Friday, December 02, 2005

Heating Oil, Gasoline Rise on Lower Supply, Colder Weather


 Posted by PicasaHas it always been the case that oil prices rise when then weather gets colder? So the colder it gets, the steeper the rise? Well, yes, in the case of the Northern Hemisphere, and is especially the Eastern United States, which as far as I know is the world's largest consumer of heating oil.

I'd like to see what the exact correlation is between the seasons and the price of oil. I know there is a correlation, but we may see that correlation begin to change. There's a summer peak (during America's summer driving season) and then a winter peak, which is now. The winter peak is a higher peak for oil.
Perhaps global warming will help us during the winters. We'll have to turn to God (for air conditioning) in the summer...well, we might.

Like other writers, I predicted a sharp rise in oil prices around Thanksgiving (end of November). I even wrote what some might think was a bold prediction. I was fact checking my own article (published in two weeks), and was looking for the reference to 'Thanksgiving'. The editor had already removed it. If it had been up to me, I would have left it in. Firstly, because the premise is correct. The timing may not be.
Secondly because people should be concerned, and should begin to address their consumption, even if it is just an awareness of what they are doing, how much energy is involved, and how much of what we do is meaningless and wasteful. Those are adjectives to describe entertainment, and they are spoil-the-fun words in that context. Sorry about that. But it's like any game (and Peak Oil is a the most serious game), once it's over, it is Game Over. When you start again, the rules have changed, and you start off with less energy, and fewer lives. And so on and so (after every successive crash/game over.
People don't realise that Peak Oil doesn't represent a sudden new situation, it represents an increasingly critical reality. When one crisis is averted or survived, get ready for the next, and even worse.

What we do have today that we didn't have in 1980 is a lot more data and engineering. Unfortunately we have a lot less energy to run our dreams. And people seem to forget that. We will see, in the coming years, new prioritities...in how lifestyles are defined. Cool will be for those items most energy efficient.
Big and bulky vehicles like hummers will be seen as obscene (like wearing a fur coat).
And we'll see a divide between the super rich and the middle classes, who will become increasingly poor. I'd predict battles raging between these classes.

Meanwhile, I for one am grateful for lowish fuel prices. It will be another summer on the Cheap Oil account, and although it won't be an endless summer, maybe we can be forgiven for wishing it was.

Bloomberg - USA
1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil, heating oil and gasoline rose for a second day after a report showed an unexpected decline in US supplies of the motor fuel and ...

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