Thursday, February 12, 2009

NVDL comments on the budget

Without looking at the budget what is needed is:

- investments in alternative transport arrangements/infrastrucutre
- investments in retrofitting suburbia or developing walkable properties
- investments in alternative energy technologies
- a transition from a growth based economic mindset to 'sustainability'
- investing in uplifting and educating the poor
- substantial investments in crime and disease fighting

Manuel has done a fairly decent job in about half of the above, and can be credited for not going the bailout route (for mines or other companies). He is attempting to cushion the lower income groups and stimulate employment. Great. Like other Finance Ministers, he does not yet believe that we're headed not for a recession but a Depression,and thus the top 5 investments become crucial.

There is a sense that our energy conundrum is over because demand seems to have subsided. This is an illusion. Demand Destruction masks ordinary depletion, and concomitant supply destruction (of energy resources).

We are fortunate to have emerged from the financial crisis with our banks and finance sector virtually intact. This means some of the great powerhouses of the world have slid backwards, whereas we have stayed the same, but in effect, moved forward. This country could conceivably become a financial powerhouse...assuming we're able to function with some political credibility, and get out of what appears to be a government bent on corrupting itself.
He said at a media briefing that while "stimulus is fashionable" SA had decided not to go that route to avoid overburdening future generations.
The budget review added that "a lower tax burden combined with strong growth in public spending signals a strong fiscal stimulus to the economy over the period ahead."
Manuel said the economy was expected to grow 1,2% this year down from 3,1% last year but was expected to strengthen sharply to 3% next year and 4% in 2011.
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