Monday, January 05, 2009

2008 - the year (some of us) woke up, and the world economy crumbled

Oh, and the economy played a critical role in the outcome of an epochal presidential election. No little thing, that. And finally, as the year came to a close, we can try to enjoy our holidays while wondering whether the really bad stuff is only just getting started. 2009 could be much worse than 2008.

That's quite a year, and what's most astonishing is how much has happened just since September, and how dramatically the stakes have grown. In April, I wrote a story for Salon asking the intentionally provocative question: "Is this recession another Great Depression?" But even I was skeptical of the thesis -- at the time I wasn't totally sure we were in a recession. I certainly did not anticipate that before the end of the year the treasury secretary and Federal Reserve chairman would be begging Congress for $700 billion to rescue failing financial institutions, or that General Motors would be facing a real likelihood of bankruptcy, or that the president-elect would be promising a half-trillion-dollar economic recovery plan as his first order of business. Heck, back then I even dared suggest the possibility that the economic stimulus checks due to arrive in taxpayer mailboxes in May might avert a serious downturn.

Ho ho ho. - Salon
clipped from www.salon.com
Of all the economic earthquakes that racked the global economy in 2008, one temblor ranks supreme. Alan Greenspan's declaration to Congress on Oct. 23: "I made a mistake."

We now know, in other words, that left to themselves, economic actors do not pursue rational, sustainable courses of action. Greed and self-interest will steer you into the ditch every time.

There were warnings along the way. Cassandras who feared that exotic financial innovation, specifically unregulated at the behest of both Democratic and Republican politicians, was setting the stage for a major systemic shock. But their voices were drowned out by a chorus of status quo defenders who told us, again and again, that financial innovation was making the world a safer, less risky place.

The phrase "well-regulated markets" suddenly rings with a new vigor. And Wall Street's masters of the universe will be the butt of unkind jokes for decades to come.

Alan Greenspan made a mistake. And a new world is born.

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