Sunday, September 05, 2010

There is only one way back to full recovery: through more widely shared prosperity

From The New York Times:

THE Great Depression and its aftermath demonstrate that there is only one way back to full recovery: through more widely shared prosperity. In the 1930s, the American economy was completely restructured. New Deal measures — Social Security, a 40-hour work week with time-and-a-half overtime, unemployment insurance, the right to form unions and bargain collectively, the minimum wage — leveled the playing field.
In the decades after World War II, legislation like the G.I. Bill, a vast expansion of public higher education and civil rights and voting rights laws further reduced economic inequality. Much of this was paid for with a 70 percent to 90 percent marginal income tax on the highest incomes. And as America’s middle class shared more of the economy’s gains, it was able to buy more of the goods and services the economy could provide. The result: rapid growth and more jobs.
By contrast, little has been done since 2008 to widen the circle of prosperity. Health-care reform is an important step forward but it’s not nearly enough.
What else could be done to raise wages and thereby spur the economy? We might consider, for example, extending the earned income tax credit all the way up through the middle class, and paying for it with a tax on carbon. Or exempting the first $20,000 of income from payroll taxes and paying for it with a payroll tax on incomes over $250,000.
In the longer term, Americans must be better prepared to succeed in the global, high-tech economy. Early childhood education should be more widely available, paid for by a small 0.5 percent fee on all financial transactions. Public universities should be free; in return, graduates would then be required to pay back 10 percent of their first 10 years of full-time income. 

SHOOT: The writer has a point, prosperity must be shared in order for it to be more sustainable.  But there also needs to be a rethinking, a reworking of economics, and even capitalism.  According to the laws of the universe, energy is required to make a system work.  If the underlying energy systems aren't there, the system contracts.  As we know, the resources on our planet are infinite in spite of the apparently infinite needs and wants of consumers.  So I think another option is to re-configure the way we live, away from consumption, away from unbridled capitalism, to a more socialist [but not communist model], which is based on communities working together, co-operatively producing and co-owning the fruits of their production, along with multi-disciplinary living arrangements which don't require commuting [in other words, walkable communities]. In short, a less individualistic approach. Further, all communities need to start plugging into or resurrecting their organic systems.  That means streams must be rejuvenated, patches of land planted and made productive, pollution contained etc.
These tough choices can be exercised now, or later, when we have even fewer choices, and fewer resources.

Rating the Boks

Springbok Player Ratings: v Wallabies

Gurthro SteenkampSARugby.com’s Springbok player ratings for the Tri-Nations Test against the Wallabies in Bloemfontein on Saturday.
Springbok Player Ratings:
15: Frans Steyn – 5
Bar a few early attacking grubbers by the Wallabies Steyn had little to do at the back and didn’t join the line enough to make the impact required from a quality fullback.
14: JP Pietersen – 5
Another quiet outing by Pietersen who needs to go looking for work more. Chased well and won a couple of high balls back.
13: Jaque Fourie – 7
Both Fourie and De Villiers were guilty of allowing their direct opponents too much space early on but with ball in hand they were both impressive. Fourie made a number of long runs, most memorably the break from the restart in the 18th minute.
12: Jean de Villiers – 7
Very strong with ball in hand as he proved by beating three would-be defenders to power over for a brilliant try.
11: Bryan Habana – 3
Peter de Villiers’ decision to stick with a clearly out-of-form Habana once again cost the Boks dearly. The under-fire winger conceded three points in the opening minute for holding on, slipped on defence, which saw Kurtley Beale run in for a try, and missed James O’Connor which resulted in Wallaby captain Rocky Elsom scoring the visitors’ bonus point try.
10: Morne Steyn – 7.5
Admittedly, Steyn didn’t get his backline away like a Quade Cooper or Dan Carter but he played his kicking-based game superbly and his big match temperament came to the fore once again when he slotted two crucial penalties at the death in another faultless goal-kicking masterclass.

For the rest go here.

SHOOT: The problem is that no one has been playing consistently really well, with the exception of Morne Steyn and Guthro Steenkamp.  Where are the game makers?  I think the lack of confidence of the coaches, and in the coaches, is filtering through to the team.  It must.  This is why a meritocracy is so important.

Saturday, September 04, 2010

What does Zuma stand for?

Seeking to buy off allies and cracking down on dissent: bad signs in South Africa

WHEN he became president of South Africa just over a year ago, Jacob Zuma promised to quench South Africans’ thirst for renewal. After the aloof and idiosyncratic Thabo Mbeki, here was a big-hearted, charismatic “man of the people” who would unite a fractious country and help it make itself felt in the world. Sure enough, Mr Zuma was at his beguiling best during the football World Cup, a festival that passed off even better than most had dared hope.
Yet even at the time of his election, it was not clear what Mr Zuma stood for. At home, in front of African National Congress audiences, he sounded like a nationalist and socialist. Abroad, he sounded like a free-market liberal. He never properly explained what he believed in. Pessimists suggested it was getting power and holding on to it.
So far, it looks as though they are right. Mr Zuma still hasn’t explained his vision, but his actions since he came to power suggest that it consists in paying off his political allies while cracking down on his critics.
The first tendency is illustrated by the government’s response to the latest round of strikes by the public-sector unions. The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) demanded an excessive 8.6% pay rise, more than double the rate of inflation, at a time when the country’s recovery from last year’s recession is fragile. Rather than facing these demands down, the government gave in to threats of even bigger strikes by raising its “final offer” of 7% by a further 0.5 percentage points. Not surprisingly, as The Economist went to press the unions were holding out for even more (see article).
The political reasons for caving in to Cosatu are clear. The union is an important ally on the ANC’s left. Mr Zuma is paying his dues to it. But the economic consequences of doing so are also obvious. The above-inflation pay increases that Cosatu has claimed over the past five years have swelled government expenditure and crowded out spending on worthier causes. Over-generous pay settlements will jeopardise economic recovery. Moreover, the money goes to workers who are already relatively well off, rather than to the 40% of South Africans who are without a job, many of them living in dire poverty. And at the same time as Mr Zuma’s government is giving too much money to its allies, it is threatening to remove liberties from its critics.
For all South Africa’s faults, its press has at its best been riotously, exhilaratingly free. The country’s 1996 constitution, one of the most liberal in the world, includes a protection of free speech and a right to “access any information held by the state”. In a democracy dominated by one party, as South Africa is, a free press is an especially important check on the abuse of power by the government.
Yet some in the ANC have never liked the press’s freedom to criticise. Hence a proposed new Protection of Information Bill that would impose arbitrary restrictions on access to government information, backed up by extreme punishments of up to 25 years in jail. The government wants to judge the release of information against a sweeping new test of the “national interest”, rather than today’s standard of “national security”. Ominously, it would be up to ministers to define the national interest. And a new Media Appeals Tribunal, also appointed by the government, would ensure that all reporting was “fair”, although it is not clear yet what powers it would have to punish “unfair” journalists. If all this were to happen, South Africa’s press would end up being subject to restrictions not seen since the days of apartheid.
Mr Zuma’s attitude to these proposals is not yet clear. He has not publicly supported the bill, yet he has not killed it; but when he says the press should be promoting the country’s “human rights culture” as well as its “prosperity, stability and the well-being of its people” instead of spreading “a daily diet of negativity and defeatism”, he sounds depressingly like the leader of Eritrea or Myanmar.

