorrow. But they can't and the only way the oil price will come down is by reduced demand brought about by pricing poor people out of the energy market and by deepening recession.

Conclusion

We are now in the early stages of a full blown energy crisis that was predictable if not wholly avoidable. Politicians are awaking to the crisis now that escalating energy costs make its existence plain to see. It is highly unlikely that politicians will now grasp the gravity of the situation that the OECD and rest of the world faces and the responses will likely be ineffectual and too little too late.

The principal reason for current high oil price is the proximity of a peak in global oil production. Politicians must understand this and then grasp that natural gas and coal supplies will follow oil down by mid century. Reducing taxes on energy consumption right now is the wrong thing to do. Taxation structure needs to be adjusted to oblige energy producing companies to re-invest wind fall profits in alternative energy sources on a truly massive scale.

Energy efficiency should be the guiding beacon of all policy decisions and this must apply equally to energy production and energy consumption.

Posted by Euan Mearns

More
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Friday, May 30, 2008

The Joke's On You (COMIC ART)

Dodgy Dodge Marketing, and Your car is shedding value by the minute


Tim Shriver, the chairman of Special Olympics: “So Dodge wants to sell you a car you don’t really want to buy, that is not fuel-efficient, will further damage our environment, and will further subsidize oil states, some of which are on the other side of the wars we’re currently fighting. ... The planet be damned, the troops be forgotten, the economy be ignored: buy a Dodge.”

Chrysler are offering a credit line for fuel that doesn't change for 3 years, in order to move their products into the market, allowing customers to pretend that fuel prices aren't a factor for a little bit longer.

Your car is shedding value by the minute:
A car dealer in the states said he deducts $200 each day from the trade-in price for every $1-a-barrel increase in the OPEC price of crude oil. When you see the rows and rows of unsold S.U.V.’s parked in his lot, you'll understood why.

Rice Spin

"I am not going to comment on a book that I haven't read," she said, referring to McClellan's scathing memoir, "but what I will say is that the concern about weapons of mass destruction in Saddam Hussein's Iraq was the fundamental reason."

"It was not the United States of America alone that believed that he had weapons of mass destruction that he was hiding," Rice said, dismissing suggestions that the administration knew the intelligence was incorrect.

"The story is there for everyone to see, you can't now transplant yourself into the present and say we should have know what we in fact did not know in 2001 and 2002," she said. "The record on weapons of mass destruction was one that appeared to be very clear."

Those who were skeptical should have spoken up at the time and argued against U.N. sanctions such as the oil-for-food program, she said.

"The threat from Saddam Hussein was well understood," Rice said. "You can agree or disagree about the decision to liberate Iraq in 2003, but I would really ask that if you ... believe he was not a threat to the international community, then why in the world were you allowing the Iraqi people to suffer under the terms of oil-for-food."

The heart of the McClellan book concerns Bush's decision to go to war in Iraq, a determination McClellan says the president had made by early 2002 — at least a full year before the invasion — if not even earlier.

"He signed off on a strategy for selling the war that was less than candid and honest," McClellan writes in "What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington's Culture of Deception."

During the "political propaganda campaign to sell the war to the American people," Bush and his team tried to make the "WMD threat and the Iraqi connection to terrorism appear just a little more certain, a little less questionable than they were." Something else was downplayed as well, McClellan says: any discussion of "the possible unpleasant consequences of war — casualties, economic effects, geopolitical risks, diplomatic repercussions."

NVDL: Nothing new there, except that Rice and her cohorts are still doing that. She uses the words 'weapons of mass destruction' wherever she can. Anyway, at least we don't have to worry about the USA spinning their way into another war, with, say Iran. I mean, there are no weapons of mass destruction there, in Iran, are there? I'm just concerned when Ms. Rice wakes up and realises a country that hates the USA and has proved they have nukes - North Korea - already exists. When she does I think we might well hear a speech like this from her:
I think because of the weapons of mass destruction there we need to use our very underutilised weapons of mass destruction because if we don't use our weapons of mass destruction first someone else will use their weapons of mass destruction first, and we can't have anyone usinbg weapons of mass destruction against us. Did I mention that we are very concerned that some nations might have weapons of mass destruction and we reserve to make sure that they don't have weapons of mass destruction, even if it means using our weapons of mass destruction...

