A catastrophe for Iowa farmers will not be just a catastrophe for Midwestern Americans. In the Iowa floods, we'll see more evidence of how the problems of weird weather (climate change) combine and ramify the problems associated with peak oil.[I made exactly this point earlier today. Actually the breadbasket of America is very much part and parcel of the basket for the world's bread.] In this particular case they lead to an inflection point sometime around the 2008 harvest season, which will also be our time of political harvest.
These are not your daddy's or granddaddy's floods. These are 500-year floods, events not seen before non-Indian people starting living out on that stretch of the North American prairie. The vast majority of home-owners in Eastern Iowa did not have flood insurance because the likelihood of being affected above the 500-year-line was so miniscule -- their insurance agents actually advised them against getting it. The personal ruin out there will be comprehensive and profound, a wet version of the 1930s Dust Bowl, with families facing total loss and perhaps migrating elsewhere in the nation because they have no home to go back to.
Iowa in 2008 will be an even slower-motion disaster than Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Beyond the troubles of 25,000 people who have lost all their material possessions is a world whose grain reserves stand at record lows. The crop losses in Iowa will aggravate what is already a pretty dire situation. So far, the US Public has experienced the world grain situation mainly in higher supermarket prices. Cheap corn is behind the magic of the American processed food industry -- all those pizza pockets and juicy-juice boxes that frantic Americans resort to because they have no time between two jobs and family-chauffeur duties to actually cook (note: reheating is not cooking).
Behind that magic is an agribusiness model of farming cranked up on the steroids of cheap oil and cheap natural-gas-based fertilizer. Both of these "inputs" have recently entered the realm of the non-cheap. Oil-and-gas-based farming had already reached a crisis stage before the flood of Iowa. Diesel fuel is a dollar-a-gallon higher than gasoline. Natural gas prices have doubled over the past year, sending fertilizer prices way up. American farmers are poorly positioned to reform their practices. All that cheap fossil fuel masks a tremendous decay of skill in husbandry. The farming of the decades ahead will be a lot more complicated than just buying x-amount of "inputs" (on credit) to be dumped on a sterile soil growth medium and spread around with giant diesel-powered machines.
Like a lot of other activities in American life these days, agribusiness is unreformable along its current lines. It will take a convulsion to change it, and in that convulsion it will be dragged kicking-and-screaming into a new reality. As that occurs, the US public will have to contend with more than just higher taco chip prices. We're heading into the Vale of Malthus -- Thomas Robert Malthus, the British economist-philosopher who introduced the notion that eventually world population would overtake world food production capacity. Malthus has been scorned and ridiculed in recent decades, as fossil fuel-cranked farming allowed the global population to go vertical. Techno-triumphalist observers who should have known better attributed this to the "green revolution" of bio-engineering. Malthus is back now, along with his outriders: famine, pestilence, and war.
We're headed, it seems, toward a fall "crunch time," and that crunching sound will not be of cheez doodles and taco chips consumed on the sofas of America. I think we're heading into a season of hoarding.
NVDL: I did a grocery shop yesterday, and aware as I am of the impending fuel price hikes, it occurred to me to stock up on tinned food, and build up some sort of long term food cushion. The thought just drifted into my consciousness. If I am thinking about that, God knows everyone else is about to - Kunstler is spot on that we're about to enter a season of hoarding...and from there, we're not from anarchy.
As the presidential campaign moves into its final round, Americans may be hard-up for both food and gasoline. On the oil scene, the next event on the horizon is not just higher prices but shortages. Chances are, they will occur first in the Southeast states because oil exports from Mexico and Venezuela feeding the Gulf of Mexico refineries are down more than 30 percent over 2007.
Perhaps more ominous is the discontent on the trucking scene. Truckers are going broke in droves, unable to carry on their business while getting paid $2000 for loads that cost them $3000 to deliver. In Europe last week, enraged truckers paralyzed the food distribution networks of Spain and Portugal. The passivity of US truckers so far has been a striking feature of the general zombification of American life. They might continue to just crawl off one-by-one and die. But it's also possible that, at some point, they'll mount a Night-of-the-Living-Dead offensive and take their vengeance out on "the system" that has brought them to ruin. America has only about a three-day supply of food in any of its supermarkets.
The yet-more-ominous thing here is that shortages of food and oil are two fiascos that are pretty clearly predictable for the second half of the year. That's bad enough without figuring in the "unknowns" that could kick up American hardship a few more notches.The hurricane season just got underway -- obscured for the moment by the bigger weather story in Iowa. The fate of the banks is a train wreck still waiting to happen. As it occurs -- also heading into the high political and hurricane seasons -- we could find ourselves not only a nation wet, hungry, and out-of-gas, but also completely broke. I'm sorry that Tim Russert will not be here to talk us through it all.
NVDL: H5N1 is another curve ball waiting to catch our species while we're looking the other way.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Writer's barrier, Rabbits and Moyos
I had an unusally sociable weekend, due in part to the fact that I've turned my back on writing and blogging for a while. This decision was reinforced by some stuff I saw in some of the Media I was courting which...well, let's just say, it makes the rejection of my stuff seem spiteful to say the least. Anyhoo, at least I've been rewarded with a lekker weekend, and am going to hang up my keyboard for a few weeks.
One idea I did have for photography, and in particular, sexy photography, is to have a skimpily dressed babe covered in cute rabbits. I can get on my hands on two (rabbits...but I guess skimpily clad babes too ;-) but more will be something of a challenge.
Met an interesting guy at Moyos today. He worked for 6 months in Sudan. I think the civility of suburbia becomes nauseating when you've been in more REAL environments. I think part of the reason is that suburbia after all is caricature - it's not based on a living arrangement that makes any sense.
Also visited 7th Avenue in Melville and Cats Pajamas - places I should know well by now but basically didn't bother with after an opening foray in Johannesburg. What strikes me about why Moyos and 7th are so enjoyable are they are both very walkable or to some extent very plugged into an organic system - so facets that we really need to invest in more going into the future.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Demi Moore Bush Pic - what's it all about?
Well, nothing to do with George W. It's the stuff of nightmares for young teenage boys, fantasy for a niche audience. Click here to view. VERY NOT SAFE FOR WORK
Oil prices ease after reported Saudi pledge
SINGAPORE (AFP) — Oil prices eased on Monday after the United Nations chief said top OPEC crude producer Saudi Arabia had agreed to increase production and did not want to be blamed for the impact of soaring prices.
NVDL: Saudi is facing both depleting and rising domestic consumtion (read: lower exports), so I can't see this 'pledge' holding much oil. Seawater perhaps.
NVDL: Saudi is facing both depleting and rising domestic consumtion (read: lower exports), so I can't see this 'pledge' holding much oil. Seawater perhaps.
Hong Kong shuts down market after chicken tested H5N1 positive
HONG KONG, June 7 (Xinhua) -- Hong Kong health authorities closed down a poultry market here Saturday after excrement samples collected from hencoops at the marketplace were confirmed infected with the deadly strain of H5N1 avian influenza virus.
More.
NVDL: Probably the greatest threat we face is not high food or fuel prices, but that these distract us and take away resources from fighting the H5N1 pandemic threat. Climate change also means that diseases change pattern and spread to new areas, creating unexpected change.
More.
NVDL: Probably the greatest threat we face is not high food or fuel prices, but that these distract us and take away resources from fighting the H5N1 pandemic threat. Climate change also means that diseases change pattern and spread to new areas, creating unexpected change.
Midwest flooding adds to farmers' woes
Livestock owners under threat; five U.S. ethanol plants forced to shut
Flooding in the Midwest has damaged thousands of acres of cropland at a time when corn prices are already at record highs and Americans are stretching their grocery budgets.
Storms this week have inundated fields in Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin and other states where much of the world’s food is grown. The flooding also threatens livestock owners, who depend on the grain to feed their herds, and has forced the closures of five ethanol plants.
NVDL: If you pay attention to these 'weather/storm' disasters, you start to realise the direct impact the weather/climate is having on human survival. In SA wet coal caused power outages, Australia suffered flooding of coal mines (coal prices remain very high), the rice bowl in Myanmar was devastated by a cyclone, the Midwest affected by floods, and Australia recently again. The UK is also suffering more frequent flooding and Europe suffers heatwaves.
Climate change threatening coral reef fish: Australian researchers
Flash floods, mudslides kill 25 in India's northeast
Flooding in the Midwest has damaged thousands of acres of cropland at a time when corn prices are already at record highs and Americans are stretching their grocery budgets.
Storms this week have inundated fields in Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin and other states where much of the world’s food is grown. The flooding also threatens livestock owners, who depend on the grain to feed their herds, and has forced the closures of five ethanol plants.