Time to come good
South Africa is Africa’s biggest economy and its most influential country. It could lead the continent towards prosperity and freedom, or in the other direction. It is largely up to Mr Zuma to decide which way it goes.
The signs so far are worrying, but it is early days yet. There is plenty of time for Mr Zuma to take a public stand against this rotten press bill. It would be a good way of telling his countrymen, and the rest of the world, that he has a vision for South Africa—and that it is a decent one. 

SHOOT: Africa and Africans are desperate to escape the continent-wide shackles of poverty.  To do this, leaders like Zuma have to do what African leaders - wuth the exception of Nelson Mandela - have never done before.  Put corruption and self indulgences aside and lead.  Lead the people - honestly, and decently.  

Sigma 70-300mm F4-5.6 APO DG Macro(Motorized)


 SHOOT: Sometimes it's good to have an 'in-between' lens.  You get your humongous lenses and then you get your ordinary lenses, but what about improving the mid-range, a lens that isn't too specialised; won't blur if you make a small movement while shooting, and won't turn an eagle flying directly overhead into a speck.  And you want to use it for sports? Well this is a very useful, versatile piece of equipment, and it won't break your budget either.

Sigma’s 70-300mm F4-5.6 DG OS is a compact telephoto zoom lens that offers great value for the money, excellent performance and is capable of macro photography with a 1:2 macro capabilities and has a switch for change over of focal lengths between 200mm and 300mm during macro photography. Three SLD (Special Low Dispersion) glass elements provide optimum color correction & sharpness throughout the entire zoom range, super Multi-Layer lens coating reduces flare and ghosting and assures high image quality throughout the entire zoom range. Its versatility handles close-up shots as well as natural looking portraits of subjects at a distance and dynamic sports shots. This compact, all-purpose, go-anywhere lens always delivers amazing photographs.
Designed for use with full frame digital SLR cameras. May also be used with smaller APS-c size sensors with a corresponding effective increase in focal length to about 100 to 450mm with most cameras

Minimum focusing distance of 59 inches allows macro photography with a maximum magnification of 1 to 2

Extremely compact design weighing only 19.4 oz measures only 4.8 inches in length.
More here.

“I feel like I’m back.” - Andy Irons

“He (Hobgood) paddled me inside and caught the first wave,” Irons said. “The next wave was better and I just fell out of the sky. I thought my board was going to break. It has two buckles on it already. I just went after it out there. C.J. is so dangerous here. I knew he would be getting tens or twos, and I was lucky it was twos today.”

With today’s victory, Irons moves from No. 18 to No. 7 on the ASP World Title Race rankings, a monumental feat that sees the powerful Hawaiian well inside the ASP Top 10.

“I feel like I’m back,” Irons said. “I have to thank ASP for giving me the wildcard back here. My whole dream was to come back and just win one contest, and I’ve done that now. I want more. And to win at Teahupoo, it’s my favourite wave in the world. It’s a very special win.

SHOOT: I wonder how Jordy did? But check this out, Slater scored a perfect 10.

Kelly Slater (USA), 38, past nine-time ASP World Champion, looked the form surfer of the day, scoring the event’s first and only Perfect 10 in the Quarterfinals for an incredible freefall layback barrel.

“It’s been a while (since getting a 10),” Slater said. “That was probably the best wave of the day. I looked at the first one, and I was surprised Ace (Adrian Buchan) went on the first one. The second one usually sucks out more and is more hollow. I was a little bit far back when I was paddling, and when I turned around to go, the wind was pushing me back. So I really had to overcompensate once I got to the bottom and finally set my edge. It was a good one though.”

Despite the Semifinal loss to Irons, Slater moves from 3rd to 2nd on the ASP World Title Race rankings, a mere 250 points behind frontrunner Jordy Smith (ZAF), 22.
“I’m up there pretty close,” Slater said. “Going all the way to J-Bay and getting 17th makes me wish I had stayed home. You lose confidence and waste time on planes. That’s the way it goes – you have good events and bad events. This one has been pretty good though. The waves haven’t been good, but we’ve seen a lot of cool things. We’ve seen the young guys really step up and we’ve seen Andy (Irons) come back and put one together.”

CURRENT ASP WORLD TITLE RACE TOP 5 (After Billabong Pro Tahiti)

1 – Jordy Smith (ZAF) 30,250 pts
2 – Kelly Slater (USA) 30,000 pts
3 – Taj Burrow (AUS) 25,250 pts
4 – Dane Reynolds (USA) 23,750 pts
5 – Adriano de Souza (BRA) 23,250 pts

Virgin: the lowest broadband prices in America, period!

If you hadn’t noticed, unlimited-data plans are fast disappearing — but here’s Virgin, offering up an unlimited Internet plan as if it never got the memo.
Second, Virgin requires no contract. You can sign up for service only when you need it. In other words, it’s totally O.K. with Virgin if you leave the thing in your drawer all year, and activate it only for, say, the two summer months when you’ll be away. That’s a huge, huge deal in this era when every flavor of Internet service, portable or not, requires a two-year commitment.
Third, the service price for this no-commitment, unlimited, portable hot spot is — are you sitting down? — $40 a month.
That’s no typo. It’s $40 a month.

Read the rest.

SHOOT: $40 is R280.  Cell C's deal, announced today, undercuts the Virgin offer, but still offers a cap.  Maybe soon we'll see even that fall away.  Who thought we'd start to draw level with the USA's pricing and connectivity structure so soon?

Cell C launches new network in Port Elizabeth

Sep 03 2010 11:18 By Simon Dingle from Fin24.com
Johannesburg - South Africa's third cellular network operator Cell C launched its next generation network under the "4Gs" brand in Port Elizabeth on Friday. The new HSPA+ network is scheduled for a phased rollout in 10 cities across the country.

Data pricing on the network is likely to spark a local price war in mobile broadband, with Cell C making data available at 5c per MB in bundle with an out-of-bundle rate of 39c.

Two packages are available on the new network, both sold at a flat fee that includes a modem and 12 months of connectivity.

The entry level package is sold at R1 499 and includes 24GB of data, while a second package at R2 999 includes 60GB of data. Speed on the entry level package is limited to 7.2Mbps, while the larger package allows speeds of up to 21.6Mbps.

Cell C CEO Lars Reichelt said the new network uses technology from Chinese manufacturer ZTE.

"HSPA+ gives a lot wider and deeper coverage. An HSPA+ transmitter on 900Mhz can cover three to five times more area than a UMTS 2100 site, so I need fewer base stations to cover an area," he said.

He added that voice is also improved with the new technology, which penetrates walls better and is less prone to interference.

Cell C has also been upgrading the core of its network with fibre-optic cables and has already rolled out 1461km of fibre, according to Reichelt.

"There are only about 18 operators in the world running HSPA+ on 900Mhz, but from today there will be 19," said Reichelt.

