SHOOT: That [growth projection] is perhaps an optimistic claim given the macroeconomic situation. If you've lost your job, and you're struggling to pay for food (and you're at the bottom of the human food chain) the last thing on your mind is going to be internet access. Corporates are probabluy going to seize on internet use (in terms of burning bandwidth) as a major way to save on expenses. Other factors he doesn't consider is the increase in the costs of computers and ordinary electricity, and a plethora of bankruptcies of those SME's he mentions. But I hope Goldstuck's right. He's right about the phone not being ideal to access the net (see immediately below). And the internet can, after all, do a lot of good when its users leave off gaming and scouring the web for porn.
“The cell phone right now is a very crude device for accessing the Internet,” says Goldstuck. “We will need to see great improvements in both usability and people’s ability to use advanced features on their cell phones, and that will take another few years.”
“The cell phone right now is a very crude device for accessing the Internet,” says Goldstuck. “We will need to see great improvements in both usability and people’s ability to use advanced features on their cell phones, and that will take another few years.”
JOHANNESBURG:- South Africa’s Internet population is expected to grow as much in the next five years as it has in the 15 years since the Internet became commercially available in South Africa. This is among the startling conclusions contained in the Internet Access in South Africa 2008 report, released today by World Wide Worx. The report shows that the number of Internet users in South Africa grew by 12.5% to 4,6-million in 2008 – the first time since 2001 it has grown by more than 8%. The increased growth rate is expected to continue for the next five years, taking the Internet user population to the 9-million mark. “Four major factors will drive this growth,” says Arthur Goldstuck, managing director of World Wide Worx. “The first and most obvious development is the arrival of a new undersea telecommunications cable at the end of June. The second factor is the granting of telecommunications licences
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I've always been accused of being pessimistic for these views! First time someone has said I'm optimistic on cellphone Internet access. We've aggressively challenged claims of millions of people using their cellphones for Internet access, and have shown that, as at the end of last year, only 180 000 South Africans were using the cellphone as a primary form of Internet access. That number will not pass the million mark for another 3 or 4 years. Hardly optimistic!
ReplyDeleteThe 10-million figure bandied around is for WAP usage, which includes clicking on a link sent by SMS in order to download music and games on phones. Having said all that, don't underestimate individuals. If the phones become easier to use, the functionality for Internet access improves, and there is a compelling reason for going online, people will do so.
Finally, don't be caught up in short-term thinking: our projections for cellphone Internet access uptake see it starting to happen in a big way from around 2013. The maroeconomic situation you refer to is the 2009 picture.
Thanks for your feedback Arthur.
ReplyDeleteYou could be right and I hope you are.
At the moment I discount almost entirely the mobile interface in South Africa. It may be overly simplistic but I almost never use my cellphone online, and nothing/very little encourages me to do so. I see very little of the sort of everyday online use in South Africa that I saw while in South Korea. One reason is our internet population is really really tiny. 4.6 million. I'd need to be convinced that mobile internet use menaingfully influences these figures.
Music downloads are an option but again this starts to look less like growth given the macroeconomic situation (see below)
I'm aware that South African teenagers and kids at school do use the internet but it's a minimal use, mostly for Facebook updates. That's not 'real' internet use as far as I'm concerned, but it's a start.
I know a lot of Americans are consuming news on their phones, so we probably need to figure out what they are doing, or add 250 million consumers here, and quick.
The Chinese say with anything less than 5 million users, investments in the internet are a bit silly. We may wake up to the full portent of this reality over the next year or two.
Overall I'd say South African cellphone users are trying to cut down their monthly fees right now (which explains Vodacoms recent 'Gift' bundles).
Regarding you final comments, I know the general consensus is for a 'brief' recession. I (and a number of commentators out there) see a permanent contraction, and have predicted this since 2005. There are many reasons for this, but chief among them are severe contractions in global credit which are linked to the other - hyperinflation from energy costs (fuel, electricity and food) reducing purchasing power and discretionary spending everywhere.