NVDL: If you pay attention to these 'weather/storm' disasters, you start to realise the direct impact the weather/climate is having on human survival. In SA wet coal caused power outages, Australia suffered flooding of coal mines (coal prices remain very high), the rice bowl in Myanmar was devastated by a cyclone, the Midwest affected by floods, and Australia recently again. The UK is also suffering more frequent flooding and Europe suffers heatwaves.
Climate change threatening coral reef fish: Australian researchers
Flash floods, mudslides kill 25 in India's northeast
Sunday, June 15, 2008
See anything wrong with this picture?
On the news tonight they punt a car that runs on water as the answer to all our problems. You drive around with a jug of water and everything's cool right? The end of the clip is quite interesting. They say there are no plans to unveil the vehicle at showrooms, or to roll the vehicle out in mass. Why? They don't say. I'll tell you why: the amount of energy the vehicle requires to separate hydrogen and run on it...is well, not close to the sort of equations we get with ordinary petrol.
So it's back to what Kunstler says: we can't run the world's highway systems the way we're running them now with any combination of alternatives. Even so, the media and consumers of media are dumb enough to consider cars running on water a story worth featuring in headline news. It's about as dumb as seeing a hole in the road and expecting to get to the other side. Maybe it happens in the movies that cars fly over gaps, or even horses pulling carriages make the magical leap. In reality there is a force that's quite important to know about. It's called gravity. In energy economics, there's something like gravity: it's called depletion of a limited non-renewable resource. I have a feeling we're going to try to make a jump across the crater in the road anyway.
Dribs and Drabs
The peak oil balloon, it may appear, is finally going up. Not only have we seen obvious signs like the highest oil price rise in history on June 6 (coincidentally the anniversary of D-Day which began the liberation of Europe in the Second World War), but Gordon Brown, accidental Prime Minister of a former oil exporting (1980-2005) country, may also be one of the unlikely envoys of truth. By Julian Darley (from here).
Two other major causes of the price leap were literally just words, showing how powerful rhetoric really is – rhetoric being the art of persuasion, in some ways perhaps the most important tool in human life. On this newly historic June 6th, a well known banking house, Morgan Stanley, opined that oil would hit $150 by July 4th, which few will need reminding is US Independence Day. I suspect that the irony of hitting a new milestone in oil dependence on that day was not lost on the troubled bank. Why should a few words from a bank make any difference? It turns out that several of the larger financial houses have quite a good record in predicting general oil price rises, and it is very likely that the market was responding in part to this forecast.
US foreclosure filings surge 48 percent in May
By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Business Writer
WASHINGTON - The number of U.S. homeowners swept up in the housing crisis rose further last month, with foreclosure filings up nearly 50 percent compared with a year earlier, a foreclosure listing company said Friday.
Nationwide, 261,255 homes received at least one foreclosure-related filing in May, up 48 percent from 176,137 in the same month last year and up 7 percent from April, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
One in every 483 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in May, the highest number since RealtyTrac started the report in 2005 and the second-straight monthly record.
Foreclosure filings increased from a year earlier in all but 10 states. Nevada, California, Arizona, Florida and Michigan had the highest statewide foreclosure rates.
Metropolitan areas in California and Florida accounted for nine of the top 10 areas with the highest rate of foreclosure. That list was led by Stockton, Calif. and the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in Florida.
NVDL: Is the US going into a recession? Yes, no, maybe? Actually, there's no question about it.
Two other major causes of the price leap were literally just words, showing how powerful rhetoric really is – rhetoric being the art of persuasion, in some ways perhaps the most important tool in human life. On this newly historic June 6th, a well known banking house, Morgan Stanley, opined that oil would hit $150 by July 4th, which few will need reminding is US Independence Day. I suspect that the irony of hitting a new milestone in oil dependence on that day was not lost on the troubled bank. Why should a few words from a bank make any difference? It turns out that several of the larger financial houses have quite a good record in predicting general oil price rises, and it is very likely that the market was responding in part to this forecast.
From theoildrum.com:
CEO of BP, Tony Hayward:
CEO of BP, Tony Hayward:
Yet energy supply has struggled to respond. Production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 350,000 barrels of oil a day last year. The production situation is even more challenging in the market-oriented nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, where many existing basins are maturing fast. In Britain, for instance, North Sea gas production recorded the world's lar-gest decline for the second year in a row, falling by 10 per cent in 2007. UK oil output rose very slightly, but this is a one-off, based on a single big new field. Production remains on a downward trend.
The last time oil prices surged to this kind of level, 30 years ago, new production from the North Sea helped bring prices down. This time, new OECD production will have to come from frontier provinces such as the Canadian oil sands, the Arctic and the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Another big impact on supply is Russia, where production has begun to decline. It is a little-known fact that, until now, the growing demand for oil from China and India in recent years has been met almost barrel for barrel by rising supply from Russia.
His diagnosis here is spot on, and it is very important that it be made by him (and the IEA) rather than only by pesky bloggers, and that it include a number of points that have yet to make it into the "common wisdom":
- demand growth is still very strong, and it is not just coming from China, it is also increasingly coming from oil-producing countries themselves;
- production is stagnating overall, and declining in a number of regions: OPEC (despite its apparently plentiful reserves, Russia and, more significantly, in regions that "we" control, like the North Sea and the US (no explanation given);
- incremental production can only come from "frontier" areas, ie expensive and low EROEI (although Hayward does not touch that concept, of course). There is no silver bullet or quick fix like Alaska and North Sea were 30 years ago.
But given the tone used, one can guess what the stage is for: the first two bits are in the "not our fault" category (nasty countries closed to us), and the last one is in the "hey look at what we can do" (we're here to help).
By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Business Writer
WASHINGTON - The number of U.S. homeowners swept up in the housing crisis rose further last month, with foreclosure filings up nearly 50 percent compared with a year earlier, a foreclosure listing company said Friday.
Nationwide, 261,255 homes received at least one foreclosure-related filing in May, up 48 percent from 176,137 in the same month last year and up 7 percent from April, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
One in every 483 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in May, the highest number since RealtyTrac started the report in 2005 and the second-straight monthly record.
Foreclosure filings increased from a year earlier in all but 10 states. Nevada, California, Arizona, Florida and Michigan had the highest statewide foreclosure rates.
Metropolitan areas in California and Florida accounted for nine of the top 10 areas with the highest rate of foreclosure. That list was led by Stockton, Calif. and the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in Florida.
NVDL: Is the US going into a recession? Yes, no, maybe? Actually, there's no question about it.
Warnings for a Heavily Sedated Planet
Humans are teetering out of balance on a smorgasbord of overprescribed or abused drugs
In five years the global market for pharmaceuticals is estimated to top $1 trillion. Self-medication (over the counter medication) was valued at $90 billion in 2007, but is projected to increase to $95 billion in 2008 and to reach $135 billion in 2013.
While generic prescription drugs demonstrate the highest growth rate, the lion's share of the world's drug market belongs to branded prescription drugs, worth an estimated $553 billion this year. This in itself is illuminating.
According to The Guardian's Sarah Boseley: "Anxiety and stress have become acceptable diseases of the late 20th and 21st centuries, linked to fast lifestyles and taxing jobs … 80% of GPs believe they are writing too many prescriptions for the SSRIs (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors), as the class of drugs made famous by Prozac is known."
Boseley, referring to a survey performed Dr. Foster (an independent medical research company), believes "the lack of other forms of help for those suffering from mild depression and stress leaves [doctors] no choice [but to prescribe antidepressants]."
This means that doctors rather than patients are behind a worrying mindset: treating symptoms with drugs rather than changing or even understanding the underlying thought and behavior patterns behind chemical changes in the brain.
Modern Mindset
While doctors certainly have a stake in culpability, the modern mindset of ordinary citizens is no less questionable. The average person is beset with troubling habits and delusions. It is primarily our narcissism that drives selfish and shortsighted short-term behavior. The result is that most people dwell in a fugue, a fog of unrealistic hopes, wishes and ambitions.
The Internet is an enabler for many of these fantasies, but instead of connecting people, most remain disconnected, isolated and disassociated.
More.
NVDL: I wrote this article really to address one thing that I thought few Peak Oil writers have specifically addressed. That the majority of the western world's intelligentsia (and the wealthy people) are lost in a chemical fugue (either anti-depressants, or everyday chemicals like aspirins, caffeine etc) which makes us moody and irrational. Many others use leisure time and weekends to escape reality - consuming alcohol, marijuna or magic mushrooms. Those not busy with these feel-good chemical games are invested in religion - meaning very few are conscious or aware of actual reality other than in an abstract sense. This means we are a long long way from even beginning to deal with reality - but reality (in the form of resource depletion - this includes basics like food and ordinary energy) is ready to deal with us.
In five years the global market for pharmaceuticals is estimated to top $1 trillion. Self-medication (over the counter medication) was valued at $90 billion in 2007, but is projected to increase to $95 billion in 2008 and to reach $135 billion in 2013.
