Wednesday, September 12, 2007

The OPEC Con


The reality is that output cannot be raised. World global supplies have been at maximum for some time, and we've seen a gradual downward slide in supply and capacity. Can you imagine the worldwide fallout (and catastrophe) were it to leak out that this was the case? That worldwide demand is now greater than supply (and this trend will worsen over time)?

The result will be runaway prices, or recession, or both.
Opec's saying they will raise output by November is a bit like a weatherman promising cooler temperatures in winter. It's likely to happen anyway (since the global demand curve for fuel is at its lowest in November).

From BBC.com:
Opec agrees to raise oil output

Opec controls more than a third of global oil suppliesOpec members have agreed to increase oil production by 500,000 barrels a day to meet concerns about rising demand.
The 12-nation oil producers' cartel agreed to support a proposal from influential member Saudi Arabia to raise daily production from 1 November.

Oil prices have been touching record highs on fears of a growing imbalance between supply and demand. But despite Opec's decision US light crude settled at a record closing price of $78.23, up 74 cents.

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