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Blogging is like Marriage, and why I still have a bone to pick with Lynne Slettevold


Marriage is a public institution. You and your beloved make your feelings known publicly. Part of the reason is so the public knows what you've decided to be, and that knowing this, they can respect you and your beloved's decision. Naturally, while these may be the overt intentions, it is expecting an awful lot from both society and one's beloved to behave honorably ad infinitum, forsaking all others until death us do part, forever and ever amen. What that means is can we rely on our partners (blogs) to be faithful to us, and can we rely on the public not to interfere into what ought to be certain private places in our public enterprises that are, shall we say, relatively off-limits (eve if just off the beaten track), or else - and worse, ought we to expect the public and the media to commit adultery with our beloved? Of course not.

No reasonable and rational public or public entity would dare to operate in a way to fly in the face of public decency. Or...else...? Interestingly, there is even a
Divorce Act which rightly protects the interests of both parties (including from one another) but also from media intrusion. Note this is post marriage. Sunday Times went to court recently to challenge this law, citing a right to publish and the public’s to receive information[on parties going through a divorce]. Whether the Sunday Times won their challenge, I'm not sure. After all, even Billy Gundelfinger has stated:

“For me, the mechanism for protecting the identity of the parties should be maintained, if only to serve the interests of children,” said Gundelfinger. “In my experience it is not at all rare that children are harmed in divorce actions, and would suffer irreparable harm if their identities were made known.”

Billy Gundelfinger said he feared a return to the practice of some newspapers in the ’70s – before the introduction of the law — in which “whole pages” were devoted to a round-up of divorce cases, including “all the gory details”.

Here is an interesting case where the media, pleading for the law to keep step with the 'changing values of society' is asking for the right to make public confidential and sensitive information pertaining to private family information in particularly trying circumstances. To test whether this is something that should be allowed, simply ask: if you were getting divorced, would you like the newspapers to cover it, including what your partner thinks and feels about you? But everyone knows how protective and controlling the media is of bloggers reporting on their own/internal and thus sensitive corporate information. Isn't this a double standard? Once again, in terms of the law, and how it applies to blogs and all the sensitivities involved, there ought to be a simple application and observance of logic, common law common sense, and ordinary manners.

What I am saying essentially is that while blogs operate in the public domain, so do marriages, and in an obvious and ordinary sense, ordinary rules of decency apply. So, for example, if a blogger makes a mistake at work (or even if he/she doesn't), or if a blogger aims to make a case against an aggrieving party, to what extent is handpicked content from the complainants blog relevant in the aggrieved party's rebuttal? To what extent is the public's right to what happens in a marriage/divorce relevant to ordinary work/civil processes, even if it is ostenibly a relationship concluded in the publid domain? In fact personal details do not belong to one's colleagues, one's boss...except as a useful means to smear and besmirch? Is that where the exception is allowed? The answer is, blogs are probably not very relevant until they say something that is of and in itself relevant.

But recent history has shown that those outsiders (managers/bosses, people in positions of authority) who want to use blogs against their blogging owners have been allowed free reign to do so. This is likely to change, as ordinary common laws come to into play, and as these situations arise more and more frequently. Because what seems to some to be very fuzzy math is actually about plain old good and decent manners at the end of the day.

So am I wrong to mention someone who has displayed bad manners? It depends how honestly/maliciously I make that representation. What are my underlying intentions. And I think the impact of the communication has to be balanced against the injury experienced. Lynne Slettevold is an example, and I'd like to re-address that experience here, because it's relevant.

Imagine you are climbing a mountain. A high mountain, not just any mountain. You and your guide agree that when you get to the top, your guide will take a photo of you, to prove you have climbed the mountain. You have many important reasons for climbing the mountain, but part of the reason to do it is to have testimony, evidence, of your achievement. Perhaps you need to prove to the world you reached the top in order that other climbers who wish to do the same will pay for your services. Except when you come back down the mountain, your guide, inexplicably refuses to hand over the photographic evidence. Thus to a large extent, the great costs, the various resources employed in this very laborious expedition, all the ambitions behind the project, are to a large extent effectively laid to waste.

The mountain in this analogy is code for a Photo Exhibition I held. It's a case of unrepentant and unacceptable bad manners. But that's all it is. Tomorrow there's a post about fitness, the next day about good food, the next about insomnia. Life goes on, and of course if Lynne felt so terrible about whatever she did, she could call me up at any time and say, here's what we agreed. Then I would naturally feel - wow, now what I said in the past no longer applies. Except that that hasn't happened, and so what I said does apply.: Someone didn't do something they were supposed to do. Boo hoo. End of story. But if I were to expand on that and start to violate her right to privacy (where she lives, where she works, placing photos of her on the net, describing my skewed insights into her private light) then suddenly the ultimate perpetrator of bad manners is me. And I think that is easy to see.