While generic prescription drugs demonstrate the highest growth rate, the lion's share of the world's drug market belongs to branded prescription drugs, worth an estimated $553 billion this year. This in itself is illuminating.
According to The Guardian's Sarah Boseley: "Anxiety and stress have become acceptable diseases of the late 20th and 21st centuries, linked to fast lifestyles and taxing jobs … 80% of GPs believe they are writing too many prescriptions for the SSRIs (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors), as the class of drugs made famous by Prozac is known."
Boseley, referring to a survey performed Dr. Foster (an independent medical research company), believes "the lack of other forms of help for those suffering from mild depression and stress leaves [doctors] no choice [but to prescribe antidepressants]."
This means that doctors rather than patients are behind a worrying mindset: treating symptoms with drugs rather than changing or even understanding the underlying thought and behavior patterns behind chemical changes in the brain.
Modern Mindset
While doctors certainly have a stake in culpability, the modern mindset of ordinary citizens is no less questionable. The average person is beset with troubling habits and delusions. It is primarily our narcissism that drives selfish and shortsighted short-term behavior. The result is that most people dwell in a fugue, a fog of unrealistic hopes, wishes and ambitions.
The Internet is an enabler for many of these fantasies, but instead of connecting people, most remain disconnected, isolated and disassociated.
More.
NVDL: I wrote this article really to address one thing that I thought few Peak Oil writers have specifically addressed. That the majority of the western world's intelligentsia (and the wealthy people) are lost in a chemical fugue (either anti-depressants, or everyday chemicals like aspirins, caffeine etc) which makes us moody and irrational. Many others use leisure time and weekends to escape reality - consuming alcohol, marijuna or magic mushrooms. Those not busy with these feel-good chemical games are invested in religion - meaning very few are conscious or aware of actual reality other than in an abstract sense. This means we are a long long way from even beginning to deal with reality - but reality (in the form of resource depletion - this includes basics like food and ordinary energy) is ready to deal with us.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Focus (PHOTOGRAPHY)
Don't leave me hanging
In a city so dead
Held up so high
On such a breakable thread
You were all the things I thought I knew
And I thought we could be
[Chorus:]
You were everything, everything that I wanted
We were meant to be, supposed to be, but we lost it
And all of the memories, so close to me, just fade away
All this time you were pretending
So much for my happy ending
Oh oh, oh oh, oh oh...
You've got your dumb friends
I know what they say
They tell you I'm difficult
But so are they
But they don't know me
Do they even know you?
All the things you hide from me
All the shit that you do [CD version]
All the stuff that you do [radio edited version]
You were all the things I thought I knew
And I thought we could be
[Chorus]
It's nice to know that you were there
Thanks for acting like you cared
And making me feel like I was the only one
It's nice to know we had it all
Thanks for watching as I fall
And letting me know we were done
Music Videos by VideoCure
The Tanking of the SA Economy
Image above shows those areas in the US taking the most strain. In SA we'll see a similar pattern. Faroff, smaller communities in rural areas will struggle. Upington, Kimberley, Beautfort West, Victoria West, De Aar and Middelburg. Too large areas will place heavy strain of local resources, especially water and topsoil.
The SARB raised interest rates an academic .5%. Many expected double that. The reason for this small even arbitrary change is that the governor knows full well that expenditure is due to be restrained anyway... Do you think the 50c increase we paid for this month reflects current oil prices. Not even close. It reflects oil prices somewhere around...er...$105, if that. So we have a long way to go before we're at an equilibrium level, and governments coffers are running low in the meantime. To get from $105 to $135 will take around 6 successive 50 cent increases, which means R13 per litre by Christmas. Probably by then the oil price will be $150. And in 2009 we will see $200.
In the same way that thousands of motorists rush on the eve of an oil price hike, entire governments and large corporates (like airlines) are buying huge oil future contracts in order to hedge against higher prices. That sort of behaviour leads to hoarding - at national level, and the result of this is demand spikes, which lead to shortages. We are very close to shortages now.
When shortages hit, markets will panic, buying as much as they can, exhausting their credit in order to keep their economies turning. Despite what the experts say, demand destruction won't happen for oil prices because we are both addicted and critically dependent on fuel. We can anticipate oil going over $200 to $300, probably even $900 eventually. The simply result is that these prices will break the world economy, and shatter the financial system.
And what flows out of this is this question: which is preferable, electricity or fuel?
The answer is probably electricity, as we need it to run critical systems like heating and refrigeration, along with municipal systems (sanitation works etc). And while the lights are on there is still some prospects for commerce. Probably, we will face fuel shortages first. Those living far from work will simply not be able to participate in the system. The most vulnerable are poor rural communities. Farming might save these, but it's unlikely as they will need good capital for the short term to operate machinery. Of course, future farming will not involve harvesters at all. It will be organic, and difficult, as we will no longer use fertilizers and pesticides as we do now. Crop failures in future will be an annual threat. Hunger is probably the greatest threat facing people today.
Moving on, for the short term, expect to see retractable steel spikes installed at petrol stations around the country. The trend has started for fuel theft, as people become more desperate to function. You'll see more vehicles stranded or abandoned at the side of the road. Advertisers will try to sell cars with 'free fuel' for the first 130 000km (like BMW), or companies like JOBing will provide free petrol. None of this addresses the problem - we need to be using less fuel. We need to be more efficient, but even more than that, we need to fundamentally change our living arrangements. Fundamentally change the architecture of how we live, move around, what work we do.
The world is about to become a much larger, and yes, scarier place, again. It's reverse globalisation. You didn't really think this extravagance could continue unabated, on and on for generation after generation? Globalisation had a season at best during human history,and that season is rapidly moving towards autumn. We've experienced unprecedented wealth at individual level for a long time. Not everyone benefited - in fact most didn't - but never before did human beings - ordinary people, enjoy such access to such wealth and prosperity as they do now. They will never again. Because there will never again be such a wealth of abundant energy to exploit, and it will never be cheap. Because it was cheap, we were able to live in an almost magical, mythical arrangement where each person lived on a caricature of country life - a plot of land, with a home and a garden, connected by vast roadways that converged on cities of gleaming buildings. Only with cheap abundant resources was this possible.
Now those resources are no longer abundant, or cheap, or easy to find, refine or extract. That might not be much of a conundrum except that before the advent of the oil era, we numbered 7 times less than we do now. It's not unreasonable to suggest that the new equilibrium level for Earth's human population needs to be pre-oil. That's about 1 billion people. We're at 7 now. And most economists and social experts will tell you, equilibrium for complex systems that overshoot isn't a civilised process. It's a brutal crash, an over-correction that is bruising, to say the least.
If you don't believe me, it's fine. But after the 6th consecutive petrol price hike (from now to December) you won't have to, because all of this will be well underway.
De-portalization and Internet revenues
NVDL: De-portalization is about users taking control not the publishers.
This post is a little more philosophical than most that you will see here. It provides a little bit of background as to why edgeio is in the business of bringing together, organizing and distributing listings to the edge of the network. In short it is because we believe that the Internet is moving away from big centralized portals, which have gathered the lions share of Internet traffic, towards a pattern where traffic is generally much flatter. The mountains, if you will, continue to exist. But the foothills advance and take up more of the overall pie. Fred Wilson had a post earlier this week about the de-portalization of the Internet which is essentially making the same point when seen from the point of view of Yahoo.
Update: 11am Pacific, Sunday 10 December
Several commentators are seeing the word “de-portalization” (first coined by Fred Wilson) and reading “end of portals”. To be clear, and apologies if I wasn’t already, de-portalization represents a change in the relative weight of portals in a traffic sense, and the emergence of what I call the “foothills” as a major source of traffic. This will affect money flows. Portals will remain both large and will continue to grow. But relativeley less than the traffic in the foothills. The foothills will monetize under greater control of its publishers and the dollar value of its traffic is already large and will get much larger.
The following 3 graphics illustrate what we believe has happened already and is likely to continue.
The first picture is a rough depiction of Internet traffic before the flattening
The second picture is a rough depiction of today - with the mountains still evident, but much less so
The third picture is where these trends are leading. To a flatter world of more evenly disributed traffic.
Some of the consequences of this trend are profound. Here are our top 10 things to watch as de-portalization continues..
1. The revenue growth that has characterized the Internet since 1994 will continue. But more and more of the revenue will be made in the foothills, not the mountains.
2. If the major destination sites want to participate in it they will need to find a way to be involved in the traffic that inhabits the foothills.
3. Widgets are a symptom of this need to embed yourself in the distributed traffic of the foothills.
4. Portals that try to widgetize the foothills will do less well than those who truly embrace distributed content, but better than those who ignore the trends.
5. Every pair of eyeballs in the foothills will have many competing advertisers looking to connect with them. Publishers will benefit from this.
6. Because of this competition the dollar value of the traffic that is in the foothills will be (already is) vastly more than a generic ad platform like Google Adsense or Yahoo’s Panama can realize. Techcrunch ($180,000 last month according to the SF Chronicle) is an example of how much more money a publisher who sells advertising and listings to target advertisers can make than when in the hands of an advertiser focused middleman like Google.
