Friday, July 17, 2009

Tour de France is still anyone's race - well, if your name is Lance Armstrong or Alberto Contador

"If Lance attacks, I will not follow him,” he said. “There are other riders who have to chase him down.” - Contador

“At the start in Monaco, they designated Contador as team leader, but then didn’t protect him,” Bernard Hinault, five-time Tour champion, said of the Astana team. “Then he rebelled [at Andorra]. That’s logical, but from now on between them, it’s war.”

SHOOT: I think the odds favour Contador, but Armstrong is a good strategist, and he gets stronger the longer the tour. Contador's big move on Arcalis only gave him 18 seconds or so, and Armstrong is still only 2 seconds behind.

In that light, last Friday’s summit finish in Andorra was ideal terrain for him to strike the first blow. Yet it was Contador who attacked and took the initiative.

Even so, Armstrong’s track record is daunting. Between 1999 and 2005, he asserted his authority by winning nine time trials and no less than 11 mountain stages. Intriguingly, of those 20 stage victories during his seven-year reign, ten came in the Tour’s final week and six came in the Alps.

Despite that, based on the results so far this year, in Monaco’s opening time trial and Andorra’s summit finish, he will be unable to contain Contador. On the other hand, the Armstrong of old usually got stronger as the Tour went on, which hints that he may be at his best as the race reaches its climax in the Alps.

Astana rider Alberto Contador (Getty Images)
The pack of riders cycle during the 9th stage of the Tour de France (Images)
“At the start in Monaco, they designated Contador as team leader, but then didn’t protect him,” Bernard Hinault, five-time Tour champion, said of the Astana team.
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