I think as a blogger one also has to walk the fine line between addressing things and venting. I once vented over a cyclist, B, and although I remain really pissed off about what happened that day (during a 180km cycle race), I didn't realise she would read the vent herself. But then I didn't write it necessarily for anyone to read. In a sense it was like a diary entry, because for goodness sake, if 50% of your readers are from the UK, and the USA, and your South African visitors are 50% random, and those who aren't aren't interested in cycling, then it's not even going to be boo hoo to them. But if no one is going to read this super-personal stuff, why blog it? Why indeed. So in that particular case I don't think there was much point. All I achieved was to actually worsen the situation, which was not my intention, although I don't feel like I had any malicious intent other than to express my misery and misfortune in a bicycle race. The end certainly didn't justify the means, but having clearly expressed my pain and heartache, I also learned subsequently the extent of her lack of remorse. Eeek. Stop writing about this!

Anyone can apply the basic model and moral of fairness and manners to the internet (and to the media) in order to test whether our use of information is warranted, in the public interest - truly - or simply bad manners to whatever end.

Blogs are going to be up for grabs and up for scrutiny a lot more going into the future, and probably will initially lose 'challenges' against them. But blogs and bloggers are becoming more powerful every day, and even if sanity does not prevail, perhaps the cyber-lynching sensibilities of the blogging masses will.


Oil Prices Are Dropping - Phew, we survived that...let's go back to normal now

So oil prices hit a record $135 a week ago, then they dropped back down to $127. No big deal. It went up a lot, but the markets just got excited.

Umm...just to be clear, we're talking about some topsy turvy behaviour that is still north of $120, and for that matter, $110. If this rollercoaster ride says anything, it is that the markets are now VERY volatile. By the way, just before they went down to $127, they went back up to $133 (from $130). This means there is a lot of tension pushing and pulling at that price.

Oil prices fall below $127 a barrel


A friend was also saying that since 65% of the UK oil price is comprised from taxes, the actual price of oil isn't even expensive. Exactly. Oil is still very very cheap. The prices producers are paid is still very little. So, you say, why can't we just remove these government taxes? 2 reasons:
1) because that would increase demand, which is exactly what we don't want to do.
2) because these fuel taxes are a primary source of income for government. Without them, most departsments would be crippled. What is happening in any event is while those taxes remain in place, economies are increasingly tipping towards recession as disposable incomes increasingly fail to achieve parity with these higher price levels. Thus higher fuel prices also begin to erode the income of entire governments.

Model For the 21st Century Newsroom (GRAPHIC)

Spend $10 Today, Be Out $100K Tomorrow

Little amounts can make a large difference to your finances.

As gasoline and food prices continue to rise, the squeeze to make family budgets balance each month becomes more of a struggle. After the big savings have been found and taken, smaller savings have to be found to make ends meet.

This can be frustrating as it can feel like everyone is being nickled and dimed to death. That's why it's important to realize how these small amounts can make a huge difference in your overall financial health.

You've likely heard about the little ways to save money a million times. Money-saving advice includes standards like packing your lunch instead of buying it at work, skipping the Starbucks and making your coffee at home and watching videos at home instead of going out to the movies. While you may have grown tired of hearing them, they are still as true as ever and even more important when the economy is struggling.

More from TheStreet.com:

Use Your Pantry to Pinch Pennies

Minimum Payments Cause Maximum Financial Pain

Ten Strategies to Fight Bank Fees

Saving small amounts of money is good advice for everyone, it's not as essential for people that are currently living well below their means. If you spend $5 on a cup of coffee each day, but you're still able to put away five times that amount toward your savings, that coffee splurge isn't going to hurt as much as for someone who isn't saving anything. For those that are barely making ends meet, spending small amounts of money can be the difference between deep debt and a nice retirement account.

When you are faced with a budget that isn't balancing, you have two main choices: earn more money or cut more expenses. Unfortunately, many turn to a third alternative. When they can't seem to make their budget balance, they decide that it's acceptable to place the difference onto a credit card. Even though the monthly shortfall in the budget is small, placing it onto credit cards is one of the worst financial moves that a person can make. The result will be a downward cycle that will not only keep you in debt, but also create a tremendous amount of stress.