"We are on track to cover 34% of South Africa's population (with the new network) by the end of 2010 and will cover about 67% by mid-2011," said Reichelt, adding that the next two cities will go online before the end of September.

Cell C rebranded in August with a nationwide marketing campaign and a contentious logo that resembles the copyright symbol. The network also launched BlackBerry on its network in August and has connected more than 9000 BlackBerry devices since then, according to a sales representative.

SHOOT: This ought to be a kick in the nuts for Vodacom and MTN, not to mention local ISP's.

CELL C offers Supersonic Surfing at only 5c per MB

Using your own modem:
Supersonic surfing for only 5c per MB

Fast, faster, fastest. You've never experienced internet like this before. Your Cell C SIM card is your all-access pass to our state-of-the-art 4Gs network.


A once-off payment* of R999 (incl VAT) gets you:
  • a Cell C SIM card
  • 2GB of data each month for 12 months
     

A once-off payment* of R1,999 (incl VAT) gets you:
  • a Cell C SIM card
  • 5GB of data each month for 12 months
     
*By once-off payment we mean that you pay R999 for 2GB or R1,999 for 5GB and you automatically receive 2GB/5GB of data every month for 12 months.

Please check that your modem is compatible with Cell C's UMTS 900 network, because if not, you may experience significantly reduced data speeds.

You are not able to migrate to any other Cell C package without losing the benefits of the promotion.
  • Data cannot be transferred from one user to another.
  • Data cannot be converted back to Rand value.
     
Here's what your bundle buys you:

Facebook views Songs downloaded Movies Downloaded
2GB bundle 12, 000 times (once
every 2 min! 12h/day)
500 Songs 3 movies
5GB bundle 27, 000 times (once
every 1min! 12h/day)
1,250 Songs 7 movies

Billing


OUT-OF-BUNDLE DATA USAGE
•    Once you've used up your bundle, the out-of-bundle tariff of R 0.39/MB will apply.
•    Data usage will be summarized per session in bytes, and billed in 10 kilobyte increments.
•    A minimum charge of R0.02 will be charged for the session (opening the connection).
•    Out-of-bundle data usage is charged at the same rate during both peak and off-peak periods.


IN-BUNDLE DATA USAGE
•    You will receive your data bundle which will not be charged but measured in 10KB increments.
•    If a session was opened but no data was transferred for the 24 hour period an amount of bytes equal to R0.02 will be depleted from the bundle per day rounded to the nearest 10KB.
•    Data usage is measured at the same applicable rate during peak and off-peak periods.
The inclusive in and out of bundle tariffs only apply to local traffic. International roaming is excluded.

OTHER  USAGE
•    The SIM card can be used to make calls, send SMS and MMS.
•    Calls and MMS can only be made once the SIM card is put into a Cellular phone, you can also send an SMS from the Cell C connection manager software that is already installed on your computer.
•    Unless you have recharged with airtime, you will not be able to make any Voice calls or send SMS or MMS messages. You will however be able to receive voice calls, SMS and MMS messages without any airtime loaded.
•    To recharge for voice calls/SMS/MMS or data in excess of the included 2GB/5GB, the usual Cell C process applies: You must load pre-paid airtime, which is subject to the "all day" prepaid tariff.

Using Cell C's modem.:

Supersonic surfing for only 5c per MB

Faster, more affordable internet is finally here, thanks to Cell C. Satisfy your need for speed with our USB Speed Stick, your all-access pass to our state-of-the-art 4Gs network.


A once-off payment* of R1,499 (incl VAT) gets you:
  • a Cell C branded USB Speed Stick (capable of data speeds of up to 7.2 Mbps for downloading and 5.76 Mbps for uploading)
  • a Cell C SIM card
  • 2GB of data each month for 12 months
     

A once-off payment* of R2,999 (incl VAT) gets you:
  • a Cell C branded USB Speed Stick (capable of data speeds of up to 21.6 Mbps for downloading and 5.76 Mbps for uploading)
  • a Cell C SIM card
  • 5GB of data each month for 12 months
*By once-off payment we mean that you pay R1,499 for 2GB or R2,999 for 5GB and you automatically receive 2GB/5GB of data every month for 12 months.


Here's what your bundle buys you:

Facebook views Songs downloaded Movies Downloaded
2GB bundle 12, 000 times (once
every 2 min! 12h/day)
500 Songs 3 movies
5GB bundle 27, 000 times (once
every 1min! 12h/day)
1,250 Songs 7 movies

Billing

OUT-OF-BUNDLE DATA USAGE
•    Once you've used up your bundle, the out-of-bundle tariff of R 0.39/MB will apply.
•    Data usage will be summarized per session in bytes, and billed in 10 kilobyte increments.
•    A minimum charge of R0.02 will be charged for the session (opening the connection).
•    Out-of-bundle data usage is charged at the same rate during both peak and off-peak periods.

IN-BUNDLE DATA USAGE
•    You will receive your data bundle which will not be charged but measured in 10KB increments.
•    If a session was opened but no data was transferred for the 24 hour period an amount of bytes equal to R0.02 will be depleted from the bundle per day rounded to the nearest 10KB.
•    Data usage is measured at the same applicable rate during peak and off-peak periods.
The inclusive in and out of bundle tariffs only apply to local traffic. International roaming is excluded.

OTHER  USAGE
•    The SIM card can be used to make calls, send SMS and MMS.
•    Calls and MMS can only be made once the SIM card is put into a Cellular phone, you can also send an SMS from the Cell C connection manager software that is already installed on your computer.
•    Unless you have recharged with airtime, you will not be able to make any Voice calls or send SMS or MMS messages. You will however be able to receive voice calls, SMS and MMS messages without any airtime loaded.
•    To recharge for voice calls/SMS/MMS or data in excess of the included 2GB/5GB, the usual Cell C process applies: You must load pre-paid airtime, which is subject to the "all day" prepaid tariff.

Original article here.

Friday, September 03, 2010

"Journalism is about people, not technology"

SHOOT: What follows is an interesting treatise on the future of journalism, whether it's a career path worth following [something I've often asked myself] and how that path is evolving.  I disagree with the title though.  Journalism has become more than about people; it's become more of a dialogue, interactions that should be hyperlocal [but don't have to be].  So it's about people and place.  The problem with journalism is that it has become a shovelling mechanism, meaning the same shit got shovelled to everyone, everywhere.  The anti-dote to old media then is carefully coming up with a banquet that an audience in a particular place [recognising its idiosyncracies in other words] can appreciate, thus an editorial team brew and bake with all the local tastes and traditions on board, and these tastes are continuously tested, evolved and updated.

In addition to preparing coverage feasts tunede into a sense of people and a sense of place, there has to be waiting on the table [social media listening] and interacting with the audience [social media response], to the extent that audiences themselves will have their say [we the media] or respond to what is said [views on news is news], that will be the new Public Service News of the Future.  It's for the local people, and managed on behalf of the people to be about the people, about their conversations and interests [and not so much the editor's ability to guess].  A lot of idiots have to lose their jobs or catch-a-wake-up though before the New Media can fully manifest.

Read the full article here.



