The world has based all its systems, all its processes, indeed its entire homeostasis - to use the biological term - on a gradual energy slide, a slow dipping in the energy supply curve. Even the eventuality of a dip is a serious dilemma, but a steep decline will certaintly propel our species into the darkest period in its history. War, but also what Cheney has called, The Infinite War.
There are ways to ameliorate whatever the future holds. We can begin to adapt and make changes now - before we HAVE to. I don't expect people to do this of course. People tend to make those inconvenient changes only when FORCED to (not through deduction or intelligent reasoning).
Of course I'm also aware that the world is designed to function around basic concepts such as motoring and suburbia. While we can't pretend these systems don't exist, we can begin to exercise choices and use options now, not to CONTINUE TO DELUDE ourselves, not to perpetuate our investment in these systems. Of course, for this to be a sane and rational course of action, you really do have to believe that suburbia, the world's highway systems, the Wal-Marts, Pick 'n Pays, the shipping lanes and fast food courts, don't have a future. Until you truly believe that, you're one of those sleepwalking into a future that gets worse by the day.
The irony is this: it may make sense to ignore, and pretend away the future until the last possible moment. To party until the last drop. Why? Because what happens after that is difficult to contemplate, and few of us do. I can't say I blame them.
From The Oil Drum:
1)If the global decline rate of existing production of 4.5% continues, oil production is likely to plateau at a level of 90 million barrels per day around 2010 until the end of the next decade, after which a moderate to sharp decline sets in.
2)If the global decline rate of existing production of 4.5% slows down to 2%, thanks to the addition of 500 billion barrels due to reserve growth, production will likely increase with some bumps towards 95 million barrels per day at the end of the next decade, after which a slow to moderate decline sets in.
3)If the global decline rate of existing production of 4.5% increases to 8%, due to the effect that the end of the era of giant oil fields and declining deepwater production has, production will likely peak around 2010 at 88 million barrels per day, declining slightly to 80 million barrels per day at the end of the next decade, after which a sharp decline sets in.
Discussion
Presently there is a converging agreement that we are going to enter a period in which supply can no longer meet demand, giving way to sustained high oil prices. Either because of the expectation of a long production plateau for one to several decades, or a peak after which a sharp decline sets in.
My scenario exercise supports mainly the view of a peak with a sharp decline. As to what is the most likely scenario, I expect that the increase towards a higher decline rate, as shown in figure 8, is going to occur.
Crucial:
1a. Extremely significant or important: a crucial problem.
1b. Vital to the resolution of a crisis; decisive: a crucial election. See Synonyms at decisive.
2. Archaic Having the form of a cross; cross-shaped.
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