There is often a false assumption that saving $10 and spending $10, although opposite, are relatively the same. For example, if a person saves $10 a day, after a month their account will have $300 while if a person spends $10 a day, that will result in a debt of $300. While on the surface this makes perfect sense, the problem lies in that these numbers fail to take into account the interest that can be gained or charged on this money. It is this failure to understand the concept of compound interest and the dramatic effect it can have that greatly changes these results.

It's important to understand that it takes very little to start sinking into debt. For most people, spending $10 a day would not be considered extravagant spending by any means, but $10 can result in tens of thousands of dollar of debt. It's simple to see when you compare the results of what happens when one person saves $10 a day while the other spends $10 a day that he doesn't have.

If a person were to save $300 a month (approx. $10 a day) and invest it to get a 5% yearly return, that person would have $20,402 in the bank after five years. On the other hand, if a person ends up spending $300 a month more than he has and puts it onto a credit card that he doesn't pay off over the same 5 year period, that person will owe $36,259, assuming a 26% credit card interest rate. After five years, the difference between saving $10 and spending $10 each day results in a $56,661 gap in net worth between the two.

Add another five years to the same patterns, and the results are even more dramatic. After 10 years, the person who saved $10 a day would have $46,585 in the bank, whereas the person who spent the $10 he didn't have would be $167,470 in debt, resulting in a net worth difference of over $210,000.

Of course, there are many other factors that could alter these calculations. The interest you can earn and what your credit card interest rates are will vary from this example. There is a minimum amount that the person would need to pay on a credit card each month. If debt to this extent began to occur, the person would have their credit cut off long before this amount accumulated and would likely need to declare bankruptcy. The point is that over time, small amounts added to debt can result in far more debt than most people realize.

Once you learn that saving a small amount and overspending a small amount aren't simple opposites, you understand the importance of having a budget and strictly sticking with it. If you are able to fight through the hard times and keep your budget balanced, then you set yourself to reap great financial rewards when the economy finally turns around.

by Jeffrey Strain

NVDL: Credit cards are just plain evil. But whether the economy will 'finally' turn around...I'm afraid we are not headed in that direction.

Seven habits of obsessively connected people

1. Obsessive compulsive blogging disorder: Marked by intrusive thoughts and repeated posting, the syndrome typically involves constant, irrational worrying about comments on the latest blog posts and feelings that something bad will happen if he or she does not post at least 20 times a day. It is related to obsessive searching disorder, whose telltale signs include excessive use of Microsoft and Yahoo search engines.

2. Social network schizophrenia: Disturbed moods, thoughts and behavior that make it difficult for the patient to distinguish fact from Facebook. Hallucinations include friends throwing sheep at them. People with social network schizophrenia believe their hallucinations are real and the rest of the world is nuts, making it difficult to communicate with them or even attempt to help without using the Superpoke feature on Facebook.

3. Digital depression: Dark moods, feelings of loss or lower self-esteem resulting from being dissed by conference-roving Twitter mobs, getting unfriended, unlinked or unfollowed on your favorite social network or microblogging platform -- or getting zero comments on your blog posts.

4.FriendFeed phobia: Characterized by a deep-seated fear that if you use FriendFeed, you will find out you actually have no friends.

5. Twitterer's Syndrome: Related to Tourette's syndrome, an involuntary, sudden, rapid, recurrent 140-character typing tic. To wit: "I'm not sure what's noisier. Twitter or my baby who is teething. I think the baby wins, but not by much," Scoble says.

6. Binge surfing disorder: Consuming more page views in a single sitting than most average people could in a two-week period. Characterized by abnormal craving for updates from Valleywag and VentureBeat. Side effects can be severe. Treatment varies. Consult your shrink.

7. Post-traumatic inbox disorder: Feelings of helplessness... and loss of control triggered by overwhelming influx of e-mails, resulting in an inability to sleep, work or enjoy life. It is related to post-traumatic update disorder: the failure to update your status on Facebook and other services, which leads to generalized anxiety.


Cultural schizophrenia

The modern condition born of a disconnection between attitudes and behaviors, between the world as it is presented and the world as we intuit it to be. Cultural schizophrenia occurs whenever society begins to reinvent its vision of how it will conduct affairs in the future.