7. Publisher driven revenue models will increasingly replace middlemen. There will be no successful advertiser driven models in the foothills, only publisher centric models. Successful platform vendors will put the publisher at the center of the world in a sellers market for eyeballs. There will be more publishers able to make $180,000 a month.
8. Portals will need to evolve into platform companies in order to participate in a huge growth of Internet revenues. Service to publishers will be a huge part of this. Otherwise they will end up like Infospace, or maybe Infoseek. Relics of the past.
9. Search however will become more important as content becomes more distributed. Yet it will command less and less a proportion of the growing Internet traffic.
10. Smart companies will (a) help content find traffic by enabling its distribution. (b) help users find content that is widely dispersed by providing great search. (c) help the publishers in the rising foothills maximize the value of their publications.
Obama launches online campaign against 'smears'
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Democratic White House hopeful Barack Obama launched a new website Thursday devoted to dousing "smears" against the first African-American with a serious shot at the presidency.
ADVERTISEMENT |
The site at www.fightthesmears.com debunks false rumors doing the rounds of the Internet and right-wing media outlets -- including one recent assertion that Obama's wife Michelle has been caught on tape slurring white people.
Obama's main campaign website already had a fact-check section to refute rumors such as the Christian candidate is a secret Muslim. But aides said the new site went further in inviting supporters to spread the word.
"We created an interactive tool to allow our supporters to fight back against these smears in the same way that they received them -- on the Internet," campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor said.
Mixed Emotions
Interesting day. Interest rates went up by a measly .5%. The reserve Bank knows that consumers are going to be crushed by rising petrol prices for the next 6 months, probably the next 36 months consecutively - at least until the economy implodes. My aunt also called me and said Peter Pickford had seen my photographs hanging in the gallery at Veldrif and said they were good - good composition, balanced use of light and color. He said I have a 'good eye.' Nice to hear that from one of SA's best photographers. My aunt also says she has submitted a book - ANGOLA - to a publisher. A work of fiction. Interesting.
Also had a great session in the gym. Weight is 83.3kg. Spent 10 minutes at HR 130, 10 at 140 and 10 at 150-160 before winding down over 10 minutes back to 130. Then I did 12 pullups.
Yesterday I noticed two different newspapers, the Beeld and Citizen both reporting on the Million Man March - in Beeld: Genoeg is Genoeg. In the Citizen: Enough is Enough. We're still a long way from a turning point in strain levels.
Also had a great session in the gym. Weight is 83.3kg. Spent 10 minutes at HR 130, 10 at 140 and 10 at 150-160 before winding down over 10 minutes back to 130. Then I did 12 pullups.
Yesterday I noticed two different newspapers, the Beeld and Citizen both reporting on the Million Man March - in Beeld: Genoeg is Genoeg. In the Citizen: Enough is Enough. We're still a long way from a turning point in strain levels.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Why the world needs Batman
“If I could kill him with my bare hands, I would.”
Anger is in the air. A seven-year-old girl with wheat-blonde hair and blue eyes is abducted, raped, murdered and dumped in a culvert outside the city’s Fresh Produce Market. Over the course of a year her 26 year old murderer shows no remorse, no emotion other than appearing to be enjoying the attention of the courts. People on the scene are reduced to tears. Protests ensue, with ordinary people, headmasters, rugby players, trade union officials, celebrities and politicians laying flowers of remembrance and holding placards pleading for the death penalty. A professional athlete steps forward, saying: “We are sick and tired of crime. The death penalty should definitely come back.” One leader says, “We have insufficient deterrents in the justice system.” Another says, “We have a sick society.”
But does anyone do anything?
The sickness spreads, with sickos making newspaper headlines every day. Criminals prey unabated on the weak, breaking into homes, sodomising in the dirt of church yards, shooting, torturing, killing. Distraught survivors uproot and leave with what remains of their families. In a double murder, double sodomy case, the villain enters a packed court to cheers and applause. The judge says to the two faced 23 year old baddie, who smiles often during sentencing, “Sometimes I got the impression that you were proud of what happened…One moment there is a friendly man, the next moment a monster”. The Jekyll and Hyde criminal is sentenced to two life sentences. The murderer’s father, a retired head of the local prison, holds a press conference outside the court to assert his son’s ‘innocence’. Does anyone oppose this insanity, this mockery of justice?
And then there are serial killers, like Albert Fish. An American sado-masochistic paedophile, a torture murderer, serial killer and cannibal. He would rape young children, boys and girls, then cut up their bodies and eat all except the children’s bones and their heads. What terror is there out there, to terrorise the likes of these?
Pop Psychology
The postmodern mindset attempts to deal with a world that is fragmenting, disassembling and disconnecting either by doubting reality, or conveniently employing disassociating or compartmentalising cognitive processes. Compartmentalisation is a defence mechanism. It allows the mind to function by shutting off certain processes (and memories). All of us do this every day, by blocking out bad news. The result is a dualistic perception of reality. Disassociating interrupts the process of causality and consequence. Hence, postmodern men might feel untroubled by the habitual anti-social behaviours from their dark side – such as chronic alcoholism, or consuming hardcore porn – in order to pull off playing perfect gentlemen to their spouses and families.
The Dark Mythos
How does Bruce deal with this stuff? He’s anti-social, he keeps up some measure of appearances as a gracious host, but it is obvious that he prefers his own company in order to brood; and he needs plenty of space to vent his vigilantism. In virtually all the recent Batman movies, we see Bruce experiencing flashbacks. He is obviously troubled by the long ago barbs of the past. Is this a sign of a mental disorder? Sure enough, Batman’s creators saw fit to add Arkham Asylum into the mythos, a place where not only the insane but the criminally insane end up (and often escape).
Arkham Asylum’s alter ego is Wayne Manor. And even the manor itself is built on dark and hollow foundations; the site is condemned by the municipal authorities for its chronic sinkhole problems. And like many men, Bruce Wayne spends inordinate amounts of time down there, in his cave sunk below ground, below what we can see, and this transforms him. Revenge has taken over his whole life. It cannot be healthy when dark obsessions consume a man. This doesn’t convey heroism, but a mental disorder. Our fascination with this fatal flaw reveals the extent of Batman’s darkness in us.
A large proportion – 1.2% (or 3.2 million) – of the US population are suffering from the mental disorder known as Bipolar Disorder. The disorder is characterised by:
1. Increased energy and restlessness
2. Being easily distracted
3. Little sleep needed
4. Unrealistic beliefs in one's abilities and powers
5. Poor judgement
6. Spending sprees
7. A lasting period of behaviour that is different from usual
8. Increased sexual drive
9. Abuse of drugs, particularly cocaine, alcohol, and sleeping medications
10. Provocative, intrusive, or aggressive behaviour
11. Denial that anything is wrong
Some points explain Batman’s behaviour. Arguably, many do not.
Somewhere in the darkness of vaporised buildings, a smouldering man and a student who chokes to death on dirt are hints of the dissolution of America, cracks appearing on the mighty machine-heart that drives commerce in our world.
In Batman: The Killing Joke,1988, the Joker says to Batman “…there’s no difference between me and everyone else. All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy. That’s how far the world is from where I am. Just one bad day…You have to keep pretending that life makes sense, that there’s a point to all this struggling."
Bruce’s Bad Day
Bruce’s father, Thomas Wayne, testified against a gangster, and this provoked the killing services of Jo Chill. Chill, recruited by the selfsame crime lord, was no more than a petty thief suffering in the growing economic depression that was gripping Gotham’s streets. The little boy Bruce saw his parents gunned down in Gotham’s ‘Crime Alley’. There and then the child vowed "by the spirits of my parents [I will] avenge their deaths by spending the rest of my life warring on all criminals.”
Is Batman motivated solely by revenge? In the June/July 1948 Chill in Batman #47, the child’s resolve, and the extent of that revenge, is put to the test. Batman finally seizes Chill, but Chill’s own men kill their leader, having found out that he was the cause for Batman’s ruinous crusade against crime. Frank Miller’s version has a young Bruce Wayne waiting outside the courtroom with a gun, but an assassin gets to Chill first, depriving Bruce of bloody satisfaction. How many of us have fantasised the same thing, when courts drag on, and villains are simply incarcerated or set free despite their heinous crimes?
When Bruce Wayne later meets the Falcone, the mob boss informs Bruce that he and Chill were cellmates once, and that Chill bragged that Thomas Wayne "begged...like a dog" before his death. Falcone manufactures this epithet to intimidate the young Bruce Wayne. We can imagine that instead of being intimidated, flames of anger fire up inside Bruce. Batman’s purpose is deeper and braver than just vengeance. We empathise with his attempt to prevent anyone else from ever experiencing what he had to endure as a child. But that’s not all.
