Friday, September 05, 2008

Oil is about to rocket back to $150

NVDL: Demand may seem to be tapering off as oil prices approach $100. I sense a great deal of complacency. The reason demand is tapering off to begin with is the hammering the US economy (and the ROW) took from the oil price to start off with.

Economists and everyone else seem to froget that whatever happens, we remain addicted to the stuff, and September and October are not months when oil prices/demand are particularly high. I believe towards the middle of September, heading into October, oil prices will show a lot of upward zing. The $147 record will be broken in mid-November - that's if a Hurricane doesn't suck up Gulf infrastructure and spit the pieces out all over Texas. If that happens, $200 by October, and start setting your house on fire (call your insurance to claim some stay-alive money).

CNN: While no significant damage has been reported since Gustav made landfall in Louisiana as a powerful hurricane on Monday, many refineries, pipeline pumping stations and port facilities remain without power from the electricity grid. The main utility there says full restoration could take weeks.
clipped from money.cnn.com

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Short-term stresses appearing in the U.S. petroleum supply chain following Hurricane Gustav may lead to higher gasoline and diesel prices in the long term.

The perception that oil product supply problems will be quickly resolved explains the discrepancy between spot and futures prices.
Traders expect most refiners affected by Hurricane Gustav to be up and running by the time delivery against the October Nymex contract rolls around. Also, before the hurricane struck, U.S. gasoline demand was weak, and the system had some slack. This stands in sharp contrast to the situation in 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck when demand was growing.

However, perceptions in oil markets can quickly shift. If refiners take longer than expected to achieve normal processing rates or if inventories plunge to uncomfortably low levels, then prices may be pressured upward.


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