Monday, July 20, 2009

Tito leaves and so does inflation targeting - Gill Marcus in, but will policy change?

SHOOT: According to Pravin Gordhan policy isn't going to change with Marcus at the helm, but I'm not so sure.
Pundits are saying that South Africa's [previous] policy of inflation targeting is stifling economic growth. It is. You're a supporter of inflation targetting if you're a wealthy corporation or businessman and you're in for yourself, to make more money. You don't care about unemployment. If you take the view that the majority of people in South Africa are unemployed, and that if unemployment rises enough, you could have a situation where the unemployed are the dominant 'party' in the South Africa. Or, put even simply, the majority. If the majority are unemployed, you can see how policy would change. Government in South Africa needs to get more people employed and that means stimulating the economy through developments in infrastructure, such as public transport, construction [New Urbanist walkable community stuff] and possible rural organic farming projects for the poor.

Joseph Stiglitz said this recently: "In some cases bringing inflation down through the raising interest rates was akin to the "cure being worse than the disease", as wage inflation was brought under control at the expense of job losses.
More: http://www.nickvanderleek.com/2009/07/nobel-memorial-prize-winning-economist.html
clipped from www.thetimes.co.za

RESERVE Bank governor Tito Mboweni’s change of heart about his stay at the central bank has raised questions about whether his departure is the result of the government bowing to pressure from the unions.

President Jacob Zuma announced yesterday that he had re-appointed Mboweni to serve a third term as governor, but had to replace him with ANC stalwart Gill Marcus after Mboweni expressed his wish to leave by November.

Although the appointment of Marcus — a former Reserve Bank deputy governor and now chair of Absa — has been widely welcomed, it remains to be seen whether Mboweni’s departure was influenced by calls from an ever-strengthening Cosatu for him to be removed from office. The union federation wants a review of monetary policy, believing that inflation targeting is stifling economic growth. It has said categorically that it wants Mboweni removed.

Commentators doubt that a policy change is imminent, given Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s recent statements
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