Good versus Evil, and Us versus Them
The tragedy in the alley – it is now abundantly clear – lead to a Damascus Moment. The child’s decision shaped the entire life to follow, a life of struggle: good against evil. It is no accident that Batman has enjoyed his most popular support when the world has been unusually gripped by fearful insecurities The battles in Batman (against a series of sickos) reflect a growing unease in society, based on the perception of a growing threat. War and crime infestation underwrite Batman’s success, and today the tide is filled with the flotsam of both.
In her article on Postmodernism and the Batman Phenomenon, Monica Hafer writes: “To survive, the times demanded a righteous sense of Us vs. Them. In Batman’s world…the demarcation line between good and evil was clearly drawn.”
And at no time in world history is this more evidence than during times of war. When Batman was first introduced in 1939 immediately prior to World War II, fears were particularly manifest. Later, Batman’s star rose to successive Zeniths, in lockstep with the first Gulf War in the early 90’s and the present Gulf War, which started in 2003). Happier times saw comics in general struggle, but two fared better than most because Batman and Superman were able to change as times changed. Although Batman is ultimately a symbol of survival, his worst enemy, his greatest threat appears to be widespread happiness.
Batman Goes Camp
One of the happiest and trickiest periods for Batman was the 60’s. In order to avoid termination, Batman was put through the ignominy of camp. Alfred was killed off, Aunt Harriet was shipped in as a motherly replacement, sidekicks were added (Robin, Batwoman and Batgirl) and the mythos was made lighter and more family-oriented. It wasn’t Batman, but the mainstream loved it.
“There’s no escape. It’s all over the place. Madness! Supermadness! The entertainment world offers it on all sides, and the public gobbles it up. Batman conquers TV. Kids swing Batman capes in the backyard, and Bat products are everywhere" March 11th issue of Life magazine
1966--When the spacecraft Gemini 8, with astronauts Neil Armstrong and David Scott aboard, was forced to make an emergency landing, ABC … interrupted …”Batman"…to cover the unfolding news story. The interruption caused public outrage from viewers… Telephones in New York and Los Angeles were flooded for hours with complaints. – Trivia Library.com http://www.trivia-library.com/a/history-of-shows-and-major-events-in-television-in-the-1960s-part-2.htm
Darkness Falls
Towards the end of the Vietnam War this light-hearted camp style became a dead end for the Batman franchise, and Batman was once again re-invented. He became a darker character, with many of the original elements brought back, and reinforced. Robin, by popular vote, was killed off. The evolution culminated in Frank Miller’s Batman. Miller brought a 55 year old Batman out of retirement in The Dark Knight Returns (1986); this was 7 difficult years after the Iranian Revolution in real time. Miller’s Bruce Wayne decides to “turn fear against those who prey on the fearful” (Batman Begins).
How do people respond to fear? Batman’s response to the death of his parent is a powerful sense of duty. Consequence and causality are not often seen in comics and seldom in real life. The way some people decide to become doctors or teachers or professional tennis players, the boy Bruce insists on turning the tragic death of his parents into a life’s work. Bruce Wayne’s mission to save the city is Christ-like in some ways, but it’s also a bloodier, more violent version of his father’s work. This departure from his father’s philanthropy has unsettling consequences, not least of all, for the Dark Knight himself.
Secrets and Dysfunction
We see that because he hasn’t let go, his love life suffers. The millionaire is distracted by his obsessions, which sabotages his ability to be a stable partner in a long-term relationship. The inability to deal with pain has created an additional side to him, a dark side, which he keeps a secret. Obsessive secretiveness has made him a dysfunctional partner.
Bruce Wayne deals with the dark’s blurry dissonance by getting into a costume, a dark shape with pointed ears and jagged lines. He mirrors the violence of the perpetrators he pursues. Batman’s schizophrenia may stem from the fact that he was created by two men, but the legacy of only one survived. Bill Kane denied credit to the Batman’s original writer until his death. Did the same thing happen between Batman and Bruce? Did childish wishes for power and control over others doom Bruce Wayne to a dark partnership with a doppelganger he’d be forced to deny for the rest of his life? And are we childish to be fascinated by him?
The writer of Batman: Detective Comics, Chuck Dixon, interprets the Batman mythos as follows: “I think that, because he suffered his great trauma as a child, he reacted as a child. Putting on a costume, fighting crime at night in the guise of an animal—that’s part of what makes him so enduring, but it’s such a simple, childish reaction to what happened to him. He responded in that horrible moment and it set the course for his life: I won’t be afraid; I will become scarier than they are. It was the wish of a child.” The fact that Batman’s gadgets, his over-the-top batmobile, batboat, and batwing are sometimes referred to as his ‘toys’ (especially by the Joker) reinforce this image of a dark, intimidating child-man.
The World Wants Vigilante-Justice
Die-hard fans applaud Bruce’s application of vigilantism through his alter ego. Even though they know the philanthropist remains troubled throughout his life, in a sense, Batman is probably the most realistic superhero. Though flawed, although he suffers despair like we all do, he uses intellect, science and all his physical and mental faculties to triumph over the encroaches of the dark. Batman, in effect, is the master of the dark, which is allegory for mastery over death itself.
Alan Grant, a creative contributor for Batman: Shadow of the Bat calls Batman one of the most heroic characters ever created. Batman is a mortal man trying to address the problems of his community. Grant says: He is perhaps the only genuine hero amongst all of them. People say Batman is this dark, vengeance-driven, obsessed character, but that’s not Batman in my eyes. That’s just the fuel which drives Batman…but what makes him Batman is a decision. He took a decision to be a good guy… He is a self-made character. He didn’t get superpowers, he’s not a cyborg, he made a choice to be what he is... What defines his character is his decision to do something.
"He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster."
-Friedrich Nietzsche
And so how does a mortal man become a superhero, or a monster? Batman does not carry a gun, or lethal weapons of any kind. The weapon he embodies is the instrument of fear. But it’s not just the mask and the fear factor that give Batman his advantage. His suitably armoured costume reflects society’s penchant for hi-tech state of the art gadgets. These sophisticated weapons systems are predicated on Bruce’s access to the world’s most secret military weapons (Wayne Industries sells armaments to the US Department of Defence).
Items of the Bat’s weaponry – gas capsules, a rebreather, monofilament cord jumplines, batarangs and grapnels – are docked in his utility harness. His points-weighted cape and the suit are lined with triple-weave Kevlar, and both are covered in fire-resistant Nomex. He has a radio link to the Batcave and night vision inserted in his cowl. Once Batman is prepped and in uniform, he enters the bleak and menacing backdrop of Gotham’s shadow world, with its cathedrals, tall sparkling spires and labyrinthine alleyways. Batman’s modus operandi is to scare the bejesus out of his opponents, and when he engages with them he often cripples or disfigures them for life.
For Bruce Wayne, Batman is a drug, a fiery being that consumes him, as Monica Hafer explains. “The pressure to take action against the social chaos is unbearable. [Bruce] says of his Batman identity, ‘He tricks me . . . when the night is long and my will is weak. He struggles, relentlessly, hatefully, to be free". And Bruce is addressed directly in the comic by his Batman persona, who says to him, "You are nothing—a hollow shell, a rusty trap that cannot hold me—smoldering, I burn you—burning you, I flare, hot and bright and beautiful—you cannot stop me—not with wine or vows or the weight of age—you cannot stop me but still you try—still you run”. …Only an adult mind could truly appreciate those feelings of age and of the longing that is expressed here for the vigor of youth.
Nothing is created in a vacuum. The Dark is a sinister and dangerous place. Black flame engulfs the timbers of good men, apathy and blame infects the common citizens. Every day the poor and the weak cry out against the growing sweep of criminal infestation, but their lamb-like bleats are choked by the maniacal cackling of a screwed up world losing its mind. Will you go alone into the dark, and make a difference? Will you help us?
In the deep darkness, anger, pain and fear congeal into a jagged shape that masks the contours of our Vengeance. “Batman has a personality and purpose all his own, a definable core. He’s neither petty nor petulant. He’s no whiner; there’s no trace of self-pity in his soul. He’s smart. He’s noble. And most important: he’s big. His passions are grand. Even his unhappiness is not depressing, but a brooding, Wagnerian torment. And his triumphs are Olympian.” [Frank Miller’s prologue to The Dark Knight Returns]
We wish that a greater terror was out there to terrorise the monsters of the dark. We wish an eye moved through the sky, like the batsignal, that could elicit a terror greater than the terror that lurks in our streets.
The world needs Batman because it shares the deep black bruises of a painful past. We are voyeurs in his violent vigilantism. We dwell in dark fantasies where fears of the future are bullied into the shadows. But it is our very failure to let go of past pain that lie beneath our fears of the future. If Batman epitomises fear, then surely through his story we see that there is nothing to fear but what we fear to face in ourselves. Like him, we run from the raw memories. Batman is the victim of his failure to deal with personal pain. He is not the champion of fear that he pretends to be. When we cannot let go the dark of our hearts bursts into black flame. These flames are the shadows that haunt and burn the streets of the Great Black Global Gotham that the world has become.
