It's Cool by the Pool - Right? [COLUMN]
When I saw this headline - DON'T PANIC - on The Times' poster my spirits lifted. I thought they'd done an analysis, and were commenting insightfully on the conundrum we face in South Africa economically and otherwise.
Without having looked at the paper, my inner dialogue kicked in and I said to myself...Don't Panic? Perhaps we should be. Not apeshit all out craziness, but maybe we need to panic for a full five minutes and take down a few notes.
As a matter of fact earlier this week I watched a documentary downloaded about 5 years ago in South Korea titled The Impending Stock Market Crash. It was made in the early nineties and showed to what extent the USA was borrowing far beyond its means, hardly even able to make the interest payments on debt. USA's borrowing was also far more than any other country. And what was the scariest of all was that in a scenario of Economic Depression, the Middle Class essentially get wiped out through a mixture of taxes, pensions that evaporate along with jobs and all the rest. It becomes a scenario of the government versus the middle class. See, the resource base of the government is the middle class, and most of the time the government basically parasites off its host, but as long as the economy swims along, the host doesn't fuss too much. In a Depression scenario it becomes a case of the Government turning from parasite to cancer, becoming a terminal illness to the Middle Classes. The Government in the final analysis uses the tools at its disposal to crush (if it cannot control) the population - the police and the military.
Our prospects in South Africa seem okay on the face of it. We have our endowments of coal which allow us to run SASOL (climate change notwithstanding). Our banks are looking good. Our economy is in postitive territory - barely.
The World Economic Forum this week rated South Africa’s banks the 15th most secure out of 134 countries rated, beating even Switzerland (16th), Germany (39th), the US (40th) and Britain (44th).
“That is a very important accolade,” Manuel said, adding that strict bank regulation was among measures that had built confidence in South Africa’s financial system.
And we'll get a little more bounce around 2010 as the rest of the world slips. On the other hand, we have issues to worry about that might be worth panicking about. If you thought the Xenophobia in 2008 was bad, well, it was one little candle on a birthday cake compared to what is going to happen this year.
South Africans, especially the working class, are used to employing overthrow tactics for what they want. They're easy to incite. Give them something to gripe about and they'll take to the streets. There is also a large population of criminals already out there. And there is a large population of sick people.
Looting by ordinary civilians and criminal anarchy the likes of which we have never seen are likely to flare up as unemployment and economic hardship worsen. This will flare up as the perception of hopelessness sets in, as it surely must. I'd anticipate this happening in winter - in July or August this year. Unlike 2008, it will not blow over in a week, it will last a few dark months, perhaps the entire spring.
Sickness is likely to cut stressed populations down like wheat in the near future. Both ordinary influenzas and also exotic diseases riding on the back on new climate patterns, shifting into new areas. We will see cholera breaking out again and again along with more nasty virusses - Ebola, H5N1 and others. These opportunistic outbreaks will gain ground as we scramble for fewer and fewer resources.
Food shortages will be felt worldwide in 2009, probably around September/October/November when the US harvesting season kicks in (or would have).
The other aspect is ESKOM. We aren't out of the woods in terms of supply of sparks, we never were. Our population is growing, and the number of households going onto the grid is increasing every day. Will ESKOM get the financing it needs? The only positive is that some massive Aluminium smelters have gone offline as the auto industry has disappeared. Despite this, it is a matter of time before electricity shortages kick in, and before that, we'll see prices going up when most ordinary people can least afford it.
It was a big mistake to not pursue those pebble bed reactors, and one generations after this one are likely to rue.
Jon thinks that there's gonna be a nuclear war. - WATCHMEN
The tensions between countries has never been greater. There are flashpoints now in the Ukraine (between Russia and Europe), in Europe itself, especially the eastern Bloc, in Israel and Gaza with Iran next door, and North Korea finding themselves unused to the position of not being given handouts whenever they rattle their sabres. There's also Pakistan and Afghanistan.
We are fortunate to be where we are in relatively isolated South Africa when contemplating the probability of a nuclear missile strike. It is terrible to say, but we are likely to see this materialise soon. I discussed with a friend recently that I thought this is more likely to occur on American soil than anywhere else. The Bible, incidentally, makes no mention of the USA in any of its prophecies. It doesn't feature on the map at all.
In any event, here is a small list of do's and don'ts for the coming catastrophes:
1) Do eat healthy food. You are what you eat. Don't eat junk, don't be a junkie, be a healthy person. Eat plenty of fresh fruit and vegetables. Eating right also immediately addresses one of the primary problems each of us cause - aggregate demand.
2) Do exercise. A healthy body is a healthy mind, and a healthy mind is becoming a rare commodity today.
3) Make something or do something that is useful to your community. Start a blog, start a garden or a forum. Fix things. Contribute. Become a valued member of your neighborhood.
Don't:
1) Watch too much television, or movies. Think what you are doing each day...think how this adds up to the general malaise. Start helping. Stop watching Idols and other useless drivel.
2) Expect heroes or leaders to save you.
3) Make bad decisions...such as turning to alcohol, or antidepressants. Reality is unlikely to show you much mercy if you turn your back on it in the coming difficult period.
Rorschach's Journal: October 12th 1985. Dog carcass in alley this morning, tire tread on burst stomach. This city is afraid of me. I have seen its true face. The streets are extended gutters and the gutters are full of blood and when the drains finally scab over, all the vermin will drown. The accumulated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout 'Save us!'
“Anticipate changes,” said Manuel, “but there is no cause to panic.”
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