Following is an excerpt from Journalism Next, a 2010 paperback that students of Journalism should read to put in perspective the great opportunities ahead for the field. (To order go to http://www.cqpress.com/product/Briggs.html )

By Mark Briggs


To survive and thrive in the digital age, I argue, journalists need to adopt a new way of thinking and approaching their craft. Learning the skills and technology is the easy part. Recognizing you are part of a new information ecosystem is the steeper hill to climb.

My first book, “Journalism 2.0: How to Survive and Thrive in the Digital Age,” was published in 2007 and written for working journalists with a simple message: “you can do this” and the “future is now.”

In the United States, that “future is now” message came true. Too true in some ways. Many working journalists in 2006, when I started writing the book, could still embace the illusion that it would be 5 or 10 years before real disruption come to their industry. That grace period evaporated quickly in the U.S. as more than 15,000 journalists lost their jobs in 2008.

The pace of disruption for mainstream media – daily newspapers, local TV stations and magazines – is in full force today. As a result, the evolution of the business model is (finally) receiving the focus it deserves, meaning we have already begun to glimpse what the next incarnation of sustainable journalism looks like.

Newspapers are dying. Why should I study journalism?

We are at the end of a golden period for publishers, where organizations grew large and consolidated, pushing profit margins up and supporting publicly traded companies. Mainstream news organizations, the commercial enterprises that have supported journalism in the U.S., haven’t always been like this. Prior to 1970, journalism was practiced by many more organizations of differing sizes.

But the people who run news companies today only experienced the best of times during the 1970s, 80s and 90s, so any historical basis for claims of a stable industry seem shortsighted when using a longer lens to view the history of newspapers.

More than 100 years ago, the newspaper industry was dealing with technological change on a comparable scale to today. In the 1890s, telephone service revolutionized reporting, while “one linotype operator could do the work of five men,” according to the Encyclopedia of American Journalism, dramatically increasing the speed of printing.

This led to an explosion of newspapers – and newspaper readers – that I see as emblematic of what we’re seeing today with online journalism startups.

Look at the landscape of the Progressive Era, according to the Encyclopedia of American Journalism:
- The number of English-language daily newspapers grew from 850 in 1880 to 1,967 in 1900 to 2,200 in 1910. An additional 400 of other types … were also published that year.
- Daily circulation totals grew from 3.1 million in 1880 to 15.1 million in 1900 to 22.1 million in 1910.
- Chicago and Boston each had eight newspapers in 1900. New York had nine.
- Newspapers began charging (one cent) per issue in 1833 and it wasn’t until the 1880s when advertising slowly began to replace sales and subscriptions as the chief source of newspaper revenue so that by 1914, 66 percent of newspapers revenue came from advertising.
- By 1911, some newspaper critics began to fear the influence of advertising on journalism, “One proposed solution, which had little success, was to create an ‘adless’ newspaper supported by subscribers. Another was to create a non-partisan, adless newspaper funded by city government.

If journalism and the business that supports journalism can evolve that quickly once, who can argue that it won’t happen again? The technology that allowed the number of newspapers to grow 123% in 20 years is similar to what we’ve seen this decade with the Internet and publishing platforms like Wordpress.

In January 2009, the Los Angeles Times announced it was making enough money from online advertising to cover its entire (albeit drastically reduced) editorial workforce. Five years from now we will look back on this development as the beginning of the new era, when news organizations made the switch from print to online ad dollars for financial support.

Read the full article here.

ASK

Last Chance for South Africans to audition for Survivor Maldives

City: Johannesburg
Date: Saturday, 4 September
Venue : Bidvest Wanderers Bidvest Cricket Stadium
Corlett Drive
Sandton



1. Who can enter Survivor Maldives
All South African citizens may enter, on the following conditions:

• You have to be above the age of 21 as of 1 September 2010.
• You have to be physically and mentally healthy and fit.
• You have to be in the possession of a valid passport.
• You have to be able to swim.

2. How do I enter for Survivor Maldives?
The entry process works differently this season to ensure that as many people as possible can have a face-to-face interview and audition during the selection process.

In past seasons of Survivor SA entries had to be submitted in writing first before an audition was booked.

This time, there is an open casting call. If you want to enter, you simply have to arrive at the auditions, which will be held in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg.

During the audition you have to show the producers of the series selection committee why you should be chosen to be a Survivor contestant. 


More. 


SHOOT: I'd love to be going.  This show needs a strong character, an athletic Ozzie type character, and I'm also a photographer...

Earth on Verge of Huge Reset Button?

Mass extinctions have served as huge reset buttons that dramatically changed the diversity of species found in oceans all over the world, according to a comprehensive study of fossil records. The findings suggest humans will live in a very different future if they drive animals to extinction, because the loss of each species can alter entire ecosystems.

Some scientists have speculated that effects of humans - from hunting to climate change - are fueling another great mass extinction. A few go so far as to say we are entering a new geologic epoch, leaving the 10,000-year-old Holocene Epoch behind and entering the Anthropocene Epoch, marked by major changes to global temperatures and ocean chemistry, increased sediment erosion, and changes in biology that range from altered flowering times to shifts in migration patterns of birds and mammals and potential die-offs of tiny organisms that support the entire marine food chain.
More.

SHOOT: We need to get used to getting on with less.  A simpler, less greedy lifestyle.  And living in consideration not only for other people [which is already a stretch] but also other living things.

God did not create the universe, says Hawking

LONDON (Reuters) – God did not create the universe and the "Big Bang" was an inevitable consequence of the laws of physics, the eminent British theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking argues in a new book.

In "The Grand Design," co-authored with U.S. physicist Leonard Mlodinow, Hawking says a new series of theories made a creator of the universe redundant, according to the Times newspaper which published extracts on Thursday.

"Because there is a law such as gravity, the universe can and will create itself from nothing. Spontaneous creation is the reason there is something rather than nothing, why the universe exists, why we exist," Hawking writes.

"It is not necessary to invoke God to light the blue touch paper and set the universe going."

SHOOT: Now I don't feel so stupid.  If one of the smartest people alive today believed that a God was possible, and then changed his mind, I'm in good company.  Just a pity it took me 20 years to figure it out.

Hurricane Earl Hones In On East Coast

The category four storm is on course to lash the coast of North Carolina late Thursday, before shifting to the north. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect along the Mid-Atlantic coast and as far north as Massachusetts.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami are warning of heavy rains and damaging winds from the storm, which now has sustained winds of 230 kilometers per hour.

Forecasters say a dangerous storm surge could raise water levels along the coast as much as 1.5 meters.

The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland have declared states of emergency.

President Barack Obama has also declared a state of emergency in North Carolina, allowing the federal government to coordinate disaster relief efforts there.

Earl has already skirted parts of the eastern Caribbean, flooding parts of Antigua and ripping out trees and blowing down power lines on St. Martin. Officials in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico say they are working to restore electricity to more than 200,000 people who were affected by the storm.
SHOOT: Looks like the next 24-48 hours are going to be a bruising time for the East Coast.  And two more named storms have formed behind Earl.

Find out more here.