Now, will you go alone into the dark dystopia and make a difference?
Good Morning World
Whatever time it is, and wherever you are, a very good morning.
I think it's time that we start to establish the rules of the game and the game plan for the next few months. What follows are a few graphic announcements that will affect you wherever you live in the world. Don't read further if you suffer from Depression, nausea or a weak bladder.
1) In 3 - 6 months we will begin to see fuel shortages around the world. This is Phase 1 of a serious succession of ongoing breakdowns, that start at oil supply breakdown, and lead to supply line breakdowns right down the line. That means if you've ordered a book on Amazon, of are expecting to get the season's latest fashions in a few weeks, you might want to start preparing for disappointment. It also means food - fruits, canned stuff that is imported - might not make it to the shelves for a while. Those products that are absent...get used to them not being there.
2) South Africans will never see the promised Pebble Bed nuclear reactors come online. The system is too stressed and it's happened too late. The lights will flicker this winter, and by the end of the year, systems will go down for longer periods. We will also not see the Soccer World Cup. That much ought to be obvious by now, but it will be a foregone conclusion by Christmas this year.
Part of the reason we won't be able to keep the lights on is that coal is going to be just as big a problem as oil, meaning fewer households will be up and running to afford to pay for expensive electricity. Unfortunately, those homes glowing in the dark will make brilliant targets for masses of bitter and bitterly cold or otherwise disenfranchised people who suddenly have had to go without. It is not a long road from blaming foreign nationals, to blaming (and butchering) the rich.
Also, by 2010 airlines will not be in business to even get the soccer crowds here. Blame our geography at the ass end of Africa, but it's not going to happen.
Instead, Xenophobia is going to spread as poverty spreads. We'll call it by different names, but the results will be the same. The poor venting their frustrations.
Quiet, empty places like Namibia or defensible farmsteads might be a good idea to ride out the storm. Australia and Canada are likely to be place millions will converge upon.
A quick word of advice. When you see waves of Xenophobia/violence mounting, pay attention. You might have to get out at very short notice, and if you leave too late, you will not find a highway without obstructions and survival will quickly become very difficult and problematic. Use Google Alerts early on to keep up to date on up to the minute news regarding 'violence mobs South Africa'. It may also be good to get yourself a weapon. I don't advocate using weapons, but we're heading for a place that is completely divorced from what we imagine to be 'Normal'.
Part of the reason we won't be able to keep the lights on is that coal is going to be just as big a problem as oil, meaning fewer households will be up and running to afford to pay for expensive electricity. Unfortunately, those homes glowing in the dark will make brilliant targets for masses of bitter and bitterly cold or otherwise disenfranchised people who suddenly have had to go without. It is not a long road from blaming foreign nationals, to blaming (and butchering) the rich.
Also, by 2010 airlines will not be in business to even get the soccer crowds here. Blame our geography at the ass end of Africa, but it's not going to happen.
Instead, Xenophobia is going to spread as poverty spreads. We'll call it by different names, but the results will be the same. The poor venting their frustrations.
Quiet, empty places like Namibia or defensible farmsteads might be a good idea to ride out the storm. Australia and Canada are likely to be place millions will converge upon.
A quick word of advice. When you see waves of Xenophobia/violence mounting, pay attention. You might have to get out at very short notice, and if you leave too late, you will not find a highway without obstructions and survival will quickly become very difficult and problematic. Use Google Alerts early on to keep up to date on up to the minute news regarding 'violence mobs South Africa'. It may also be good to get yourself a weapon. I don't advocate using weapons, but we're heading for a place that is completely divorced from what we imagine to be 'Normal'.
2) Say goodbye - forever - to air travel. It's started already, and it may take another 6-12 months for the airlines to figure this out. Essentially, once oil topped $120, airlines lost their licenses to operate profitably. If you find you're very frustrated by that, get someone to kickstart the rusting train wrecks in a nearby yard. By the way, good luck with that.
3) Within the next year (maybe 24 months), the stock markets - and that essentially means the financial system - will crash. Banks are starting to go. If you have money in bank stocks, get it out. Also, if you've been saving up for some sort of big world trip, some sort of amazing holiday bor honeymoon, I suggest you take it now. (Yes, today, and don't spend more than a few weeks there or you won't be able to make it back). Right now oil is trading at $135, and R/$ exceeds R8.
4) The implications of 3) are essentially that subsequent to the crash, you will only be able to hold onto your job for a few days, maybe a few weeks. And that means within a year, 2 at the most, most of you reading this, will no longer be working and you will never again see the prospects for doing the sort of work you're doing now again in your lifetime. Some might be pretty happy about this.
5) The countdown to one of the worst and most destructive wars has begun. It will probably involve Iran as America begins to realise the end of their world as they know it. There will be a lot of anger and blame as suburbia implodes in America, and people will not worry so much about the ethics of war this time. For the first time though, war will also cross over the Atlantic and onto America soil, as both China and Russia - becoming aware of how serious the situation is - try to push America back into their backyard.
6) There will be other side-effects as the global economy convulses on the vomit of Capitalism. Crime. Disease. Municipal systems not working (dirty water). H5N1 (or H7N1) will use human beings to host their foray across the world. Unfortunately, the background to all this will be some pretty awful weather that will get progressively worse.
7) Expect those around you, and you, and a lot of these systems around us - malls, fast food joints, skyscrapers - expect all of this to be trimmed down to size as the world goes on a very strict diet.
Learn to adapt. And have faith. We can survive anthing if we care enough about ourselves and others. And once we accept what is happening, and learn how to live, life will become a little easier again. But it will take a while.
Learn to adapt. And have faith. We can survive anthing if we care enough about ourselves and others. And once we accept what is happening, and learn how to live, life will become a little easier again. But it will take a while.
Financial Indicators
| All Share | 30585.510 |  | 1.49% |
| Gold | 877.17 |  | 1.09% |
| Platinum | 2027.50 | | 2.40% |
| Brent Crude Oil | 133.99 | | 2.27% |
| R153 | 11.740 | | 0.17% |
| Rand - $ | 8.0167 | | 1.22% |
Jim Kunstler on Comedy Central (VIDEO)
He is, quite simply, one of the most provocative American thinkers and writers alive today. He is James Howard Kunstler, author most recently of the novel, World Made by Hand.
In recent years, Mr. Kunstler has become best known for making the case that "peak oil" is here, now, the moment when we begin the second half of the oil age. The ride down the backside of the curve will, he argues, be steep, bumpy, and full of dislocations far beyond the minor inconveniences we usually imagine may be associated with higher gasoline prices. Mr. Kunstler lays out this argument, along with often biting, and occasionally hilarious commentary on moden American urban and suburban life, in his weekly blog, a must read for me each Monday.
Recently James passed through Seattle on his national book tour promoting the new novel, and he was kind enough to sit down with us for an interview. Below, we present the 22 minute interview in full. (It is also available at many video server sites on the web often in two parts due to length.)
First, a brief review of his novel. I was eager to see how James would turn his world view of the end of oil into fiction, and the novel succeeded for me in character, setting, and story. Set in the relatively near but indeterminate future, in a small town in upstate New York, we find the townspeople living without cars or internal combustion engines of any kind. Fleeting bursts of electricity serve only to recall tantalizing memories of days gone by, and the characters are generally struggling to remember how to grow food, fix things that are broken, and get by in a world made by hand. They are literally trying to recall a way of life only a generation and half lost in time, yet as distant and difficult to access as the most ancient history.
In order to arrange a world without functioning national or regional government James adds in a cataclysmic event or two on top of an energy crisis and a much hotter world. Taking note of contemporary trends to elevate superstition and spiritualism over science, he brings to the town a spiritual leader and his band of people seeking a peaceful place to make a new life. Much of the story revolves around the difficulties of integrating several alternative lifestyles among bands of former townspeople and newcomers attempting, simply, to survive in a new reality.
While Mr. Kuntsler takes the logic of the end of oil to extreme ends in order to create a dramatic story, he never-the-less creates a plausible world. Entering into that world you are forced to take stock of your own knowledge and skills as you imagine how you would fit in, were the world to step back in time. Would you, as many characters do, fail to cope with the loss of much of modernity, or would you, like the heroes of the story, settle into the steady rebuilding of life and community?