NVDL: In other words, it is underway.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Shoe Shine, Car Shine and Sex in the City

So after gym I am so deur die blare (through the leaves) that in the parking lot basement at work, in the process of trying to create the leaning tower of my dairy, access cards and my lunch, I manage to throw out a small container with my lunch over the passenger seat...and beyond. It basically looks like someone just hurled mince, and mushrooms, and pieces of pepper and onion over my handbrake, gear shift and inside those little tracks that the chairs run on. I try to pick up grubs of meat, but the damage is done. Small curls of steam emerge out of both ears. When I get back my car is gonna smell like beef stew. STOOOPID.

So in my lunch break I went to a valet service at a great garage in Lower Houghton, and had the thing completely cleaned. Even played a bit of golf on a small green nearby. While I was standing there some kid offered to shine my shoes. Why not?

After work I was stuck in a gargantuan ruby traffic jam - I think we left at about 5:45pm and got there at around 7pm. Lots of people, famous names (don't ask me to mention any, I just heard a few gasps), some nice free drinks and goodies. The Sex and the City Premiere was well attended. The movie itself was...let's see...funny, heartwarming, witty and sexy. It's a chick flick, but there's enough porn and hot chicks to make it worthwhile for the guys. Umm...scratch that. It's a chick flick that feel like 4 episodes crammed into one. It's a good movie, good story, but it would have been great if they could have sliced one episode's worth out. I think we went in at 8pm and came out at 11pm. We didn't even stay for dessert. Sarah jessica reminds me so much of my sister.

Classic line, Carrie: I need to get out of this Mexicoma. There's more witty dialogue, I'm just to sleepy to remember any of it clearly. But I like the idea of getting married in a court building, something modest and un-traditional. Oops. I think I've spoiled it for you now. But then again, who in their right mind gets married in the first place? I guess...people who really love each other, that's who.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

FT.com: Web 2.0 fails to produce cash

Many members of the Web 2.0 generation of internet companies have so far produced little in the way of revenue, despite bringing about some significant changes in online behaviour, according to some of the entrepreneurs and financiers behind the movement.

The shortage of revenue among social networks, blogs and other “social media” sites that put user-generated content and communications at their core has persisted despite more than four years of experimentation aimed at turning such sites into money-makers. Together with the US economic downturn and a shortage of initial public offerings, the failure has damped the mood in internet start-up circles.

“There is going to be a shake-out here in the next year or two” as many Web 2.0 companies disappear, said Roger Lee, a partner at Battery Ventures.

“These are challenging macro-economic conditions,” said Shawn Hardin, chief executive of Flock, a browser maker that raised $15m in venture capital last week.

Yet that has not stopped a continuing round of venture capital fundraising and acquisition activity at high valuations as investors and corporate acquirers hunt for businesses capable of rising above a crowded field.

“If you look at some of the valuations, you wonder what fantasy of revenues they’re based on,” said Mitchell Kertzman, a partner at Silicon Valley venture capital firm Hummer Winblad.

In one sign of the continued hopes for start-ups that have yet to alight on a solid business model, several financiers expressed support for the private fundraising being undertaken by Twitter, one of Silicon Valley’s most talked-about companies. The “micro-blogging” service, whose users post messages no more than 40 characters long, has yet to find a way to make money, but its early adoption by a group of enthusiastic users is seen as a sign that it will eventually be successful.

Other recent venture capital deals have included fundraisings that have put valuations of about $500m each on Slide, a maker of “widgets”, small applications that are carried on social networks, and Ning, a social networking platform founded by Marc Andreessen, a co-founder of browser maker Netscape.

Despite the slow start to money-making by Web 2.0 companies, the trend towards more social online behaviour that it embodies is widely claimed by insiders to be of lasting significance.
By Richard Waters and Chris Nuttall in San Francisco.
From here.

NVDL: I been sayin' it. I have a question though. As we enter this period of 'post-oil' contraction, will the internet play a role in maintaining our sense of community? I hope so, but I fear no. Because let's be honest - has the internet really served as a connector, has it allowed us to meet new people, to socialise more than we otherwise would have? I'm not sure I know of anyone who can say that that is the case.

After all, even the internet requires energy to run, and if there's one thing we can anticipate more and more it is the disruption of energy supplies. Which begs the question: Does the internet have a future? Once again, it seems to be predicated on the future of our electricity networks, and the levels of stability of those communities tasked with maintaining this infrastructure. Kunstler predicts that the grid will go off. In time, it may be degraded to such an extent that we won't really have the expertise on hand to keep it running. At this point it's anybody's guess.

"Oh my God, the house is gone!" (TWISTER VIDEO)






NVDL: "Are you not entertained? Are you NOT entertained? Isn't that why you're here?"