Ode to an Editor

Credit where credit is due - by Nick van der Leek

I think we're all familiar with the fairy tale, you know the part where the young man goes somewhere - bravely - to seek his fortune.  On the way he encounters a wicked witch, a dragon, tricksters, a princess and a castle.  Well, that pretty much sums it up for me.

During my stint at AVUSA there were a couple of interesting stories that made national news headlines.  One of them was the Reitz 4.  Since I had been attending lectures at UFS just the previous year, and had photos of Reitz, and since I knew one of the Reitz 4 [I even happened to have photos of Danie Grobler, and video] I thought I could bring a bit of sanity to the hysterical debate.

The editor wasn't interested of course, and simply shovelled up the usual SAPA headlines, and so I found that one story could be repeated in 4 different newspapers, often the same photo too.  No, quite literally.  So you'd have The Times, Sowetan, Beeld and The Star all vomiting out the same text in their printing presses.  I don't know about you, but if I really wanted to know what was going on behind the scenes, the nitty gritty, I would make some effort to find someone [er...like me] who had firsthand knowledge about these guys.  So unfortunately that one got away, and let's be honest, the Reitz story is still in the news now [they're appealing their sentences].

What Credit Crunch?

Another story I sent around was about the impending deterioration of the markets. [Sent in June 2008].  After the markets crashed I then reminded some of the editors of the emailed information, but to no avail.  It's a credit to the media that after missing the story of a lifetime [no one saw the credit crunch coming bar a few hacks like me] 2 years later they're a bit more open to revolutionary terms like 'Peak Oil' and 'Hindenberg Omen' and weird off the wall stuff like Wind Power and Electric Vehicles.

My job at AVUSA wasn't to write articles per se, it was to edit newsletters, compile statistical reports with a focus on being as invisible as possible, and specialising in disappearing into the background.  My intention wasn't to become a journalist, merely to give my writing a voice occasionally.  My mission is to build my personal brand as a noteworthy writer and commentator, someone who brings an unusual depth of insight and understanding [through extensive background reading, research and analysis] to a given topic.

What's this new Batman movie all about?

For example, when The Dark Knight came out I approached the Sunday Times Magazine's Damon Boyd, saying that this would be the #1 movie of the year, and since I'd read a book on the philosophy of the Dark Knight, could I write a feature on it.  As it turned out, and as we know now in hindsight, Dark Knight set numerous records during its theatrical run, it was the number one blockbuster [by some margin] in 2008. It broke the record for the biggest opening week ever. To date it is one of only three films to have earned more than $500 million at the North American box office, and it reached this mark significantly faster than Titanic.With over $1 billion in revenue worldwide, it is the seventh highest-grossing film of all time.  The film had 8 Academy Award Nominations and won two, many were sickened that it didn't win best flick. All IMAX theaters showing The Dark Knight were sold out for the opening weekend. I was spot on in advance of all these accolades but it didn't change one small thing - who was I?

Horton Hears A What?

So, unfortunately I only ever got to publish my precious Dark Knight thoughts on overseas websites, but then, I was just a nobody, right?
When movies like Horton Hears A Who came out, which also went to the number one at the local and international box office, AVUSA decided to go with disparaging reviews, shovelling New York's A.O. Scott rather than publishing what a South African living in Johannesburg thought about it.  As it turned out, Free State university wanted to use the movie as part of their integration strategy, to demonstrate how, despite one's differences, one could work together.  I remember The Times' Aspasia Karras and Rob McKay saying they 'hated it'.  This says a lot, wouldn't you say?

Hansie Who?

When I had interviews with people like Frans Cronje [who had just made Hansie] I endured more headshaking, when these were published by other newspapers [who, although I was a nobody to them, recognised a good read when they saw one] then AVUSA paid attention, attention enough to insist I had violated my contract.  Oh we don't want you to write for us, but don't write for anyone else either.  Oh but I am not employed to write for this company.  Yes, but we reserve the right to prevent you from writing for anyone else, even if that's not your job.  Really?  So a freelancer can't offer his work to anyone else?
And the reason why I was passionate about covering this story?  Because Hansie Cronje was my head boy.  I went to school with him.  What better position can a writer be in to write about someone who has the touched the lives of so many.  And once again, I had read Hansie's biography to insure my insights into this story were at an 'expert' level.  Didn't matter, did it?

Ryk That

I learnt my lesson though, a disciplinary hearing for offering a story no one wanted to the Sunday Independent, I then went back to the drawing board and offered stories to my boss, to our own publications.  Of course it was all turned down.  All they wanted to do was shovel SAPA stories all day and wag their fingers at me, "You can't write, you're not a journalist."  Ryk Neethling off to the Olympics?  Oh I used to swim with Ryk, how about getting - No.  Funnily enough, in Ryk's own autobiography, he took a few pot shots at my boss' husband, who accused Ryk in the Sunday Times of having no big match temperament.  Mr Isaacson, if you've ever met him, is not the sort of person you'd imagine has ever been capable of doing anything besides write about sport.

Korea Move

I lived and worked in South Korea for 4 years, and South Korea has the world's best [the fastest] broadband connections on Earth.  I offered to write about some of the things we could learn from them - But No.  A few months later one of the company's Board Members returned from a trip to Korea and wrote exactly the story I had been pitching all along. So it's taken a really long time to get a trickle of the stories out that have wanted to see the light of day. 

My question is why do editors do this?  Is it spite?  Is it ADD?  Is it stupidity?  Is it a superiority or inferiority complex?  Is it too much time living in a cave filled with words?  Is it because editors are bitter?  Or simply because they don't know any better?  Or is it a case that this process takes time.  It takes time to suss someone out, to trust that their words might look good to others, if not to oneself. Are editors generally for truth, justice and the South African way, or is it a case of trying to keep the door closed so they can hold on to their own jobs?  Is that what they teach you in Grahamstown? 

Do you know in my efforts to write for this company that I worked for I was finally fired?  Yep, I made the mistake of offering to write a story for the Sowetan.  A reporter [Bruce Fraser] who thought I was trespassing on his courtyard then turned this offer which he was privy to, into an accusation of me misrepresenting myself - saying that I was saying I was employed as a journalist by Sowetan.  Er...no, I simply offered to write a story in the Sowetan, a company that I did work for, just not as a journalist.  And through this hijacking of circumstances, I was fired. Upstanding chaps like Mike Tissong saw tremendous merit in all the hearsay accusations.  Remember, just a few months earlier I was almost fired for writing for another publication.  Here I am being fired for trying to write for them.  Nice one.

I did win myself a nice settlement, and as I understand, I was due to be retrenched anyway.  In fact a few weeks later the team that was 15 strong when I joined was down to 3.  Yes 3.  Frankly, if this is how you run a business, if this is how you treat people, if this is your response to talent and effort, if all you can do is defend your turf in the name of 'Corporate Politics', or turn down contributions in the name of 'editorial independence' but really at the expense of good journalism, the demontration of an ongoing and ugly disdain for morals and interests beyond one's own, then you don't deserve your audience or your employees.  I discovered this disdain, this decayed value system right through top management all the way down to some of the born-nosing journalists.  I think the share price reflects that.  I think staff migration reflects that. 
I think the atmosphere reeks with it.