Glen Hiemstra Interview with James Howard Kunstler
Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com in studio with James Howard Kunstler, Author of "The World Made by Hand" from Glen Hiemstra on Vimeo.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Book Review: Profit from the Peak
One of the threats from peak oil is the potential for financial ruin as oil prices run up. If you were invested in airline or automotive stocks through the recent run up in oil prices, you have probably seen those investments lose a lot of value. If, on the other hand, you were invested in oil futures, oil companies, or oil field service companies - you have probably seen those investments gain ground even as the overall stock market slumped. The idea of profiting from the peak - an event that is likely to cause misery for those who are least prepared - may seem an odd combination. It almost feels like "Profit from Homelessness." But the reality is that unless you understand how energy prices affect the prospects of various sectors, you are placing yourself at a financial disadvantage.
More.
Rising Gas Prices Finally Kill The Once-Mighty SUV
After reigning supreme for the better part of two decades, the mighty SUV has at long last fallen, done in by mounting fuel prices that have consumers embracing small cars and automakers scrambling to build them.
Nissan pounded the latest nail into the coffin today when it followed General Motors, Ford and Toyota in saying it will scale back production of trucks and SUVs in favor of fuel-efficient cars now that the bottom has fallen out of light truck market. Car sales, which accounted for half of the industry's volume last year, hit 57 percent last month while truck sales fell by double-digits to their lowest mark since 1995.
Need more proof the SUV is a goner? Ford's venerable F150 pickup ended its 17-year-run as the best-selling vehicle in America last month, dethroned by the Honda Civic and three other Japanese sedans. General Motors is looking to unload Hummer, the epitome of gas-guzzling excess, after sales fell 60 percent in May. The number of Civics sold in one month exceed the number of Hummers GM expects to sell all year.
"The SUV as a lifestyle choice, as a personal statement, is dead," Aaron Bragman, an industry analyst at Global Insight, tells Wired.com. "People are downsizing from their big trucks to smaller cars."
What's surprising isn't that SUVs are dead, but how quickly they fell. More.
NVDL: True. I wrote about the death of SUV's in January 2006, an article published in Heartland when oil prices were around $50.
Nissan pounded the latest nail into the coffin today when it followed General Motors, Ford and Toyota in saying it will scale back production of trucks and SUVs in favor of fuel-efficient cars now that the bottom has fallen out of light truck market. Car sales, which accounted for half of the industry's volume last year, hit 57 percent last month while truck sales fell by double-digits to their lowest mark since 1995.
Need more proof the SUV is a goner? Ford's venerable F150 pickup ended its 17-year-run as the best-selling vehicle in America last month, dethroned by the Honda Civic and three other Japanese sedans. General Motors is looking to unload Hummer, the epitome of gas-guzzling excess, after sales fell 60 percent in May. The number of Civics sold in one month exceed the number of Hummers GM expects to sell all year.
"The SUV as a lifestyle choice, as a personal statement, is dead," Aaron Bragman, an industry analyst at Global Insight, tells Wired.com. "People are downsizing from their big trucks to smaller cars."
What's surprising isn't that SUVs are dead, but how quickly they fell. More.
NVDL: True. I wrote about the death of SUV's in January 2006, an article published in Heartland when oil prices were around $50.
I deserved worse
During my lunch break today I got in my car, and whisked out my cellphone, attempting to connect to someone that I couldn't connect to in the building. We were in mid-chat when I pulled up at an intersection. I noticed, too late that a Metro police vehicle had turned on its lights, and the driver motioned for me to pull over so that I could be drawn and slaughtered financially.
I said to the copper: "Your enthusiasm strikes me as odd. Most people have a pretty lazy attitude to work, but you virtually sprinted from your car to fine me - because it's so dangerous to talk on a cellphone. I just wonder if it's not more dangerous to stop at an intersection, put on your hazardsand so force cars to swerve around you so that you can get your bounty."
This ruse appeared to work. The copper said he wouldn't cite me for my cellphone, but because I wasn't wearing a seatbelt. I could have done worse still - since my license disk had expired.
Since he didn't book me on more charges, and I still drove off with my seatbelt unbuckled (a very sleep deprived day with gym at 5am), it made me think my comment was on the mark. Either that or I am the world's most difficult person to get along with.
I said to the copper: "Your enthusiasm strikes me as odd. Most people have a pretty lazy attitude to work, but you virtually sprinted from your car to fine me - because it's so dangerous to talk on a cellphone. I just wonder if it's not more dangerous to stop at an intersection, put on your hazardsand so force cars to swerve around you so that you can get your bounty."
This ruse appeared to work. The copper said he wouldn't cite me for my cellphone, but because I wasn't wearing a seatbelt. I could have done worse still - since my license disk had expired.
Since he didn't book me on more charges, and I still drove off with my seatbelt unbuckled (a very sleep deprived day with gym at 5am), it made me think my comment was on the mark. Either that or I am the world's most difficult person to get along with.
Very Little Black Stuff (PHOTOGRAPHY)
Consider this:
“As gas prices rise, working less could be the economically rational choice,” said Tim Slack, a sociologist at Louisiana State University who studies rural poverty.
It might also see more of us outside, away from our desks, building muscle tone.
It's too late to apologise - Capitalism Has Failed
Greed is good, except when it's bad. As it turns out people don't know when enough is enough.
Kunstler Quote
We will not believe that this is happening to us, that 200 years of modernity can be brought to its knees by a world-wide power shortage. The survivors will have to cultivate a religion of hope -- that is, a deep and comprehensive belief that humanity is worth carrying on. If there is any positive side to stark changes coming our way, it may be in the benefits of close communal relations, of having to really work intimately (and physically) with our neighbors, to be part of an enterprise that really matters and to be fully engaged in meaningful social enactments instead of being merely entertained to avoid boredom. Years from now, when we hear singing at all, we will hear ourselves, and we will sing with our whole hearts.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
NVDL Streaks by 80 088 (and other stories)
Insight: Oil will move higher
3 homes washed away in Wis.; Midwest rivers swell
I had a dof day today. Just not very sharp. Also received my internet bill.
R2 736.79. No, it's not from porn consumption. I've done a heck of a lot of research on my Batman articles, redone about 3 times. Hopefully not money down the drain, but may well be. Remember I said I CAN'T AFFORD TO BLOG. It's becoming truer than ever.
Planet Of The A--- Scratch that --- Planet of the Narcissists
There was a time where it was dead normal to have one partner your whole life. You encountered a few people of the opposite sex, and any intimacy at all became part and parcel of a marriage. And then you got on with the life task of being a spouse, and a parent, and bringing home the bacon and building a home together. Today it's not unusual for people to have dozens of partners (married or not), and getting divorced and ferrying kids backwards and forwards between spouses is common practise. There's also a clear behaviour going on. Once the kids are away, the games begin again.
We've gotten very used to having our own living space, own car, own this or that. And for that reason, everyone else is secondary. We think nothing now to rescind relationships. We delete people out of our lives with as much afterthought as closing an email or deleting a sms. The virtual world of Facebook becomes a substitute for reality - in fact it's the new reality for some. It's a very low value, low quality existence.
Our society is sick with Narcissism. With the things we accumulate. Our sexuality - what we do with our bodies is another example. If you've ever wondered whether excessive masturbation wasn't a good idea, the answer is, yes. Masturbating excessively is just one form of narcissism. That time spent pleasuring yourself could be better spent walking in nature, or sharing affection with another human being. What is scary is that some people eventually find themselves preferring themselves to others. And we are becoming more and more unpleasant to be around. We're forgetting our manners, because we're not having an awful lot of practise...
A friend of mine told me how he dresses he daughter while she is still under the blankets so she doesn't get cold. I first thought this was spoiling the child terribly. Then I thought: her future husband needs to measure up to a high standard of attentiveness. Of care, and consideration. A parent needs to give their children as much love as they can, and that is the benchmark a future husband will be measured against.
Instead, parents neglect or abandon their children. Is it any wonder that young people jump into relationships satisfied with what little they get, and then after a short period, find themselves alone and unhappy? Because no standard was set, and all that remains is an overwhelming sense of feeling lost and unloved and wanting to belong. There are so many people in this world who choose to take advantage of this in the young and innocent. And they do. Because they feel they deserve everything they can get, on a Planet filled with Narcissists.
There is a cure for our Narcissism. Make living the way we do unaffordable. It's happening right now. There will be plenty of gnashing of teeth in times to come.
We've gotten very used to having our own living space, own car, own this or that. And for that reason, everyone else is secondary. We think nothing now to rescind relationships. We delete people out of our lives with as much afterthought as closing an email or deleting a sms. The virtual world of Facebook becomes a substitute for reality - in fact it's the new reality for some. It's a very low value, low quality existence.
Our society is sick with Narcissism. With the things we accumulate. Our sexuality - what we do with our bodies is another example. If you've ever wondered whether excessive masturbation wasn't a good idea, the answer is, yes. Masturbating excessively is just one form of narcissism. That time spent pleasuring yourself could be better spent walking in nature, or sharing affection with another human being. What is scary is that some people eventually find themselves preferring themselves to others. And we are becoming more and more unpleasant to be around. We're forgetting our manners, because we're not having an awful lot of practise...
