Sunday, December 06, 2009

The truth is, humanity is facing a future that is at best uncertain and at worst apocalyptic

SHOOT: Not a bad article although a bit thin on facts, and these insights are already dated by the standards of Peak Oil commentators. Not much mention here on urbanism or economics [currencies in crisis] or facts or figures on actual extraction or decline rates, and no graphs. But a useful commentary for the amateur who hasn't taken this issue - of energy, and the climate - seriously until now. That includes the magazine publishing this piece.

France exports 18% of its energy production, 90% of which comes from about 60 nuclear power plants. South Africa's electricity production is overwhelmingly dependent on coal (93%). China is building two large coal-fired power stations a week.

The nations set to gather soon in Copenhagen are on a twisting, misty, potholed road in a car with one rickety headlight and hardly any white lines to drive by. The truth is, humanity is facing a future that is at best uncertain and at worst apocalyptic.

But the problem isn’t refinery capacity (itself a highly variable issue), but the overall supply of oil and gas – including a scarcity of supply of offshore rigs and associated infrastructure, which take time to build and bring on line.
For a start, while the US expects 900 of its next 1,000 power plants to use natural gas, China (which has four times the population – some 1.3 billion people) is building two large coal-fired power stations a week.
Photo: Electric cars can be downright sexy, as the soon-to-be launched Tesla Model S easily proves.
South Africa's electricity production is overwhelmingly dependent on coal (93%), with Koeberg’s nuclear plant in the Western Cape supplying only 6%.

May the future have mercy on us.

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