So we come to end of the fairy tail and I'm happy to say that I survived my wicked witch.  In fact she's the inspiration behind a book I'm working on [THE DEVIL IS A CHAINSMOKER].  I'm still out there seeking my fortune, I struggled to make even a little progress in spite of working for a publishing/media company.  In fact I published more work before and since working there.  It's a world where the dragons outnumber the knights, and the witches and the dragons are colluding.  But like the internet, information wants to be free, and in this industry, if you don't know what you're doing, or can't do what must be done, or you're unnecessarily difficult about things, you get punished.  Eventually.

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Can SA compete with its emerging market competitors?

“Emerging markets will grow three times faster than developed countries this year,” HSBC’s chief executive Michael Geoghegan has predicted.


Intense competition for resources and cost-savings is driving the emerging market, a harbinger for the economic emergence of African states and the CIVETS.

Read the rest of this article.

Why I Write

Why [Don't] I Write, or Why don't I write? by Nick van der Leek

Over the next few days five different publications will be paying me for writing and photography.  They couldn't be more different.  One is a financial magazine, another is travel, there's IT and bicycling.

I've become very caught up in the drama of getting 2000 word pieces published in beautiful, glossy, throwaway magazines.  I try to write about what I care about, and to express these writings in a voice that is sincere.  The trouble is the world couldn't care less about a lot of things that they'd rather not think about. 

I have a few complaints, so if you'd like to skip ahead, go to 'Research'

Complaints

For example if you're writing for a Travel Magazine, and you made a blunder on your own trip, perhaps you arrived late, or got lost, or knocked over an elephant, the Travel Magazine would rather insist on a straight-laced [aka boring] 'expert' view than to look at a real experience, the sort of situation faced by the common man.  Editors moodily cry "I'm on deadline" and then wonder why your time sensitive piece has become obsolete. They ask for images in high resolution, then forget to use them, or change their minds. A 1500 word interview with Morgan Freeman is binned because it's 100 words to short.  You pitch an idea, only to see it rejected, and then appear in print either under the editors own name or one of their inhouse writers.  Nice one.  The theme music is 'frustration'.

Recently I have been pitching a story on my experience in Australia to just about every publication I can think of.  Personally I think it is one of the most important and topical stories for South Africans right now.  After the World Cup, the blues have set in, and we've settled into a phase of losing [Bafana, The Tri-Nations] and complaining [the ongoing strikes], committing suicides and the usual murder trials.  At the moment it is Bees Roux versus the Cops.  We're in dire need of some information that allows us to truly believe we live in a good place.  But all the publications can think of are these small picture forgettable things - like how to grow your abs, or what's fun on the Garden Route, or how to make the cover of your IT magazine as boringly businesslike as is humanly possible.

I get told not to narrate, just to provide the facts.  I don't know about you, but if I am going to read something, I'm more likely to read it if I can trust that the person who is telling it is personally involved.  I don't mean waxing lyrical at every turn, quite the opposite.  I mean that the person writing cares about what he is communicating; it's not just a job, and it's not just putting a few facts [crumbs] on the table.  Often it is those casual, off the cuff comments that sum up a piece that get cut.   To have a fact only piece is a bit like selling a balance sheet. If you hate what you write and your editor hates editing it, chances are good your readers are going to hate reading it.  The converse is also true! And realistically, we're living in a world where if you aren't entertaining, if you aren't interesting,  if you can't tell a story, nobody wants to listen.  Boring is the enemey.  The trick is to be entertaining but also to add value.  To add value but be interesting.  And to sell news and information at the same time. 

Research

I did a lot of research on the Bible over the past few months and years, and I realised eventually that I made a mistake.  The mistake was to dismiss the importance of the Bible.  I am not going to argue whether it is true or not, but even if you argue that it isn't true, you cannot argue that it isn't important.  Beliefs always are.

Which brings me back to the point.  I started writing as a child; I wrote a Enid Blyton-Gerald Durrell mishmash when I was about 14 years old, and followed this up with a Star Wars-Highlander-Harry Potter [except Harry Potter hadn't even been conceived then] when I was about 15 and finished this book a few weeks after my mother's death, and on the morning of my matric finals science exam.  It's agonising to admit that those manuscripts have been lost; they were dumped in a garage and my father's Mercedes squished it to a throwaway pulp.  That manuscript took 2 years to type, and it was in writing that manuscript that I learned to type on an old typewriter.  I remember sitting in the garden, at the far end, behind the pool, typing, so that my brother could concentrate for his matric finals.  Even 30 or so metres away he complained that I was disturbing his studies [and to his credit, he got several A's].

At university I went on to write a crime thriller called Fly By Night, and by now the tally of [unpublished] writings, 50 000word + manuscripts, is at around half a dozen or more.  I have three manuscripts right now that I consider publishable.  HOLIDAY, a climate thriller, is my own version of Alex Garland's The Beach with some Cormac McCarthy's The Road thrown in for good measure.  The Half Full Moon is my attempt at the quintessential South African novel.  It's a reboot of the God's Must Be Crazy, but it focuses more on the spiritual side of man, the beauty of the Kalahari,and the metaphor of the Western man where a grain of sand can break his machine, than on comedy.  Finally there is the sappy HEAVEN IS IN YOUR HEART, which is a kind've ode to my mother, who, as I say, died when I was 17, just before my matric exams.

Love for writing

I have a love for writing, and for telling stories.  It's more than mere journalism, and it's more than entertainment.  It's about spreading meaning, and inspiring.  Sometimes real life does not inspire.  Sometimes, thoughts and ideas expressed on paper can lift us up to where we feel we ought to be. 

I didn't pursue writing at university because writers that I admired had very unhappy lives.  Enid Blyton, Ayn Rand, Ernest Hemingway, Virginia Woolf, Alan Paton and so on.  I also recognised in myself a vulnerability, that I could get lost in self-made world's of escapism and thus live unhappily ever after.  I wanted to live, and if I found the time as an old person, find time to write.

I didn't expect to be so disinterested in commerce.  I didn't expect to have so little faith in Capitalism and Materialism.  I must admit, I didn't expect to be so sensitive.  I studied advertising and economics, physics, architecture, law and English.  I loved all of these subjects, but I loved languages the most.  It seemed to me then, and now, that the most important lessons are philosophical.  You may think this is very vague, but if you consider what is happening in the world, that we spend millions on arms, on stadiums and white elephants, yet we can't find the budgets for education, or the poor, well you can see how important the right philosophy is.  I suppose politics is more potent a weapon than philosophy, but then again, when philosophy is used as mercenary - in religious uprisings for example, well, it's often unstoppable.

My dream has always been to write stories that will come to light on the silver screen.  To write movies.  I have made a 2 hour film once, a collection of photos, video clips and messing around which I screened to a 100 or so cyclists that I went on a tour with.  The feeling of the audience responding with laughter, cries and sighs to something you have created, with much subtlety and sensitivity, is very special.  When you can see what others often miss in life, and emphasise that, and share that, it can only enhance our common circumstances.