A friend of mine told me how he dresses he daughter while she is still under the blankets so she doesn't get cold. I first thought this was spoiling the child terribly. Then I thought: her future husband needs to measure up to a high standard of attentiveness. Of care, and consideration. A parent needs to give their children as much love as they can, and that is the benchmark a future husband will be measured against.
Instead, parents neglect or abandon their children. Is it any wonder that young people jump into relationships satisfied with what little they get, and then after a short period, find themselves alone and unhappy? Because no standard was set, and all that remains is an overwhelming sense of feeling lost and unloved and wanting to belong. There are so many people in this world who choose to take advantage of this in the young and innocent. And they do. Because they feel they deserve everything they can get, on a Planet filled with Narcissists.
There is a cure for our Narcissism. Make living the way we do unaffordable. It's happening right now. There will be plenty of gnashing of teeth in times to come.
Kunstler: A Harsh Season
The banking “industry” slept like a dog through the climax of the political primary season. Meanwhile, the banks sucked in scores of billions in cheap loans from the Federal Reserve, using bundles of devalued-to-worthless “innovative” securities as collateral. This dodge has worked for about three months, allowing them to pay their employees and cover their electric bills, and is now collapsing because American society can’t maintain the flow of repayment on current debts and can’t take on any additional debt – meaning both the regular “churn” of revenue flowing to the banks is impaired at the same time that fees for originating new loans cannot be generated. Uh Oh.
The mainstream though is starting to 'get it'. The front page of the Sunday Times said it best:
It’s Crunch Time: Signs that consumers are not coping (in SA) include:
# Nearly 2000 properties across the country are being auctioned each month;
# Some property sellers are so desperate they are settling for as little as half their asking price; and
# Vehicle repossessions have shot up by 25% — one bank took back 1400 vehicles in the first two months of this year.
Of course, 3 months ago if you were talking about high fuel prices or anything else along those lines you were still being called 'negative'. Now, of course it's too late. You can be positive, great, go for it. But also enjoy saying bye bye to your house, carand the feel good factor that you fought to hard to maintain. But hey, stay positive folks. You'll need to now. And that includes me. My landlady said she will be increasing my rent by R500 to R4000 p.m. Yay.
Out there in the cul-de-sacs and the strip malls, people are months behind in their mortgage payments, maxed out on their plastic, handing over their car keys to the lien-holders, and feeding their kids Spam filets. Truckers get paid less for their loads than the cost of transporting the load. The airlines have financial cancer and will be dead in eighteen months. Container ship costs are heading out-of-sight. Municipalities are going broke. A weekend flood just destroyed part of the Midwest corn crop. And, of course, oil prices took a jagged turn upward last Friday en route to their next stop: $150-a-barrel.
The New York Times reported Monday that rural Americans are being hit hardest by the rise in gasoline prices. Duh. It's worst, naturally, in the big southern states where wages are low and the distances are vast. There's a reason why Nascar is the second-biggest religion down there: the automobile rescued southerners from the tyranny of geography. Cheap gas allowed them to build a "new " economy based mainly on the construction of suburban sprawl. In the process it deified the pickup truck. Guess what? The rural South made a big mistake. The Dukes of Hazard show is now drawing to a close. They are about to take a turn back to being what they were before the Second World War: an agricultural backwater. God knows what will happen to asteroid belts of "production housing" and big box shopping outside the relatively tiny pre-automobile cores of places like Houston and Atlanta.
The New York Times made a particularly inane point in their lead business section story today (Rural U.S. Takes Worst Hit as Gas Tops $4 Average) saying:
...Sociologists and economists who study rural poverty say the gasoline crisis in the rural South, if it persists, could accelerate population loss and decrease the tax base in some areas as more people move closer to urban manufacturing jobs.
Is it possible, nobody informed the reporters (and editors!) that A.) America has already hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs; and B.) That much of the little manufacturing that remains is not located in any cities per se?
So we now head into the general election. One thing the pundits of the mainstream media seem to miss is how much more room for economic carnage there is in the months remaining. They seem to be laying their current odds on the idea that McCain and Obama are starting on a "level playing field." In fact, McCain is already up to his hips in trouble from his sheer association with the Republican establishment, which will be so badly discredited by the shattered economy that it may actually go the same route as the 19th century whig party and dissolve in a putrid vapor of fecklessness. By November, the Republicans will be viewed as the party that wrecked the nation, and McCain will be in a hole so deep (still on the 20-yard-line by the way) that nobody will be able to see his lips move.
It was a relief, at long last, to see the odious Hillary step aside on Saturday -- though she could not have engineered a more self-glorifying exit. There is talk, all of a sudden, about a President Obama perhaps stashing Hillary in the Supreme Court seat currently occupied by Ruth Badar Ginsburg, whose health is failing. I'd like to see Hillary packed off there. It would get her out of the senate. You can't really grandstand on the Supreme Court. The nation -- if it remains a nation -- could forget about her.
Well, here we are about twenty minutes from Wall Street's Monday open. I imagine it's going to be quite a day. Over 90-degrees and oil cutting its overnight losses. Praise the lord and pass the Xanax.
NVDL: Well Jim's fears proved to be unfounded in the microcosm of just today. That said, I have breached the topic in broad strokes, and it is staggering how intelligent people don't even begin to have a grasp of what is going on. I emailed a well-respected economics reporter, and provided oil drum links in the article. It was the first time the writer had ever seen or thought about these topics and thanked me for the info. And this reporter basically had one of the best reactions I've seen in a while to what is quickly becoming a foregone conclusion. There is still a very large group who are confused, and hopeful. Trapped in daydreams of how life used to be.The mainstream though is starting to 'get it'. The front page of the Sunday Times said it best:
It’s Crunch Time: Signs that consumers are not coping (in SA) include:
# Nearly 2000 properties across the country are being auctioned each month;
# Some property sellers are so desperate they are settling for as little as half their asking price; and
# Vehicle repossessions have shot up by 25% — one bank took back 1400 vehicles in the first two months of this year.
Of course, 3 months ago if you were talking about high fuel prices or anything else along those lines you were still being called 'negative'. Now, of course it's too late. You can be positive, great, go for it. But also enjoy saying bye bye to your house, carand the feel good factor that you fought to hard to maintain. But hey, stay positive folks. You'll need to now. And that includes me. My landlady said she will be increasing my rent by R500 to R4000 p.m. Yay.
Monday, June 09, 2008
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Will the People's Princess Please Step Forward
There was, once, I assure you, a Princess Grace, Katherine Hepburn, Princess Diana and now...who...which women basically defines our world...a princess for our time? Oprah comes close, but she's too old. Paris Hilton is pretty enough, but spoilt and dumb. Hillary Clinton is too masculine and frankly, manipulative. So whose it? Who is it going to be?
Nicole Kidman might do it but I don't remember her name or face associated with any charity work. Sharon Stone has done more, but her branding was bad in a Basic Instinct sort of way. There is no one ought there that we can call the People's Princess.
In this sense, Princess Diana's death left the world in a terrible vacuum that has never been filled. A rags to riches princess (well, her rags were Middle Class weren't they), she spent her time serving charities and appearing to genuinely care. She brought about real differences. She showed us what it is was like to be an unhappily married woman, but she also showed how one could fight back, and why. She was a metaphor for the plight of women of her time. And now?
Women have become more powerful, hardened, and a little lost. Women have become more like men: breadwinners, tough, resilient, enduring, single, even predatory. Men have become more like women - they've had to in this world - learning how to communicate, be sensitive, defer, be malleable and non-aggressive.
But every Prince is looking for a Princess (sweet, moral, beautiful and with all the grace that the role implies) and every Princess seeks a Prince (charming, powerful, handsome and the ability to take responsibility, to be a leader, to take tough action when required). We've reached a point where it's all pretty mixed up. The sexes have become queer and confused.
Nicole Kidman might do it but I don't remember her name or face associated with any charity work. Sharon Stone has done more, but her branding was bad in a Basic Instinct sort of way. There is no one ought there that we can call the People's Princess.
In this sense, Princess Diana's death left the world in a terrible vacuum that has never been filled. A rags to riches princess (well, her rags were Middle Class weren't they), she spent her time serving charities and appearing to genuinely care. She brought about real differences. She showed us what it is was like to be an unhappily married woman, but she also showed how one could fight back, and why. She was a metaphor for the plight of women of her time. And now?
Women have become more powerful, hardened, and a little lost. Women have become more like men: breadwinners, tough, resilient, enduring, single, even predatory. Men have become more like women - they've had to in this world - learning how to communicate, be sensitive, defer, be malleable and non-aggressive.
But every Prince is looking for a Princess (sweet, moral, beautiful and with all the grace that the role implies) and every Princess seeks a Prince (charming, powerful, handsome and the ability to take responsibility, to be a leader, to take tough action when required). We've reached a point where it's all pretty mixed up. The sexes have become queer and confused.
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