What am I?

So here I am in 2010, a full time freelance photo journalist.  Is that what I am?  A photojournalist?  I consider myself an artist, like my brother [who happens to be a fulltime, and very successful artist, styling himself after our great grandfather, Tinus de Jongh].  An artist who draws pictures in his mind but uses words or film to illustrate it.  My high school story, VERSATILE FLYING SECRETS [a title as meaningless but somehow impressive as ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND and THE UNBEARABLE LIGHTNESS OF BEING] was conceived with an imagination that would have defeated filmmaking at the time.  It utilised blue kingdoms and bloody sword battles in high definition.  It revisited the ancient genetic memories of the protagonist, Christopher Ulysses, and it's motive was to remind us, literally, where we come from.  That our genes are very old.  That we are more than who we are.  That survival is incredibly special, and rare, and also, painful.  It was also a story about the triumph of traditional values and technologies over modernity, something we see in Harry Potter and to some extent in Star Wars [swords and magic remain the ultimate weapon in the face of planet destroying spaceships].

My strategy has been to build a name for myself as a writer.  I have done that over the past 24-36 months, or, I think I have.  I suppose the time has come to try again to publish my manuscripts, and perhaps find the courage to reboot VERSATILE.  I can cringe and wail at having lost all that precious toil, or I can belive in myself and re-discover the essence of that story.

What I am convinced of, though, is the value that Story has to mankind.  It is more than you know.  Story is what delivered us through every trial there ever was.  Either the Story we told ourselves, or the Story we heard and internalised as our own.  Without a Story, we are nothing.  I feel this very strongly.  Hence, I literally am compelled to produce a noteworthy script in order to feel that I have truly contributed to shaping the philosophies of my peers, of my generation.  This is not an easy thing, and at the time of writing - Now in other words - I dare say I have failed in that mission.

But from here on out, for a season or so, I will dedicate myself once again not to the 2500 word pieces about a one-off trip somewhere, or the layout of rondavels, or how fast Korea's internet is, but to the soul food stories.  The stories you read that imbue your dreams with a touch of chrome, or the taste of vanilla.  From here I will look to producing, in factory style, 50 000 word chunks, with the aim of adding to the libraries of the world.  Perhaps, if it is good enough, I will get to see my name in lights, and my story shining for a darkened audience to share.  That's my prayer.  I hope you will pray it with me over the coming spring and summer.

Double Movie Review: A-Team and Sorcerer's Apprentice

The A-Team Reboot Works - 7.5/10

If you're queuing up at the movies and you're not sure what to watch, and you've been smart and watched INCEPTION and Knight and Day then you'll probably be left with these two. A-Team and Apprentice. Both are action fantasy flicks, A-Team may even be the more imaginative of the two. What's good about A-Team is it shows us a little backstory, it's the Origins story of the A-Team. We learn little things like A is for Alpha Team and where BA develops his fear of flying.

It's not a flawless flick, but a lot of moolah and effort went into making it. A favorite scene is 'driving a tank' that's parachuting out of the sky. Sharlto Copley also does South Africa proud with the odd accent ek se. The bad guy/s are the problem. It's okay having one arch enemy but it gets confusing when everyone is morfing into the bad guy. I guess the bottom line in A-Team is betrayal, but the storyline is a little confusing. Gadgets is something writer Stephen J. Cannell made part and parcel of the franchise and this flick uses gadgets and explosions - making Hannibal's plan 'come together' to full effect. Liam Neeson has been ridiculed as Hannibal, but I thought he did a good job.

Nicolas Cage's Sorcerer Sucks 5.5/10

Dave Stutler: [singing] I got a date with a girl cause I'm... awesome!
Did you know that the Sorcerer's Apprentice originally came to us from a 1797 poem.  
WIKI: The poem begins as an old sorcerer departs his workshop, leaving his apprentice with chores to perform. Tired of fetching water by pail, the apprentice enchants a broom to do the work for him — using magic he is not yet fully trained in. The floor is soon awash with water, and the apprentice realizes that he cannot stop the broom because he does not know how to.
Not knowing how to control the enchanted broom, the apprentice splits it in two with an axe, but each of the pieces becomes a new broom and takes up a pail and continues fetching water, now at twice the speed. When all seems lost, the old sorcerer returns, quickly breaks the spell and saves the day. The poem finishes with the old sorcerer's statement that powerful spirits should only be called by the master himself.

It's a compelling idea, but that's all it is.  It's just a single evocative scene with nothing else holding it together.  Frankly, Cage's Apprentice tries to invent a back story.  It's not a very good one.  For starter's if the flick is about an Apprentice, why not cast a big star in the role instead of I-don't-know-who.  Is Cage supposed to steal the show?  If he is, he doesn't do a great job.  It's entertaining but it's not charming.  It lacks...what's the word...magic. 
If Balthazar [Cage] is supposed to be so old and wise why does he seem so modern and clever?  I'm not sure what Merlin has to do with the story, or the balls spewing electricity idea, and the bozo who plays the Apprentice irritates.  A SkyMovies review describes him [whoever he is] as Shia LeBeouf without the preening conceit.  Yes, perhaps he is supposed to be a bumbler, but the result is that when this kid who seems to be majoring in Self-Deprecation finally pulls off magic tricks they're not credible.  There's also something faintly unconvincing about the special effects...er...sorry, magic. 
Those are the good guys.  What about the baddies, like Alfred Molina and whatsis face?

Molina doesn't do much, but if a villain with a walking stick and bowler hat is your idea of evil, he's your man. - NY Daily News

Monica Belluci adds some sexiness to a cast, and the enchanted broom scene does tickle for half a moment.  Very small children will enjoy this, along with people who almost never go to the movies and don't really care what they watch [or if it makes any sense].  For the rest, stick to Mickey Mouse.

STOCK MARKET CRASH ALERT: 6th Hindenberg Omen on 31 August 2010


SHOOT: If you've been watching global stocks, you'll have noticed a few strange things happening.

- The markets lacking both confidence and direction
- Gold breaking new records
- Oil prices sticking to a band of $75-$85, and always tracking higher when stocks gain
- The markets falling dramatically
- The markets rising dramatically

By 'markets' I am talking about global stocks. The Dow, the FTSE, the JSE.  Have a look at the two-year chart of the Dow at the top.  That first sharp drop [aka CRASH] happens in the month of September [2008].  We're still hoping,waiting, wishing to recover from that. Jump a year forward in time to September 2009 and you can see the markets still trying to claw their way back, but still a ways off the highs of 2008.  And then jump to now. Since November 2009 the market has struggled to remain over a minimum threshold. Can you see what it is? In February, June and July the markets sank to that mystical 10 000 level.  What we're likely to see, soon, is a September 2008 scale CRASH, Part 2.  Why? The Hindenberg Omens (6 of them) is one set of ominous signals. Fundamentally, the markets cannot go anywhere but down because fundamentally resources are both more expensive and increasingly scarce.  By resources I'm talking about fuel and food. They're the most basic resources of an economy.  Both are inflationary and are behind the contraction of GDP and reducing disposable income [or spending, or consumption]. 

It's reached levels now where people aren't buying houses any more, on a scale large enough for house prices around the world to slump, which then causes the contraction of finance and the disappearance of banks.
Unfortunately we used our bailout cash to bail out companies that had no future, and to rescue banks that were swindling the middle class.  Fundamentally, nothing has changed, except that energy prices remain high in spite of slack growth. 

Now look at the JSE in South Africa - this is a graph looking at the past year.
Notice the 26 000 level, a floor touched in November, February, June and July.  At the end of August the markets swung towards 26 000 once again, before rebounding wildly, which is where we are now. The market insists on correcting one way, then fluctuating in the opposite direction.  It's trying to break through the 28 000 band but a year after going through 26 000 it keeps sinking back to that level.  Why?  Because spin and words like 'recovery' and the odd spending stimulus aren't the same things as jobs, there's certainly nothing fundamental driving growth, like huge new resource discoveries, or game changers.  People who have lost their jobs during this recession have cashed in their pensions, cashed in their unemployment benefits, used up the credit of family and friends, and it's simply postponed the inevitable.  What is the inevitable? 

We don't want to hear it, or even face it, but we face a global contraction.  In fact if you want to give the current state of the world economy a label, here's a good one: compressive deflationary contraction. But those three words are very bad news.  Forget double-dip recession, this is a long term contraction.  This is a Depression.
It's come about because you need cheap and abundant resources to breathe fire into the world's economy, such as it configured today - based on suburbia, and suburbia is based on cars driving around, and cities are based on long haul trucking and air freight.  It's this lifestyle that has no future, and we can attempt to maintain it, but it will simply become harder, and more expensive.  And we'll see economies wilt [contract].  That includes China by the way, and America.

The current rebound on the JSE resembles the shortlived June/July peak.  I believe we have depleted all our other resources too - credit, hope and wishful thinking.  The Hindenberg Omen which signaled the 2008 crash is back, clanging loudly in the background.  The ship is going to go down at any moment now.  If you have money in stocks, get it out, all of it, now.


Further Background:
Markets triggered another Hindenburg Omen on 31st August - that is the 6th one so far. The fact that CNBC and Yahoo Finance have Hindenburg Omens in their headlines and technical traders drawing a clear line in the sand with abated breaths makes us concern at shorting the current rally - the Dow is now 10112 pre-open. Up 1%. Not a bad move pre open - a 1 % handicap before tee off is a good trade. BUT, as we said, when the world stops and watch expectantly for a crash, it seldom occurs.

Real crashes occur usually after a rally. Call it a clean up of weak bears, shaking off the shorts. So if you plan on shorting this market today, do it carefully and with stops. We suspect a quick (about a week or so) huge rally, followed by a crash. Obviously there is always 2 sides to a coin - one could easily come up with a competing conspiracy theory such as the one we proposed above to support a crash. We do not like the odds, and either way we have loads of shorts in India! India’s NIFTY is giving us a headache! See you in the battlefield…

So you want to appear in FHM? You'll need a photographer then!

FHM ModelBook is live!


The much anticipated FHM ModelBook is now live!

FHM ModelBook provides a platform for aspirant FHM models to realise their dreams and aspirations while developing a profile with FHM’s online users. And, it’s simple to use and puts the power of social networking straight into your hands!
FHM ModelBook lets you create and manage your own online modeling portfolio, connect with your fans and even other models! And girls who prove most popular with FHM users will be featured in FHM magazine!

Here are a few simple FAQs for all those interested models who wish to use the service and earn their shot at fame, fortune and FHM exposure!
Click here to create a profile and get started.

What is FHM ModelBook?
FHM ModelBook is FHM’s social networking community for FHM Models. By creating an FHM profile and joining the FHM ModelBook group, you’ll be able to upload and share pictures with the FHM community and other models, in effect managing your very own online modeling portfolio on FHM! As you participate in the FHM ModelBook community, you’ll earn achievements and build your very own model brand!

What is FHM Models 2011, and how is it different to FHM ModelBook?
FHM Models 2011 is a voting competition, whereas FHM ModelBook is a social networking platform. You will need a profile that’s part of the FHM ModelBook group to be considered eligible for entry into FHM Models 2011.

Will I lose my profile on FHM ModelBook once FHM Models 2011 ends?
No. Your profile on FHM ModelBook is persistent, and is yours to manage freely. Use it to promote yourself, your shoots, your events – anything you’d like!

What are the benefits of joining FHM ModelBook?
Beyond having your very own online portfolio that you can manage that’s tied to FHM, joining FHM ModelBook is required to participate in FHM modeling properties such as FHM Models 2011.

NOTE: If you would like to shoot a portfolio for FHM contact Nick van der Leek Photography.  You get quality at good value.  Click here to get in touch.

OneRepublic - Secrets


I need another story
Something to get off my chest
My life gets kinda boring
Need something that I can confess
'Til all my sleeves are stained red

From all the truth that I've said
Come by it honestly I swear
Thought you saw me wink, no
I've been on the brink, so

Tell me what you want to hear
Something that will delight those ears
Sick of all the insinceres
I'm gonna give all my secrets away

This time, don't need another perfect lie
Don't care if critics never jump in line
I'm gonna give all my secrets away

My God, amazing how we got this far
It's like we're chasing all those stars
Driving shiny big black cars
And everyday I see the news
All the problems that we could solve

And when a situation rises
Just write it into an album
Sending it straight to gold
I don't really like my flow, no, so

Tell me what you want to hear
Something that will delight those ears
Sick of all the insinceres
I'm gonna give all my secrets away

This time, don't need another perfect lie
Don't care if critics never jump in line
I'm gonna give all my secrets away

Oh, got no reason, got not shame
Got no family I can blame
Just don't let me disappear
I'm 'a tell you everything

So tell me what you want to hear
Something that will delight those ears
Sick of all the insinceres
So I'm gonna give all my secrets away

This time, don't need another perfect lie
Don't care if critics never jump in line
I'm gonna give all my secrets away

So tell me what you want to hear
Something that will delight those ears
Sick of all the insinceres
So I'm gonna give all my secrets away

This time, don't need another perfect lie
Don't care if critics never jump in line
I'm gonna give all my secrets away
All my secrets away, all my secrets away

More lyrics: http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/o/one_republic/#share

Wednesday, September 01, 2010

The Surf Diaries

#24  Getting Set

Today I do the best I've done in 24 surf sessions.  For the first time I feel like I'm actually standing, sliding, surfing on a wave.  I'm up on one leg, but the rear leg is still bent for balance - in a classic, on yours marks, GET SET position. To get to go, I need to find finesse, and some extra balance.  Losing weight will help, and to continue getting stronger and a sense of how the water, the board and me work together.  It's taken a while to find the courage to catch the big swells, to be dumped to moer and gone, and to mix it with the tribe who know what they're doing.  This best session yet was on a day when the wind was blowing offshore, meaning the sets were held up that bit longer, and the height was just that little bit higher than usual.  Looking outside right now, the conditions are looking similar. Standby for go. 

Hurricane Earl is Category 4, on track to hit US East Coast [GRAPHICS]